River Flood Watch 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
612 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY ON THE PLAINS...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...

CURRENTLY...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS AT ALL STATIONS EXCEPT PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES
WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WERE LURKING JUST
SOUTH OF COLORADO ACROSS THE OK AND TX PHDLS. DRY AIR REMAINED OVER
PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES ALONG WITH ALL OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS.
DEWPOINTS THESE REGIONS WERE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

TODAY...THE TWO MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WX AND FIRE WX.

THE FIRE WX THREAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EL
PASO...PUEBLO AND FREMONT COUNTY REGIONS AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW
LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15%. I AM CONFIDENT CRITERIA WILL BE
MET ACROSS FREMONT AND EL PASO COUNTIES...BUT PARTS OF PUEBLO
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS...MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA
DUE TO WEAKER WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MIN RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15%.

PLEASE NOTE THAT I ADDED NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING.

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH -9 TO -10C AT
500. LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT PRIME HEATING.
SHEAR IS APPARENT...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...IE...ABOVE THE LCL TO THE
EL...IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. GIVEN THE T/TD SPREADS MAIN THREAT WILL
BE SVR WIND GUSTS FOLLOWED BY HAIL. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A TOR...AND SPC HAS A 2% RISK OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. THE TOR THREAT
WOULD BE CONTINGENT ON A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE PLAINS...AND I DO NOT SEE THIS HAPPENING AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER
VARIABLE WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TOR THREAT WOULD BE DEWPOINTS
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FCSTD VALUES...AND ONCE AGAIN I DO
NOT SEE THIS HAPPENING.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS IS WE MAY SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER
AREAS WHICH REALLY NEED IT.

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM...INCLUDING
BUT NOT LIMITED TO ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES AND THE
INCREASING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW-MELT...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT TIMES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND ELEVATED
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE HOVERS BETWEEN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON STATE
THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTS INTO THE MANITOBA CANADA PROVINCE BY LATER
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM OFF OF
THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO JUST OFF OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATER SUNDAY. UPPER LOW IS THEN
PROJECTED TO HEAD NORTH INTO IDAHO BY NEXT TUESDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER MODELS/SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT PERIODIC
INTRUSIONS OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD IMPACT
CWFA(ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS) AT TIMES DURING THE
LONGER TERM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS TOUCHED UPON IN PREVIOUS FEW DISCUSSIONS...VARYING DEGREES OF
LEE SIDE TROUGHING SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS OF COLORADO DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM.

AM STILL DEPICTING ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE LONGER TERM OVER THE CWFA WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LESS FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES RETURN
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM(WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY). AT THIS TIME...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT
TUESDAY WHILE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY.

FINALLY...FOR A BRIEF DISCUSSION ABOUT LONGER TERM FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS PLEASE SEE MY LONGER
TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) FIRE WEATHER
SECTION/DISCUSSION AND HYDROLOGICAL SECTION/DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDER THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS MAINLY S AND E OF
PUEBLO COUNTY DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE THREAT MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OVER BY LATE EVENING. \/HODANISH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
NEW FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE REGARDING FIRE WX. IN ADDITION...WE ARE
LIKELY GOING TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING TODAY OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY S AND E OF PUEBLO COUNTY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL
BE ABOVE 15% S AND E OF PUEBLO COUNTY...AND THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
WETTING RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY START SOME NEW
FIRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HI RES SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL OF QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING OVER A GOOD PART OF LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLD DRY LTG STRIKES ACROSS ALL OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
AT THIS TIME...STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY
FUELS...STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM APPROXIMATELY NOON MDT
THURSDAY UNTIL AROUND 9 PM MDT THURSDAY.

ALSO...LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
IT IS GOING TO BE WARM OVER THE MTNS TODAY...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
IT IS LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS
TONIGHT...SO EXPECT CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT NEXT 24H.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
HEALTHY SNOW-MELT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESCALATING DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL START SWELLING AND
RISING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER ABOVE PUEBLO
AND ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER TRIBUTARIES ABOVE SALIDA...WHERE THE
SNOW PACK HAS BEEN THE DEEPEST THIS YEAR. LATEST HYDROLOGIC
FORECASTS FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER INDICATE THAT THE
ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR LEADVILLE MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY
THIS OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. LOOK FOR WMO HEADER FGUS75 OR
YOU CAN VIEW THE OUTLOOK ON OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUB UNDER
TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224>237.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ222-224-226>228.

&&

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