Dust Storm Warning 7, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST MON JUL 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF AIR AROUND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION IS
BRINGING SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY TO OUR AREA. THIS MEANS POSSIBLE
DESERT BLOWING DUST AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPORARY DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF SOME
HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WEST
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY AT MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDS WEST OF THERE
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SUNNY
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME TO A FEW DEGREE WARMER
TODAY COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. IT WAS MORE HUMID TODAY
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH...EXCEPT STRONG
GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CENTER OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED OVER THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTED IN ANOTHER HOT DAY IN OUR AREA TODAY WITH A
HIGH OF 112 DEGREES AT SKY HARBOR IN PHOENIX AS OF 301 PM MST. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF AIR AROUND
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY MAINLY
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THIS FLOW MEAN
POSSIBLE DESERT BLOWING DUST AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ONE SUCH HIGH LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND MOVING NORTH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER LESS DISCERNIBLE SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW.

MOST OF WHAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO THE LOWER DESERT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE...SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN RESULTS
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LOWER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY MOVE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THUS...
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
DAYTIME FRIDAY.

A RETURN OF SOME HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO HAPPEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WITH A
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO
OVER OUR AREA IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX AND KIWA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN
AREA WITH A SOME STORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST WILL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO
ENTER INTO THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS. RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED DUST...AND
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF LIGHTNING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...WATERS/MCLANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
555 AM MST MON JUL 18 2011

AZZ022-023-027-028-191230-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
555 AM MST MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS INCLUDE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND DENSE BLOWING DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ024-191230-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
555 AM MST MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ030>033-191230-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
555 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-021-025-026-191230-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
555 AM MST MON JUL 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 PM MST MON JUL 18 2011

AZZ024-028-182215-
PINAL AZ-
238 PM MST MON JUL 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 315 PM MST.

AT 234 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLORENCE JUNCTION AND QUEEN VALLEY. THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FLORENCE...QUEEN VALLEY...AND RURAL NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...

IN ADDITION TO VERY STRONG WINDS...DENSE BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. TAKE SHELTER INSIDE OF A
STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 3298 11131 3295 11136 3295 11140 3346 11140
      3335 11103 3318 11103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 180DEG 0KT 3316 11125

AJ

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