Freeze Watch 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
314 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...MAIN CONCERNS IS SNOW ACROSS THE S MTNS FOLLOWED BY FREEZING
TEMPS ON THE PLAINS...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS SURGING DOWN THE PLAINS AT THIS
TIME (2 PM). FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE PUEBLO/EL PASO BORDER SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH OF LAMAR. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLOUD UP. UP IN THE
C MTNS...SNOW WAS OCCURRING AS PER RADAR AND KLXV OBS.

TONIGHT...

SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE S MTNS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTNS....WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE N SANGRES.
SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS TELLER
COUNTY...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE CANCELLED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF TELLER COUNTY (I DID KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR THE TOP OF PIKES
PEAK).

I AM CONCERNED THAT NOT MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DOWN NEAR KTAD WHERE SNOW WILL
FALL OVER THE RATON MESA AND THEN BACK OVER THE S SANGRES. THE NAM
WAS MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PRECIP WHILE THE GFS STILL HAD SOME LIGHT
QPF. HOWEVER...ALL SIMULATIONS ARE BACKING OFF OF THE PRECIP OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. I SHOULD ADD THE 18Z NAM JUST CAME IN...AND IT
HAS  NO  PRECIP FALLING OVER COLORADO SPRINGS OR PUEBLO.

THIS SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLIES WITH IT AND THESE EASTERLIES
WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. LIKEWISE...WE SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL ON THE
VALLEY FLOOR AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY NEAR THE SAN JUANS AND LAGARITAS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES IN AFFECT FOR
TONIGHT. AS A REMINDER...FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED IF TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING ON OR AFTER 01 MAY OVER THE SE
COLORADO REGION.

SUNDAY...

SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE S EXTENT OF THE CWA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THIS INCLUDES THE RATON MESA...S
SANGRES...S SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE E SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE WETS AND S
SANGRES SHOULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. 4-8"
SHOULD FALL OVER THE REST OF THE MTNS EXCEPT THE TOP OF PIKES PEAK
WHICH SHOULD SEE 3-6".

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S
ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES UP IN EL PASO
COUNTY (30S). \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES(INITIALLY UNSEASONABLY COOL AND THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND) AND POTENTIAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWFA ON
FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF MY
LONGER TERM CYCLE(ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA) AS
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AT 00Z MONDAY SLOWLY
SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS/FAR EAST-CENTRAL REGION BY 18Z MONDAY
AND THEN WELL EAST OF THE CWFA BY 06Z TUESDAY.

AS THIS MOVES NEAR THE REGION...HAVE PAINTED ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE OR LESS TO LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS(BASICALLY
OVER SECTIONS OF ZONES 74 AND 75) OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LATE MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH OVER ZONES 83>89 AND 93>99 FROM 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW 32F OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THIS AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WARMER AND MORE TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REGION.

SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF THE
LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AS
ADVECTING DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALLOWS LOCALIZED LIS TO DROP
TO -4C...LOCALIZED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN COMBINATION WITH 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDER INTO EASTERN GRIDS OF FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...LONGER TERM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER WITHIN A
CATEGORY OR TWO OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS ACROSS KCOS
AND KPUB FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. BRUNT OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL
TO THE WEST OF THE TWO TAF SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BETWEEN
04Z AND 10Z. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES AND CIGS SHOULD NOT GET INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.

I SHOULD STATE THAT THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND
INFERS LOWER CIGS AND LONGER PDS OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
DISCOUNTED THIS SIMULATION AS TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN DRYER CONDITIONS.

KALS WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD THIS FCST PD. DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE
IS ANTICIPATED AND THE EASTERLIES WILL GET INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LIKEWISE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FORMING ON THE E
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND SOME OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OVER
KALS. MAY NEED TO PLAY UP THE SNOW A BIT MORE IN THE KALS TAF...BUT
WILL WAIT TIL THE 18Z NAM TO COME IN TO MAKE ANY AMENDMENTS TO THE
TAF. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL IN
ALAMOSA...WITH 2-3" POSSIBLE. IF IT SNOWS IT WILL BE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ083>089-093>099.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>089-
093>099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060>063-065>073-076>078-082-087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ074-075-079-080.

&&

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