Winter Weather Advisory 23, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

222 
WWUS41 KPHI 071619
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1119 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

PAZ054-055-080030-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0011.111208T0100Z-111208T0900Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1119 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY WET SNOW 
  BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND END BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM. 

* IMPACTS...TREACHEROUS TRAVEL SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN 
  THE POCONOS AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE 28 TO 32 DEGREE 
  RANGE SHORTLY AFTER THE CHANGE TO SNOW. WET SNOW MAY CAUSE 
  SOME TREE LIMBS TO BREAK IF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED 4 INCHES. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-080030-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.111208T0300Z-111208T0900Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
1119 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY INCLUDING WANTAGE...
  VERNON AND NEWTON. 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE COUNTY 
  BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND THEN ENDS BY 4 AM. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME TREACHEROUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS 
  AROUND MIDNIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* VARIABILITY...AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND ARE ELEVATION 
  DEPENDENT. FINAL STORM TOTALS IN THE COUNTY MAY RANGE BETWEEN 
  1 AND 6 INCHES. THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE AMOUNT OF 
  PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ONCE IT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

HEAVENER

360 
WWUS41 KPHI 072012
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
312 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

PAZ054-055-080900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0011.111208T0100Z-111208T0900Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
312 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY WET SNOW 
  BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND END BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM. 

* IMPACTS...TREACHEROUS TRAVEL SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN 
  THE POCONOS AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE 28 TO 32 DEGREE 
  RANGE SHORTLY AFTER THE CHANGE TO SNOW. WET SNOW MAY CAUSE 
  SOME TREE LIMBS TO BREAK IF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED 4 INCHES. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-080900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.111208T0300Z-111208T0900Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
312 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY INCLUDING WANTAGE... 
  VERNON AND NEWTON. 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
  COUNTY BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND THEN END BY 4 AM.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME TREACHEROUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS 
  AROUND MIDNIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* VARIABILITY...AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND ARE ELEVATION 
  DEPENDENT. FINAL STORM TOTALS IN THE COUNTY MAY RANGE BETWEEN 
  1 AND 6 INCHES. THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE AMOUNT OF 
  PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ONCE IT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

008 
WWUS41 KPHI 080153
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

PAZ054-055-080900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111208T0900Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
853 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
  IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TIMING...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE 1000 PM...AND FALL
  HEAVILY AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 200 AM. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
  LATE TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...TREACHEROUS TRAVEL AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AS
  TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
  COULD RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
  HIGHER TERRAIN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-080900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.111208T0300Z-111208T0900Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
853 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY INCLUDING WANTAGE... 
  VERNON AND NEWTON. 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10
  PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN END BY ABOUT 4 AM.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TREACHEROUS FOR SEVERAL
  HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

121 
WWUS41 KPHI 080609
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

PAZ054-055-080900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111208T0900Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
109 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY
  OCCURRED AT TOBYHANNA. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE ENDING BETWEEN 130 AM AND 230 AM.

* IMPACTS...TREACHEROUS TRAVEL ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES WITH
  TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-080900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-111208T0900Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
109 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
  POSSIBLY 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE WESTERN PART OF BERKS COUNTY... WEST
  OF READING PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL BE ENDING RAPIDLY ELSEWHERE IN
  EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 130 AM AND 230 AM.
  PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY WILL END BETWEEN 2 AM
  AND 3 AM.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME IN
  THE ELEVATED REGIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 32
  DEGREES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$


DRAG

210 
WWUS41 KPHI 080753
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
253 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

PAZ054-055-080900-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-111208T0900Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
253 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE POCONOS. 

THE OVERNIGHT SNOW EVENT HAS ENDED ALTHOUGH ALL UNTREATED SURFACES
WILL BE SLIPPERY THROUGH MID MORNING BECAUSE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES UNTIL DAYBREAK.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-080900-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-111208T0900Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
253 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

THE SNOW THAT FELL LATE LAST NIGHT MAY STILL CAUSE STRETCHES OF
SLIPPERY TRAVEL THIS MORNING ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THIS WOULD
TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 8 AM.



$$

DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
BY OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY START TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS:

FLOOD WATCH:  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL EXPAND FFA IN BERKS COUNTY AT
4AM;

WSA; PROBABLY CONVERT THE WATCH TO EITHER A WARNING OR ADVY
DEPENDENT ON OUR OVERNIGHT COLLABORATION AND POSSIBLY EXPAND THE
ADVY DOWN INTO THE BERKS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AS WELL AS JUST N OF
TTN NORTHWARD.

HYDRO: AM INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NEED AREAL AND POINT
SPECIFIC FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THIS EVENT....PARTICULARLY I95
CORRIDOR FROM N DE NEWD TO NE NJ. WE MAY BE ISSUING SITE SPECIFIC
FOR N DE BY NOON DEPENDENT ON THE THE EXACT PATH OF THE ONCOMING
MORNING HEAVY RAIN.

WIDESPREAD TOTAL EVENT QPF WILL BE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES...ISO 3.5
INCHES POSSIBLE I95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WIND ADVY: ADDING A WIND ADVY TO DEL SE NJ 03Z-09Z THU TIME PER HIGH
WIND COMPOSITES...STRONG CAA /9 TO 11 MB 3 HRLY PRES RISES/ ASSTD
WITH BOMBING DEPARTING COASTAL NJ SFC LOW.

