Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2011
Winter Weather Advisory 16, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Mar 20, 2011, 4:03 AM EDT for Morris County, Sussex County, Warren County, New Jersey; Carbon County, Monroe County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Mar 21, 2011, 4:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 20, 2011, 4:03 AM EDT (08:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 21, 2011, 4:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 21, 2011, 9:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Counties Morris County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Carbon County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2062 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 90 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -70 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
778 WWUS41 KPHI 200803 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-202115- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...LOOK FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE WORST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ HAYES
6 follow-up statements
184 WWUS41 KPHI 201932 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 332 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-210900- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 332 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. SOME SLEET IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE TRANSITION TIME. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...LOOK FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE WORST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
689 WWUS41 KPHI 210338 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-211145- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. SOME SLEET IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE TRANSITION TIME. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...LOOK FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE WORST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
903 WWUS41 KPHI 210736 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 336 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-211300- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.110321T0800Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 336 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... AND FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL THEN MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ HAYES
088 WWUS41 KPHI 210836 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 436 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 NJZ007-008-PAZ062-211300- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 436 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BETWEEN 700 AND AND 900 AM. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ NJZ001-PAZ054-055-211300- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 436 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. * TIMING...SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL THEN MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS SHOULD DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ HAYES
011 WWUS41 KPHI 211230 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 830 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-211330- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 830 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...ONGOING, BUT BECOMING MORE SCATTERED. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE SLIPPERY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ NJZ007-008-PAZ062-211330- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 830 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...ONGOING, BUT BECOMING MORE SCATTERED. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE SLIPPERY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLAN TO LEAVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME YOUR DESTINATION THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
256 WWUS41 KPHI 211259 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 859 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-211400- /O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 859 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW NOW TO OUR EAST, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHILE ON THE ROAD. UNTREATED ROADWAYS COULD STILL BE SLIPPERY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL HOOVER BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE COLDEST LOCALES. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR, BUT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. $$ NJZ007-008-PAZ062-211400- /O.EXP.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110321T1300Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 859 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW NOW TO OUR EAST, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING WHILE ON THE ROAD. UNTREATED ROADWAYS COULD STILL BE SLIPPERY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL HOOVER BETWEEN 32 AND 34 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE COLDEST LOCALES. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR, BUT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Mar 20, 3:27 AM EDT, 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 20, 3:27 AM EDT, 36 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST BY EVENING. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE
WATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
CIRRUS IS ALREADY SPILLING EAST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
THE MIDWEST. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CIRRUS...WHICH SHOULD BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE EXITING MID LEVEL
TROUGH...MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS. SINCE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS IS HIGH AND THIN...MOSTLY
SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX TONIGHT...AS THE COLD AND DRY AIR
BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE SURFACE HIGH MAY PROVE TO BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GO
INTO MOISTEN THE COLUMN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SINCE THE COLUMN
WILL BE VERY DRY TO START. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...EVEN ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
OVERALL...THE GFS STILL SEEMS TO BE TOO FAST AND TOO WARM LATER
TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS (NOT INCLUDING THE GFS) SUGGESTS A SLOWER
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION (AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FIRST). AS THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KEEP THE COLUMN
COLD ACROSS THE UPPER LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. BASED ON THIS...THESE AREAS SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE DRY COLUMN MAY NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR THE REST OF THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AS
THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RISES ABOVE ZERO.
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PEAKS BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND
1500 UTC MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT NECESSARY INDICATE A MAXIMIZED
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY OVERCOME
THIS AND ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW. BASED ON THE ABOVE...1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXITS...THE LOSS OF THE ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
RAIN. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY...THE COLD AIR MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE....SO SOME OF
THIS MAY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF WINTRY WEATHER
TYPES...AS WELL AS THE TIMING (AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...
SUGGEST THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
SNOW COULD ALSO ACCUMULATE IN THE UPPER LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN AND
MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY...BUT IN THESE AREAS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
AFTER THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR NOW...THESE LOCATIONS
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY...BUT IF TRENDS ARE
COLDER...THEY COULD BE ADDED LATER.
THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS SLEET AS FAR SOUTH AS NEAR
PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR EAST AS NEAR THE PARKWAY IN NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER...AFTER THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS EXHAUSTED...AND THE WET
BULB COMES TO EQUILIBRIUM ABOVE FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL AS RAIN. OVERALL...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON A MOS
BLEND...WITH LOWS PROBABLY OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.
THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
BE BANDING OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PLACES IN MONROE AND NORTHERN
SUSSEX COUNTY PUSHING THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD END IN THE MORNING (WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES POSSIBLY TOO FAR SOUTH FOR STEADIER RAIN) AS A
WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH.
RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THROUGH ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION COULD FALL IN THE HEADWATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THIS FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...THE RUNOFF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE HEADWATER GUIDANCE...SO NO
HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
THE MOVEMENT (OR NON MOVEMENT) OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BE KEY TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY. ACROSS NORTHERNMOST AREAS...THE WARM FRONT MAY
PASS TOO LATE FOR MUCH OF THE WARMER AIR TO GET IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION...AS
THE STEADIER RAIN ENDS. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NOT IN THE MUCH OF
CLEARING...THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS. AT THIS DISTANCE...
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...AS THE AMOUNT OF HEATING BEHIND THE
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPERATURE BUST MONDAY IS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AFTER THIS...THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES BECOME THE FORECAST PROBLEM.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
HAVE A SOURCE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE IT DOES HAVE A DISTANCE
TO TRAVEL...THIS SOURCE COULD ALLOW DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH
(WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF
MARCH)...SO MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEP CONSIDERABLY (TO NEAR 8 C/KM) TOWARD 0000 UTC
TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE FRONT FOR A FOCUS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LIMP SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE MID
LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GET INTO NORTHERN AREAS MORE EASILY THAN
SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE CLOUDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK. AS
SUCH...LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON THE MOS BLEND.
FOR TUESDAY...THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT GETS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD BE SITTING NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER. AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK...WEAK OVERRUNNING MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL COME TO A SCREECHING HALT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A
CONGLOMERATION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES IN OUR FORECAST AREA, THE BETTER THE CHANCE
FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD IN TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
THE TIME PERIOD WHEN PRECIPITATION, IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER, WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE
TALKING ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS, IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT NORTHERN
SECTIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE SNOW. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL
OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID AND UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN, THEY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
20S THURSDAY NIGHT AD FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY AT 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND INCREASE. THE CLOUD
BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NEARING KABE AND KRDG AROUND 06Z MONDAY. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AFTER 06Z, WE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE
30-HOUR KPHL TAF. ELSEWHERE, WE WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN PROBABLY BECOMING MORE
SHOWERY TOWARD MIDDAY. HOWEVER, SOME SNOW AND SLEET FROM KABE AREA
NORTHWARD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AROUND 2,000 FEET FOR
A TIME MONDAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY
FROM THE KPHL METRO SOUTH AND EAST.
TUESDAY: VFR WITH A NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-20 KNOTS. CLOUDS
INCREASE AND LOWER AT NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
LATE.
WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE, THAT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OCCURS FOR A
TIME FROM KRDG/KABE TO KTTN AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
DOWN TO NEAR THE KPHL AREA.
THURSDAY: GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR ALTHOUGH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY WIND TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER
AIR OVER THE WATER HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH MIXING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY TEND TO ACCELERATE
SOME UP DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION AS WAA
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILE IS NOT
IDEAL FOR VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO THE STABILITY OVER THE WATER.
DESPITE THIS, THE WINDS JUST UNDER THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY ALLOW GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS TO OCCUR
FOR A TIME MONDAY. THE STRONGER FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BUILD THE
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET DURING MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MOVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA
AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY, A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND MAY OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY WIND TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLDER
AIR OVER THE WATER HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH MIXING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY TEND TO ACCELERATE
SOME UP DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION AS WAA
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILE IS NOT
IDEAL FOR VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO THE STABILITY OVER THE WATER.
DESPITE THIS, THE WINDS JUST UNDER THE INVERSION ARE FORECAST TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY ALLOW GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS TO OCCUR
FOR A TIME MONDAY. THE STRONGER FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BUILD THE
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET DURING MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MOVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA
AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY, A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSEHazardous weather outlook, Mar 20, 3:47 AM EDT, 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-210800- SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A MORE PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-210800- WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...LOCALLY SLICK TRAVELING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...AS WELL AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-067>069-210800- HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071- 210800- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC- CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-450>455-210800- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 3:30 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | PHI | 43 hr |
Nearby
Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2011Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2011Every winter weather advisory in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.