Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
750 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM. A DRYING TREND IS LIKELY BY MONDAY
BEFORE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OFF WARM BEFORE COOLING OFF A BIT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO NERN PA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN MD. HAVE
DECREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM FROM PHL S AND E AND WILL SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP LATER ON, BUT STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY LIKE TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONTINUED INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT A FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE USED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND. THINK THE 00Z ECMWF RUN WAS TO SLOW MOVING THE LOW OUT ON
SUNDAY AND LIKE THE GFS IDEA THAT CLEARING CONDITIONS OCCUR BY
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
FEEL SOME OF THE MOS/MEX GUIDANCE MAY BE HIGH IN SPOTS SO WENT A
LITTLE COOLER FOR SOME PERIODS THIS WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE CURRENTLY SLATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THINK MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEARBY, KEEPING
FORECAST DRY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE A BACKDOOR
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF FALL AIR, PLENTY OF TIME
TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL STILL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS FOR THE MOST PART AND EVEN SOME LOCAL LIFR
PSBL. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIP
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KABE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK AND VFR
MAY ARRIVE LATER THU BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFID TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE WITH VFR EXPECTED AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WITH AN ONSHORE WIND ON THE OCEAN
AND AN 'UP THE BAY' WIND ON DELAWARE BAY. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 15 KNOTS AT THE ELEVATED PLATFORMS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO TO SRLY BY
THU MORNING AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO SWRLY BY THU AFTERNOON ON THE
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE, HOWEVER WITH
A OFFSHORE FLOW STILL EXPECT 3-4 FT SEAS. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AND CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE 25-30 KT WINDS WHICH
MEETS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONCERNED THAT GUSTS MAY
TREND HIGHER INTO GALE WARNING CONDITIONS, LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM
THE EXCESSIVE RAINS OF THE PAST MONTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NJ
TO COVER AREAS THAT STILL HAVE LOW FFG. FFA HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY ALONG THE OCEAN AND
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. THE
NEXT TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES...SO THE
LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER LEVELS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT WE ARE IN A PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE SITUATION. WE WILL ISSUE A CF.S FOR THE OCEAN FOR THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE (TONIGHT) SINCE LEVELS ILL ONLY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LEVELS. THE CF.S FOR THE RIVER WILL BE TAKEN DOWN BY 6PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O'HARA/GAINES
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O'HARA/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-291945-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ015-291945-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MERCER-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016>027-291945-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND
ADJACENT BACK BAYS DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT BACK
BAYS.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ070-071-291945-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND MAY
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-291945-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TIME FRAME
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
512 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ060-061-068-282215-
BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
512 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BERKS...LEHIGH AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF READING...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BALLY AROUND 530 PM...LYONS...
FLEETWOOD AROUND 545 PM...TOPTON...KUTZTOWN AROUND 600 PM...
CLAUSSVILLE AND SCHNECKSVILLE AROUND 615 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4065 7590 4069 7558 4024 7558 4024 7565
      4026 7567 4025 7570 4023 7573 4022 7581

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
529 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ054-282230-
CARBON PA-
529 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARBON COUNTY...

AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR TRESCKOW AND BEAVER MEADOWS
AROUND 545 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4074 7576 4074 7578 4084 7594 4090 7600
      4091 7600 4092 7599 4095 7588 4098 7584
      4098 7582

HAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHNECKSVILLE           40.68N  75.62W
09/28/2011                   LEHIGH             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100752

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ055-061-062-282330-
LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
631 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEHIGH...MONROE AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

AT 627 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALLENTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR NAZARETH...BATH AROUND 645
PM...BELFAST...EASTLAWN GARDENS AROUND 700 PM...BANGOR...ROSETO
AROUND 715 PM...EAST BANGOR AND PORTLAND AROUND 730 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4099 7513 4096 7514 4091 7508 4053 7536
      4064 7560 4081 7552 4082 7548 4085 7550
      4107 7538

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

NJZ007-PAZ055-061-062-290100-
LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-WARREN NJ-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEHIGH...MONROE...NORTHAMPTON AND
WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 756 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WIND GAP...BELFAST AROUND 815
PM...ROSETO...PEN ARGYL AROUND 830 PM...EAST BANGOR...PORTLAND AROUND
845 PM...DELAWARE WATER GAP AND DELAWARE WATER GAP AROUND 900 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4097 7490 4046 7551 4064 7583 4079 7563
      4082 7548 4088 7552 4114 7518

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ054-055-062-290200-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
853 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARBON...MONROE AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

AT 851 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT POCONO...
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
BRODHEADSVILLE...GILBERT AROUND 900 PM...REEDERS...POCONO RACEWAY
AROUND 915 PM...SCOTRUN...LONG POND AROUND 930 PM...MOUNT POCONO...
TOBYHANNA AROUND 945 PM...MOUNTAINHOME AND MOUNTAINHOME AROUND 1000
PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4124 7513 4116 7516 4115 7513 4076 7518
      4077 7562 4122 7556 4123 7554 4123 7552
      4125 7550 4125 7531 4126 7514

HAYES