High Wind Watch 4, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
249 AM PST WED MAR  9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN OCCLUDED FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
KEEPING WET CONDITIONS TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
ON THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
FOR THE COAST...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL LIKELY HAVE A BREAK ON FRI...BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK FRIDAY.  SATELLITE SHOWS THE
LOW WITH TODAYS SYSTEM NEAR 135W OFF THE WA COAST HEADING TOWARD THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS...SO COAST AND COAST RANGE ZONE WILL GET A DECENT
DOSE OF RAIN. SHOULD BE A WINDY DAY AT THE COAST BUT HIGH WINDS NOT
LIKELY.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO RATHER STRONG FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THU. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND
SNOW...ALONG WITH A STRONGER BOUT OF WINDS FOR THE COAST...AND A NICE
SHOT OF WINDS FOR THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE TODAYS SYSTEM BUT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO US GIVEN ITS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ORIGIN AND
TRACK OF THE JETSTREAM. EVEN THROUGH GFS IS A BIT WEAKER THAN
EARLIER RUNS...THE CURRENT ECMWF AND NAM ARE STRONGER SO HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR THU.
STILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THU ESPECIALLY
IF THE NAM SOLUTION WORKS OUT...BUT THIS WOULD BE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SIGNIFICANT RAINS...1"-2" NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COAST/COAST
RANGE AND OTHER LOCALES...POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH 0.75"-1" OR
SO FOR THE VALLEY TROUGH THU. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
PASSES INITIALLY...BUT THEN COME DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON THU. LOOKING LIKE DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
CASCADES...WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS IN S WA. SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND...QUIETER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR
FRIDAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM S TO N. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS GENERALLY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED...WITH ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED FRONT COMING IN ON SATURDAY...WITH MODEL TIMING VARYING
FROM ANYWHERE FROM 12-18 HRS...THEN A POTENTIAL BREAK ON SUN...WITH
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS THE JET CONTINUES TO AIM SYSTEMS AT
THE NW AND THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE. KMD
&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ALONG THE COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
VFR AFTER 22Z AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS UP NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...SOLID GALES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR TONIGHT INTO THU. WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING TO COVER
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOVE 10 FT THIS
MORNING...REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4
     AM PST THURSDAY FOR COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

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