THUNDER: THINK WE HAVE A BETTOR CHC FOR SMW OR EVEN A VERY LOW PROB
OF ISO SVR DE COAST INTO FAR S NJ COAST IN THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME.

BEST SNOW GROWTH WHEN ITS SNOWING IS FOR KABE NEWD IN THE 04Z-08Z
TIME FRAME...SHORT BURST OF 1-2/HR...MUST THINK SW RATIOS NEAR 8
OR 9 TO 1 COMING OUT OF ALL THIS CURRENT WARMTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR A TIME. THIS FORCES THE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN ALSO OPENS THE
DOOR TO A GENERAL COLDER TEMPERATURE REGIME, WHICH WILL BE QUITE THE
CHANGE FROM THE STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. THE
QUICKNESS OF THE FLOW HOWEVER WILL ALLOW DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND CAA IN ITS WAKE. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
FORECAST TO BE QUICKLY EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST AS THURSDAY STARTS,
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH. THE STRONGEST CAA HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE DIRECTED
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION THURSDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AND THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS TO TAKE PLACE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS STRONGER REGARDING TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT BUT LACKING MOISTURE, MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STRONG CAA FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING SATURDAY AND
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SHOULD RESULT IN A BRISK DAY. THE
SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY TRY AND GET A SURFACE LOW TO FORM
SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST COAST, HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD TEND TO BE FORCED AWAY FROM THE AREA AS EVERYTHING LOOKS
RATHER TRANSIENT. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM ACROSS THE WEST, ENOUGH RIDGING
LOOKS TO HANG ON TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL TROUGHING TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS MAY DRIVE A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY WITH
AN ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING TO OUR NORTHWEST. OVERALL, A
DRY FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME WITH
PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT APPEARS THAT ANY LAKE RESPONSE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE STEERING FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
NORTHWESTERLY ENOUGH, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS MAY SPILL OUR WAY AT
TIMES.

FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MOSGUIDE WAS THEN BLENDED IN WITH CONTINUITY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO INTRODUCE SOME NEWER GUIDANCE
INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VARIABLE IFR TO MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG...SCT SHOWERS
WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOWEST CONDS IN E PA AND NNJ IN THE LIGHT
VARIABLE WIND.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IFR CONDS PREDOMINANT IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE
WITH SOME OF THE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AND AGAIN
AFTER 22Z.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT N MOST TAF SITES.

EXCEPTION: KMIV AND KACY WHERE CONDS MAY BECOME VFR CIGS AT KMIV
AND KACY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SSW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 20KTS
AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. SOME OF THE RAIN HEAVY. RAIN
CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND LIFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE AS
IN THE 06Z TAFS. THIS MAY REQUIRE PAVEMENT TREATMENTS OR SNOW
REMOVAL AT THESE TAF SITES. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AT THE RATE OF 1
INCH/HR FOR AN HR OR 2 BEFORE IT ENDS.

OTRW...CHC OF BRIEF SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE RAIN VCNTY KTTN-
KPHL/KILG AROUND 06Z.

RAPID CLEARING AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z ALL
SITES.

WINDS: BECOME GUSTY NW BETWEEN 03Z-07Z WITH ISOLATED GUSTS 28 TO
38 KTS FROM KPHL AND KILG SEWD THRU KACY AND KMIV.

PHL SPECIFIC: FOR NOW ...PLEASE SEE 06Z TAF AND OR AMDS. NE WIND AND
LOW CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIG PROBLM FOR KPHL BETWEEN 12Z AND
20Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION EARLY ON WITH A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS WAKE.
HOWEVER, ANY LINGER CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD THIN OUT WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY TURNING GUSTY.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH LESS WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WATCH WILL CONVERT TO A WIDESPREAD GALE WARNING EVENT
FOR THE PERIOD 11 PM WED TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OUR WATERS.

MAY SEE ISO GALE VCNTY 44009 IN THE SLY FLOW THIS AFTN PER LOW
PRES DEVELOPING W OF 44009.

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN
ITS WAKE ALONG WITH CAA WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GALES SHOULD BE LOWERING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN OCCURRING. WE WILL CARRY A GALE
WARNING FOR A TIME THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO AN
ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH LESS WIND, AND THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO DO SO DRY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CAA OCCURS
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY, AND THIS MAY ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COASTS. AS OF NOW, THE TROUGH LOOKS
TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO TAKE ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OUT TO SEA. THE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SEAS WITH THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE, HOWEVER THESE WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO: AM INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NEED AREAL AND POINT
SPECIFIC FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THIS EVENT....PARTICULARLY I95
CORRIDOR FROM N DE NEWD TO NE NJ. WE MAY BE ISSUING SITE SPECIFIC
FOR N DE BY NOON DEPENDENT ON THE THE EXACT PATH OF THE ONCOMING
MORNING HEAVY RAIN.

WIDESPREAD TOTAL EVENT QPF WILL BE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES...ISO 3.5
INCHES POSSIBLE I95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RERABE POSTED FOR YEARLY RFALL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR PAZ060>062-067>071.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR DEZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

PAZ054-055-080900-
CARBON-MONROE-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-080900-
SUSSEX-WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ008>010-012-015-PAZ067>069-080900-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT
BEFORE ENDING. THERE COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A
QUICK COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF GETTING SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-080900-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ014-080900-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ020>027-080900-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002>004-080900-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ012-015-019-020-080900-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450>455-080900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-080900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
351 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.