Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Weather Advisories in 2011

Winter Weather Advisory 14, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

March 6, 2011Sussex County, Warren County, New Jersey; 5 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Mar 6, 2011, 3:37 AM EST for Sussex County, Warren County, New Jersey; 5 counties in Pennsylvania. It took effect at Mar 6, 2011, 8:00 PM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 6, 2011, 3:37 AM EST (08:37 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 6, 2011, 8:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 7, 2011, 7:40 AM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-03-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 7 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2011-03-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 253 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
617 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
253 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
299 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

117 
WWUS41 KPHI 060837
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

 
PAZ054-055-062115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0400Z-110307T1100Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
337 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. IN THE VALLEYS WHERE THIS
  TRANSITION MAY BE BRIEF, A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
  FREEZING OF STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
  WITH UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL START IN THE
  EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE
  WARY FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM THE LOWER 30S INTO THE MID TO UPPER
  20S OVERNIGHT. 

* VISIBILITIES...MAY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

PLEASE LOOK FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE STARTING TIME
OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN AVERAGE. 

&&

$$

TFG
6 follow-up statements
180 
WWUS41 KPHI 062003
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
303 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NJZ001-071000-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0500Z-110307T1100Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
303 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN
  INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
  OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
  OVERNIGHT. 

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-071000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0400Z-110307T1100Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
303 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. IN THE VALLEYS WHERE THIS
  TRANSITION MAY BE BRIEF...A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL
  CAUSE FREEZING OF STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
  WITH UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. 

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING AND
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
007 
WWUS41 KPHI 062123
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

PAZ054-055-071000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0200Z-110307T1100Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
423 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN 
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. IN THE VALLEYS WHERE THIS 
  TRANSITION MAY BE BRIEF...A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL 
  CAUSE FREEZING OF STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND WALKWAYS. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN WITH UP TO AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY 
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ001-071000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0300Z-110307T1100Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
423 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN 
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH UP TO TWO
  TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY 
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 
  OVERNIGHT. 

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
830 
WWUS41 KPHI 070054
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
754 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

PAZ054-055-071100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0100Z-110307T1100Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
754 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. IN THE
  VALLEYS WHERE THIS TRANSITION MAY BE BRIEF...A RAPID DROP IN
  TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE FREEZING OF STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND
  WALKWAYS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN...AS WELL AS UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN ICE OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY 
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ001-071100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0300Z-110307T1100Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
754 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN 
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN...AS WELL AS UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN ICE OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY 
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

HAYES
619 
WWUS41 KPHI 070248
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-071100-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110307T1100Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
948 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS
  ALSO POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
  OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE TONIGHT OR
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS...SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS WILL BECOME SLICK.
  AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...ANY STANDING
  WATER WILL FREEZE. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING AND
  WALKING CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NJZ001-071100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.110307T0248Z-110307T1100Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
948 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN 
  SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO
  TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE TONIGHT OR
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY 
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-071100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110307T1100Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
948 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO 
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING. IN THE 
  VALLEYS WHERE THIS TRANSITION MAY BE BRIEF...A RAPID DROP IN 
  TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE FREEZING OF STANDING WATER ON ROADS 
  AND WALKWAYS. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
  HIGHER TERRAIN. AS MUCH AS TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS ALSO
  POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...THE CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY. PLEASE BE WARY 
  FOR CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

HAYES
857 
WWUS41 KPHI 070854
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST MON MAR 7 2011

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-071000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110307T1100Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
354 AM EST MON MAR 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE SOME SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING WHERE WATER IS PONDING OR
RUNOFF IS CROSSING ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK EARLY THIS MORNING.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-071300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110307T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
354 AM EST MON MAR 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
  MOST OF THE POCONOS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. PLACES THAT ARE NOT SNOW COVERED COULD HAVE
  BLACK ICE FORM WHERE WATER HAS BEEN STANDING OR RUNNING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.  

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
  SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP UNTREATED ROADWAYS HAZARDOUS.
  AN ADDED COMPLICATION WILL BE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON
  SUNDAY FREEZING ON SURFACES AND FORMING BLACK ICE.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. PLEASE BE WARY FOR
  CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS AND GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME TO REACH
  YOUR DESTINATION.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE IN SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
091 
WWUS41 KPHI 071240
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EST MON MAR 7 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-071345-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110307T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
740 AM EST MON MAR 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER THIS MORNING, ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Mar 6, 1:10 AM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 6, 1:10 AM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
110 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
OUR REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
CANADA THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE OVERALL
PICTURE REMAINS INTACT. ONLY ADJUSTMENT AS PER LAST PARAGRAPH IN
THIS SECTION WAS TO NUDGE MIN TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE FIRST SURFACE WAVE RUNNING UP THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES IS EXITING INTO
CANADA. THE BATCH OF RAIN WITH THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF
THE RAIN IS BRUSHING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
THIS EVENING.

THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THRUST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATES AND EASTERN ONTARIO. BECAUSE OF THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BEST THERMAL FORCING...IT WOULD APPEAR HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE SECOND BATCH OF MOISTURE IS RUNNING UP THE FRONT AND THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MIDWEST. THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS
SLUG OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. BASED ON MODEL DEPICTION AND EXTRAPOLATION...THIS
BATCH OF RAIN MAY GET INTO THE WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT AROUND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST
COAST AND THE FRONT TO THE WEST IF STILL FAIRLY TIGHT. THIS IS
ACCOUNTING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE LOWERING
INVERSION IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LOWER
THE INVERSION HEIGHT AND CUT OFF THE GUSTINESS LATER THIS EVENING.

DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...AND RISING DEW POINTS...TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT DROP MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT....AND THAT MIGHT
BE WHEN THE RAIN STARTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER.

TO START SUNDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL FEATURE THE COLD FRONT
OFF TO OUR WEST, OVER WEST-CENTRAL PA AND EXTENDING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. IN ADDITION,
AN UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE REACHING THE AREA, BRINGING ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT. WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. OF NOTE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INCREASE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH VALUES
REACHING AROUND ONE INCH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ADDS UP
TO PERIODS OF RAIN, WITH SOME HEAVIER BURSTS POSSIBLE. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CONVECTION
COULD ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
LIMITED INSTABILITY. PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NJ COULD PERHAPS SEE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE
PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN. THE GFS DEPICTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC.

IN GENERAL, QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS IN THE POCONOS
AND NORTHWEST NJ COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN 2 INCHES QPF. AREAS
THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NJ CAN EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM
A HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES QPF. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON QPF AMOUNTS
AND ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING, PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
AND OUR FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT.

FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY
END WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING COLDER AT THE END OF THIS EVENT, AND SOME AREAS OF
SNOW OR SLEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NJ, AND PERHAPS
EVEN THE LEHIGH VALLEY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH OR LOCALLY TWO INCHES IN THE POCONOS, AND MAINLY
TRACE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT PULLS TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING.

LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE QUIET
WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA GRADUALLY SPREADS ITS
INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
PASS TO THE EAST THURSDAY...CARRYING THE RIDGE WITH IT. THE FCST
WILL BE DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THU TO A POSITION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRI.
THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS TO THE AREA. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE RATHER SLOW...SO ANOTHER HEAVY QPF EVENT MAY BE IN THE OFFING.
THE POPS IN THE GRIDS REFLECT HPC THINKING WITH MOSTLY HIGH CHC OR
LOW LIKELY POPS ATTM. THE POPS DECREASE FRI AS ANY LINGERING PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY FRI MORNING. COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT FRI WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL END WITH FAIR WEATHER AS ANOTHER HUGH HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRY FCST FOR SAT WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER INTO
SUN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST TAF SITES WERE STILL VFR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
VISIBILITIES AND ESPECIALLY CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MARGINAL
VFR AND THEN TO IFR THIS MORNING...PROBABLY BY OR AROUND SUNRISE...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN DEVELOPING RAIN AND SOME FOG IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS SURROUNDING 12Z. THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
UP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.

AS MOST TAF SITES WERE NOT EXHIBITING GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED UNTIL SOME
MIXING AND RESULTANT GUSTINESS RESUME LATER THIS MORNING. 2000 FOOT
WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS
FORECASTS...PROBABLY BETWEEN THE QUICKER GFS AND SLOWER NAM TIMING.
AS SUCH...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WAS SLOWED AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN CEASING WERE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENING ON A GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

OUTLOOK...
ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH EVAPORATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. HOWEVER...
NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO A LONGER
PORTION OF TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TAF SITES...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE RAIN WILL END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR SLEET
OVER KABE AND KRDG BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
MONDAY AND REMAIN SO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
NORTHWARD WEST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING A WARM
FRONT WITH SOME LOWER CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA EXIST ON THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
SFC AT THE ELEVATED PLATFORMS. THESE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ENHANCE THE SEAS...SO THE SCA FLAG WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AND IN DEL BAY...FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS. THE
SCA FLAGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND
THEN IT WILL BREAK DOWN IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, BUT THE MAIN THRUST OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL SEEMS TO BE THAT A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED. SEAS WILL PEAK JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
AROUND 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL
TAKE SOME TIME COMING DOWN AFTER THEY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST, AND WE'VE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY OVER ALL WATERS UNTIL NOON MONDAY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY... RESULTING IN DECREASED WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS. ANOTHER FRONT MAY HEAD IN FOR LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN CAUSE TIDAL FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR
(IN ORDER OF LIKELIHOOD) CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
AND DELAWARE BAY.

