Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Pocatello, ID

006 
WWUS85 KPIH 041956
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTNING IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO ZONE
413 UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVNEING...

IDZ413-050300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111005T0300Z/
CARIBOU RANGE/CARIBOU NF-
156 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE ZONE 413...

* AFFECTED AREA: IN IDAHO...FIRE ZONE 413 CARIBOU RANGE/CARIBOU 
  NF.

* TIMING: THROUGH 900 PM MDT.

* THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* PRECIPITATION: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL .10 TO .20 
  INCH RAIN. 

* IMPACTS: NEW FIRE STARTS OR HOLD OVERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

866 
WWUS85 KPIH 050137
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
737 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
FIRE ZONE 413 IS CANCELLED...


IDZ413-050245-
/O.CAN.KPIH.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111005T0300Z/
CARIBOU RANGE/CARIBOU NF-
737 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE ZONE 413...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED THE
REST OF THIS EVENING.   



$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
942 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

.UPDATE...EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO RAPID MOVING NATURE OF
STORMS...EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR CELLS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHTNING TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON. DUE TO STRONG MIXING OF THE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE INCREASE OUR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 DEGREES.

PRESTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2011/

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AMPLIFIED LOW OFF PACIFIC
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS
HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS PER RADAR MOSAIC.
VIS/IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD STARTED OVER CENTRAL
MTNS. WILL KEEP SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN FCST
THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. MODELS EJECT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN BASE OF
TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. SFC LOW
EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW RECENT HIGHS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING PRECIP GOING MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN
TO DROP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT THE
INTRODUCTION OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FT.

BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER LOW HAS DROPPED TO OREGON
COAST WITH LARGE SURFACE LOW SPREAD ACROSS IDAHO. DEEP PACIFIC
MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING POPS
HIGHER. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW DROPS INTO NEVADA. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
UPPER LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF SPLITTING WITH GFS NOW FOLLOWING PREVIOUS
ECMWF SOLUTION OF PUSHING NORTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN LOW CUTTING OFF OVER 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE TRENDED
POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW BUT THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WARM COMPLICATE THE PATTERN. AT THIS
POINT DO NOT BELIEVE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP MUCH BELOW 6000
FEET THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEAR TO RANGE BETWEEN 6 INCHES AND A FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 7500
FEET OVER A THREE DAY PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN
CHANGE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HOLD OFF ON ADVISORIES.

UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH TRAILING UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION.
GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR TEMPERATURES. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ARRIVAL OF NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH...MAINLY HINGING ON PATH OF DEPARTING LOW. OPTED TO
LEAVE FCST TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO AND GUIDANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND. DMH

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AND TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 9500-10000FT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHER LEVELS
TO THE EAST. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER
CLOUDS TOMORROW. KSUN IS THE ONLY SITE THAT MAY APPROACH OR
ACTUALLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
MANY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH KSUN SHOULD SEE
THE USUAL NIGHTTIME WIND SHIFT WITH THE CAVEAT OF SPEEDS BEING
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE FIRST WAVE SPINNING AWAY FROM A LARGE OFFSHORE SYSTEM COMES OUR
WAY. GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH IF NO HIGHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN A BIT EXCEPT AT RIDGETOP
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND
9500-10000FT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO
7500-8500FT ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS BY
LATER THURSDAY FALL TO 6500-7500 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 8000-9000FT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. DUE TO WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES...ANY DECENT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ABOVE
7000 FEET WHERE FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 8 INCHES AND LOCALLY
HIGHER ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
521 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

IDZ017>025-031-032-041130-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
521 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE STARTING
TUESDAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ABOVE 8000 FT MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.