River Flood Warning 11, NWS Pocatello, ID

380 
WGUS85 KPIH 150843
FLSPIH
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
243 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
IDAHO...
 
  HENRYS FORK AT ST. ANTHONY AFFECTING FREMONT AND MADISON COUNTIES

. THE HENRYS FORK AT ST. ANTHONY NEVER REACHED FLOOD STAGE AND IS 
FORECAST TO KEEP DROPPING.  

&&

IDC043-065-150913-
/O.CAN.KPIH.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110615T1115Z/
/ANTI1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
243 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE HENRYS FORK AT ST. ANTHONY.
* AT  1:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 6.3 FEET BY .
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON PARKER-SALEM ROAD. 
  PASTURELAND BETWEEN THE RIVER AND US HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE MINOR 
  FLOODING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
323 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTH BY
THURSDAY BUT MODELS STILL MAINLY DRY. DID KEEP SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT KEPT THE
SNAKE PLAIN DRY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL IT DOWN AGAIN THURSDAY. HAVE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
SHOULD APPROACH THE 20 MPH RANGE OVER AMERICAN FALLS.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT VERY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS GENERAL UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER IDAHO. EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. TROF
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN THOUGH THE GFS MOVES TROF EAST
A BIT QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN BUT PATTERN OF COOLER AND WETTER
WEEKEND THEN DRYING EARLY NEXT WEEK CONSISTENT.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE ACTUALLY STABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH CAPTURED THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION TONIGHT
VERY WELL.  ONLY KIDA AND KPIH ARE IN THE THREAT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX AND CAPE ABOVE 300 J/KG ON THE NAM.  GFS IS STABLE WITH ANY
CAPE LIMITED TO ID-MT BORDER WELL NORTH OF KRXE AND AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF KU78.  THUS WILL KEEP VCTS LIMITED TO THE TWO EASTERN AIRDROMES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD MEANS THERMALLY DRIVEN WIND WITH GUSTS
GETTING MODERATE BY NOON...ESPECIALLY WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO.  WED
LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE 4 AIRPORT LOCATIONS.  MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING AND WARMING NOW ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS RATHER THAN WED-THU TIME FRAME.  PLENTY OF GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY EVEN EARLY IN THE FORECAST.  BY THU...TROUGHING RETURNS
TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AFTER THIS BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE FEATURE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE COMES WITH IT TO
PRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING
COOL DOWN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY HIGH.  GUIDANCE PRODUCT SUITES START TO
DIVERGE IN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.  ON
THE ECMWF...THU NIGHT/FRI AND FRI NIGHT/SAT ARE MAINLY DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SETS UP TO ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO ON SAT
NIGHT/SUN/SUN NIGHT. GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SAT AND ANOTHER
SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT THE TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH AND THUS NOT AS WET
FOR ESPECIALLY THE ID-UT BORDER REGION. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT
THE GFS MOS FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS ADJUSTED WITH STATISTICAL
CLIMATOLOGY...DOES NOT PUT A HIGH CHANCE ON THE SAT FEATURE.  EVEN
THE GFS HAS MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE SUN STORM.  MESSICK

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND
RIVER FORECAST ARE FOR STEADY STATE OR SLOWLY FALLING LEVELS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTNEUF RIVER
AT POCATELLO AND HENRYS FORK AT REXBURG. HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY AND
LAST NIGHT WILL CAUSE THE TETON RIVER NEAR ST ANTHONY TO APPROACH
FLOOD STAGE.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ021.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE PORTNEUF RIVER AT POCATELLO AND
THE HENRYS FORK NEAR REXBURG.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
455 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2011

IDZ021-151100-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
455 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
847 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W REXBURG             43.83N 111.80W
06/14/2011  M0.29 INCH       MADISON            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL ON 6/13

&&

VALLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
859 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E ASHTON              44.07N 111.42W
06/14/2011  M0.25 INCH       FREMONT            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VALLE