THE CHESAPEAKE OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SYSTEM (CBOFS) IS
FORECASTING THAT TOLCHESTER BEACH WILL HIT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH
THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

MELTING OF SNOW OVER THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN IS ONGOING.
ADDING SOME RAIN TO THE MELT AND CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
LEADS TO POSSIBLE PROBLEMS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE ACROSS
THE TIDAL DELAWARE.

OVER DELAWARE BAY, WE'RE ONLY GETTING WEAK INDICATIONS OF TIDAL
FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH WE DON'T CONSIDER MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY AT ANY OF THE
ABOVE LOCATIONS, IT IS SUFFICIENTLY POSSIBLE TO MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY.

THE CHANGE OF NOTE BECAUSE OF HIGHER QPF IN THE HEADWATER REGIONS
OF THE DELAWARE AND LEHIGH RIVERS, WE HAVE HAD TWO RIVER MODEL
RUNS THAT BRING SOME MINOR FLOODING TO THE DELAWARE RIVER AND
BRING THE LEHIGH RIVER CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE FLOODING ON THE DELAWARE WOULD NOT START UNTIL MONDAY
AND IF FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR ALONG THE LEHIGH, IT WOULD START
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OVERALL PICTURE WITHIN OUR CWA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS AND HPC QPF VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT AN INCH
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO AS MUCH AS 2.50 INCHES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS BEFORE 1200 UTC SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE IS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE EASTERNMOST EDGE BRUSHING THE
WESTERN AREAS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...WITH NO FLOODING PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EAST
INTO THE REST OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.
FINALLY...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHERNMOST
NEW JERSEY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES
EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING WILL MOVE EAST LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FEW SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE...BASED ON THE QPF FORECAST AS OF NOW.
IF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES FALL...WHICH STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FOR OUR WATCH AREA...SMALL  CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL GO
BANK-FULL...AND EVEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IF A WIDESPREAD 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES FALL ACROSS SOME BASINS (LIKE THE
PASSAIC AND RARITAN AND SOME RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING). THE MOST
RECENT RFC FORECAST SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY FOR POINTS IN THE PASSAIC
AND RARITAN BASINS...AS WELL AS THE NESHAMINY AT LANGHORNE.

FINALLY...IF WIDESPREAD QPF VALUES REACH GREATER THAN 2.50 INCHES...
SIGNIFICANT RISES (POSSIBLY TO NEAR BANK-FULL) ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
LOWER SCHUYLKILL NEAR PHILADELPHIA DELAWARE. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE QPF FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND 1500 UTC SREF
SOLUTIONS SHOWS 4 OR 5 OF 21 MEMBERS WITH QPF VALUES THIS HIGH IN
THE HEADWATERS. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RFC FORECAST SHOW A FEW
POINTS ON THE GETTING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

PLEASE FOLLOW HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION THROUGH AHPS AND LATER
STATEMENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR PAZ060>062-067>071.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...
MARINE...DELISI/O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
HYDROLOGY...GIGI/HAYES
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 5, 8:50 PM EST, 6 hours 47 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ060>062-067>069-070200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ054-055-070200-
CARBON-MONROE-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-070200-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ070-071-070200-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-070200-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-070200-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-070200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-070200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-070200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
850 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 6, 3:30 AM ESTCoastal Flood StatementPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem17 hr
Mar 6, 4:41 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHISussex, Warren4 hr
Mar 6, 5:01 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset12 hr
Mar 6, 5:33 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Salem4 hr
Mar 6, 5:54 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementPHIBurlington, Camden66 min
Mar 6, 6:00 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHISussex, Warren6 hr
Mar 6, 6:17 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHIMorris32 hr
Mar 6, 6:30 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIAtlantic, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Middlesex, Monmouth and 2 more4 hr
Mar 6, 2:19 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton6 hr
Mar 6, 3:14 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementPHIChester, Delaware, Montgomery61 min
Mar 6, 3:32 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHIBerks, Monroe41 days
Mar 6, 4:55 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHICarbon, Lehigh, Northampton12 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2011Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2011Every winter weather advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.