Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD HYDROLOGY SECTION AND ISSUE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG...MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO
LIFR CIGS...INCLUDING KCOS AND KPUB...FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR OR BETTER TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS AND MOISTURE
BACK OFF. THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...INCLUDING KALS...MAY
HIT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IN PASSING SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE MVFR TO VFR. VSBYS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR TO LIFR ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING KCOS AND
KPUB.  JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF THIS AT KALS. LW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 (OR MORE) INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY THIS EVENING...INCLUDING 4.03 INCHES SO FAR AT KCOS.
FOUNTAIN HAS EXCEEDED MINOR FLOOD STAGE FROM COLORADO SPRINGS DOWN
THROUGH FOUNTAIN...WITH THE FLOOD WAVE HEADED SOUTH INTO PUEBLO
COUNTY...WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PINON REACH.
ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL END UP IN THE ARKANSAS STARTING TOMORROW...
REACHING LA JUNTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOOD
FLOODING ALONG THE ARKANSAS AS THIS HAPPENS. WE ARE CONTINUING TO
MONITOR ALONG WITH THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER. DEPENDING ON HOW THE
WATER ATTENUATES...A FLOOD WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
MINOR FLOODING ALONG PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS EAST OF PUEBLO STARTING
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE RIVER THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED. LW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011/

SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

..LOTS OF RAIN THIS EVENING...

CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TS RAPIDLY SPREADING OVR MOST
OF OUR CWA. HEAVIEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE OVR
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY EL PASO COUNTY WHICH
SHOULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD QPF OF AN INCH OR MORE TONIGHT. TIGHTLY
WOUND UPPER LOW IS NOW OVR THE GRAND CANYON...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS A BIT
STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED FROM MODEL PROGS LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVING OVR ERN CO IS NOT AS STRONG AS
MODEL SIMULATIONS HAD INDICATED. AS A RESULT...WILL STILL SEE QUITE
A BIT OF QPF FOR THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...PARTICULARLY EARLY ON. STRONG WAA IS RESULTING IN HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS...AND SNOW ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMS MAY NOT VERIFY FOR
ELEVATIONS UNDER 12 K FEET. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS COULD GET A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY PIKES
PEAK...WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 30 DEG AND SNOWING. SO...WILL KEEP THE SNOW
ADVISORY GOING FOR TONIGHT. BIGGER ISSUE MAY BE ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER A WIDE
AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS THRU THU.

WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON THU AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
EJECTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND A FEW TS
STILL LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S
FOR THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH H7 TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEG HIGHER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 12K FEET ON THU. 44

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THU EVENING...WITH WEAK UPPER ENERGY
SHEARING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST PERHAPS PROVIDING SOME UPWARD
MOTION. BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAIN UPPER ENERGY LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY
LATE SUN. COMBINATION OF WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION GOING THROUGH SUN...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...LESSER CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES
MORE DOWNSLOPE IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGING NEAR THE KS BORDER. IN
GENERAL...KEPT A MIX OF SCATTERED POPS MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED POPS
LOWER ELEVATIONS GOING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FRI..PERHAPS CREEPING A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE SAT AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE PLAINS THE SUN...KNOCKING READINGS BACK TOWARD NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN. FOR NEXT WEEK...TREND TOWARD DRIER/WARMER WEATHER
DEVELOPS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S...THOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP ISOLATED ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSRA GOING...ESPECIALLY MON/TUE.

AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT TS AFFECT THE TAF SITES THRU
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR OR IFR FOR A
GOOD 9-12 H PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING....WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS/RA FOR KPUB AND KCOS IN PARTICULAR. AS
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL...COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIFR FROM BR DEVELOPING BY
EARLY THU MORNING. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE
12-18Z TIMEFRAME ON THU. 44

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
073-075-080-082.

&&

50/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
821 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-160230-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
821 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SPREADING EAST INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER EL PASO COUNTY THIS EVENING THAT HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING IN
COLORADO SPRINGS...AND ALONG FOUNTAIN CREEK. WHILE RAIN HAS
DECREASED IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THIS AREA.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND DIME SIZE HAIL. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

AREA WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND
11000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE SEEING HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 12000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...HAIL GENERALLY UNDER THE
SIZE OF PENNIES AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 12000 FEET FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

88/88

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE FOUNTAIN          38.73N 104.68W
09/14/2011  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0903 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE COLORADO SPRINGS   38.90N 104.74W
09/14/2011  E2.70 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT FLINTRIDGE AND DUBLIN

0917 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.88N 104.79W
09/14/2011  M2.57 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATED TOTAL

&&

KMOZLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
936 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E COLORADO SPRINGS    38.83N 104.71W
09/14/2011  M2.86 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

0931 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ENE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.86N 104.74W
09/14/2011  M2.72 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

0931 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FALCON                  38.93N 104.62W
09/14/2011  M2.81 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

&&

KMOZLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
955 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E COLORADO SPRINGS    38.83N 104.71W
09/14/2011  M3.18 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

0953 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W FALCON              38.93N 104.68W
09/14/2011  M4.17 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WOODMEN AND MARKSCHEFFEL

&&

KMOZLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SE COLORADO SPRINGS   38.76N 104.73W
09/14/2011                   EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD AT SECURITY
            BOULEVARD AND MAIN STREET IN SECURITY.

&&

LWALROD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1025 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N COLORADO SPRINGS    38.90N 104.81W
09/14/2011  M2.72 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATED TOTAL

1023 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS   38.88N 104.74W
09/14/2011  M3.40 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATED TOTAL

&&

KMOZLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SECURITY                38.75N 104.74W
09/14/2011  M3.40 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

1030 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW FALCON             38.89N 104.67W
09/14/2011  M3.69 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MARKSHEFFEL AND CAREFREE

1038 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ENE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.86N 104.74W
09/14/2011  M3.05 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

1038 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E COLORADO SPRINGS    38.83N 104.71W
09/14/2011  M3.40 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

1044 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FALCON                  38.93N 104.62W
09/14/2011  M3.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            UPDATED TOTAL

&&

KMOZLEY