Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2011
Winter Weather Advisory 17, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Mar 22, 2011, 3:35 PM EDT for 6 counties in New Jersey; Berks County, Lehigh County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Mar 23, 2011, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 22, 2011, 3:35 PM EDT (19:35 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 23, 2011, 2:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 23, 2011, 11:01 AM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Counties Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Northampton County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1007 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 63 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 91 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
526 WWUS41 KPHI 221935 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.110323T0600Z-110324T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0008.110323T0600Z-110324T1000Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW WITH SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY PERIODICALLY MIX WITH SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE, WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AS WELL AS UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-231000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.110323T0600Z-110324T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.110323T0600Z-110324T1000Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN... BETHLEHEM...EASTON 335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY, AND LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE, BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW, OR A SNOW AND SLEET MIXTURE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER. THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE EVENING COMMUTE, WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AS WELL AS UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ PAZ060-231000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.110323T0600Z-110324T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.110323T0600Z-110323T1500Z/ BERKS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...READING 335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...BERKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN, OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE, BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AS WELL AS UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ NJZ009-010-PAZ069-231000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.110323T0600Z-110323T1500Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 335 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN, OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE, BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ ROBERTSON/TFG
4 follow-up statements
364 WWUS41 KPHI 230744 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 344 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231600- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 344 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW WITH SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW....LOCALLY 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY SNOW AND SOME SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE...WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-231600- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN... BETHLEHEM...EASTON 344 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY... AND LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND SOME RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER. THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BUT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE EVENING COMMUTE...WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ NJZ009-010-PAZ060-069-231500- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T1500Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING... DOYLESTOWN 344 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AT MANY PLACES. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES... AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
771 WWUS41 KPHI 230902 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 NJZ007-008-PAZ062-231700- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET...PERHAPS SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY SNOW AND SOME SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231700- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW WITH SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY SNOW AND SOME SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE...WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ PAZ061-231700- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ LEHIGH- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALLENTOWN 502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY... AND LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND SOME RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER. THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BUT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE EVENING COMMUTE...WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO ONE MILE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ NJZ009-010-PAZ060-069-231500- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T1500Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING... DOYLESTOWN 502 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AT MANY PLACES. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES... AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
159 WWUS41 KPHI 231157 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 757 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-062-232000- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 757 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET...PERHAPS SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY SNOW AND SOME SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ NJZ012-015-231500- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T1500Z/ MIDDLESEX-MERCER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON 757 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...MIDDLESEX AND MERCER COUNTIES OF NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AT MANY PLACES. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ PAZ061-232000- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ LEHIGH- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALLENTOWN 757 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY... AND LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE DEGRADED BY A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND SOME RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER. THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BUT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE EVENING COMMUTE...WITH TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO ONE MILE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ NJZ009-010-PAZ060-069-231500- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T1500Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING... DOYLESTOWN 757 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AT MANY PLACES. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. * IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE AFFECTED BY A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES... AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
380 WWUS41 KPHI 231501 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1101 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-069-231615- /O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T1500Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...DOYLESTOWN 1101 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE AREA SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RAIN. MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROADS MAY STILL BE SLICK INTO THE AFTERNOON. $$ PAZ061-231615- /O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ LEHIGH- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALLENTOWN 1101 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE AREA SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RAIN. MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. $$ NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-062-232315- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110324T1000Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 1101 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET...PERHAPS SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SLICK WITH ACCUMULATED SNOW AND SLEET. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN MAY MIX AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AS WELL AS ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Mar 22, 10:59 AM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 22, 10:59 AM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1059 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE
WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY...AND
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NAM INITIALIZATION VS THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WAS TOO WARM IN GREEN
BAY, DETROIT AND PITTSBURGH. WITH ALL OF THEM, THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WAS HIGHER THAN PROGGED. BUFFALO, ALBANY AND BROOKHAVEN
TEMPS ARE WITHIN 1C. THE 700MB TEMP INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY
GOOD AS DID THE OVERALL 500 MB INITIALIZATION. THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF 925MB IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THAN THE NAM INITIALIZED,
SLIGHTLY NOT COLD ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH, NOT WARM ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH.
JUST WANTED TO ADD A QUICK AND DIRTY VERIFICATION OF WHICH MODEL
IS HANDLING OUR UPCOMING SYSTEM THE BEST THROUGH ITS 12HR
FORECAST AT 12Z. OVERALL ITS THE ECMWF. THE NAM'S SFC LOW FCST POSN
IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND ITS TOO COLD, IT HAS INFERRED FREEZING RAIN
AS A PTYPE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
CONVERSELY THE GFS HAD A DECENT PTYPE AND SFC LOW VERIFICATION,
BUT ITS QPF AXIS VERIFIED TOO FAR TO THE SW IN THE OH VALLEY. BOTH
CANADIAN MODELS PUT THE SFC LOW TOO DEEP INTO THE COLD AIR. WE'LL
SEE HOW THE MODELS INITIALIZE OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION...AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO IT. THE STRATOCU MOISTURE IS
HANGING IN TOUGHER AND CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...AS
CONVECTION UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 50S WITH MAINLY FULL
SUN THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
NUMBERS WERE CHOSEN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL BE POSTED THIS MORNING FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. MORE ON THE
REASONING FOR THIS IS CONTAINED BELOW.
FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT...THE NAM/ECMWF MODEL SUITE
WAS CHOSEN FOR THE TEMPLATE. THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO WARM/TOO FAST FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW. CHOOSING A NON-GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A COLDER
SOLUTION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
REMAINS IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE STATIONARY FRONT SQUIRTS OUT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COLDER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY
DECENT SLICE OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I 95) A
SHOT AT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW/SLEET/ICE.
THE INITIAL SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RISE ALONG THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS DRY THIS EVENING
(WITH DRY EQUALING COLD THIS TIME OF YEAR)...SO THE INITIAL SHOT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GO INTO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE COLUMN COOLS BELOW THE FREEZING MARK JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...SO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM WILL BE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATED.
GIVEN THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS...
THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT MOST AREAS START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE EXCEPTION HERE MAY BE NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR SNOW...EVEN LATE TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THE FIRST FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND COULD EXTEND INTO THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY LATE TONIGHT.
THAT FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...REACHING NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BANDING
SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AREAS...SO
SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ISSUED DURING THIS TIME. IT NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST HOW FAR SOUTHEAST
THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT IT COULD INCLUDE UPPER
BUCKS AND UPPER MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...IN ADDITION TO THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. DURING THIS TIME...THE SNOWFALL
RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA AS WELL.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. RIGHT
BEHIND THE BAND...MID LEVEL WARMING COULD ROB THE COLUMN OF ITS
ABILITY TO CREATE SNOWFLAKES...OR AT LEAST RESULT IN SLEET. THIS
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE LOWER LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE (IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
IN ADDITION...ELEVATION MAY END UP PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE UPSLOPE INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS COULD
AIR LIFT. A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WOULD PUT THE FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 600
FEET...SO THE ELEVATION COULD BRING A COUPLE OF MORE INCHES TO THESE
AREAS.
AS THE BAND EXITS WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SECOND
SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND...AND MAY CONTAIN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TO THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH. AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING ALL OF THIS ALONG...THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THIS IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
GET INVOLVED AND ALLOW THE COLUMN TO COOL AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
RATES...WILL NOT GO THIS ROUTE YET. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THIS
POTENTIAL AND ACT ACCORDINGLY. IN ANY EVENT...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A WARNING SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY...THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN CUMULUS BUILDUPS FOR MOST
AREAS. THE MENTION OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AS THE AIRMASS IS COLD
AND POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE (SHOWERS...NOT THUNDERSTORMS).
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS...AS
THE NAM MOS NUMBERS SIMPLY LOOK TOO COLD FOR LATE MARCH WITH AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AT THE START OF THE PD, SO
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY LOOK DRY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD. AS IT DOES,
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALG THE ASSOCD WMFNT, MAINLY ACRS SRN AREAS
LATER SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH THE OH
VLY SUN MORNING, AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WINTRY PRECIP
EVEN AS FAR S AS THE 1-95 CORRIDOR, BUT ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO RAIN WITH WARMING TEMPS AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LOW PULLS
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYS WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOB NRML THRU
THE EXTENDED PD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS. THERE HAS BEEN POCKETS OF STRATUS
AROUND AS WELL BUT THAT IS THINNING OUT. ALSO, THE FOG THAT HAS
IMPACTED SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ARRIVING IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, THEREFORE SOME AMENDMENTS WERE ISSUED TO SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY JUST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT AND SHRINK
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A TIME TODAY ALONG WITH ENOUGH
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING. THEREFORE WIND GUSTS TO
ABOUT 20 KNOTS WERE MAINTAINED. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MIXING WANES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TO ABOUT THE MID
LEVEL VARIETY TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SNOW/RAIN WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY ON AND AT THIS TIME LIGHT RAIN
WAS INDICATED IN THE 30-HOUR KPHL TAF. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE DELMARVA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A MESSY ONE WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FOR
AWHILE AT KABE TO NEAR KTTN AND EVEN BACK TO KRDG. THERE IS EVEN THE
POTENTIAL THAT SOME SNOW AND SLEET OCCURS DOWN TO THE KPHL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, LOOKS TO BE AT KRDG AND
ESPECIALLY AT KABE. ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION, THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWERING WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST EARLY THURSDAY, HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE LURKING TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT WAS CANCELLED EARLY.
THE WINDS OVERALL HAVE BEEN LESS THAN CRITERIA...AND SEAS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE OVERALL
WINDS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUB-ADVISORY, THEN AS THE STORMS DEPARTS
THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASES
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE THEREFORE MAY HAVE
ADVISORY GUSTS OCCURRING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
EDGES CLOSER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE LURKING JUST
TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND THIS MAY SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR ANOTHER
STORM TO TRACK ALONG.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/O'HARAHazardous weather outlook, Mar 22, 10:36 AM EDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-231445- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- 1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ067>069-231445- HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE AFFECTED...WITH SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NJZ013-017>020-027-PAZ070-071-231445- WESTERN MONMOUTH-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY HAVE SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SPOTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ014-016-021>026-231445- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN- 1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-450>455-231445- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 1036 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 3:48 AM EDT | Winter Storm Watch | PHI | Morris, Sussex, Warren | 12 hr |
| Mar 22, 3:35 PM EDT | Winter Storm Warning | PHI | Morris, Sussex, Warren | 36 hr |
Nearby
Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2011Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2011Every winter weather advisory in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.