Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ALONG A FRONT WHICH
STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG CAPE...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF BUT ONLY MODEST FORCING FOR
STORM-SCALE ASCENT...OUGHT TO LEAD TO SCATTERED BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH EXISTS JUST TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WAS TRANSLATING TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
COAST AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAS TRYING TO ERODE
NORTHWARD...AND MAY IN FACT CLEAR THE LAND AREAS DURING THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS LIKELY TO STAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH TO MANY
COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE STRONG LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE CONTRAST HELPS
ADVECT THIS FOG ONSHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT VERY
HIGH AT THIS TIME THAT A REPEAT OF TODAY/S FOG WILL OCCUR. AREAS OF
FOG WERE INSERTED INTO THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS...BUT VISIBILITIES
WERE NOT BROUGHT DOWN TO 1/4 MILE YET AS THE DENSEST FOG MAY BE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE.

BESIDES THOSE ISSUES...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE USED FOR MINIMUMS IN THIS WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VORTICITY TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INCREASED MID
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND CAPES FOR LATER FRIDAY INDICATE THAT
THE EASTERN EDGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY. ENHANCED WORDING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WAS INSERTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHICH CORRELATES WITH
SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS WELL AS ADDED CUMULUS MAY LIMIT THE HIGHS
FRIDAY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOONS MAXIMUMS. THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM MOS WAS FAVORED.

NORTHWESTERN CONVECTION SHOULD FADE FRIDAY EVENING AS DIURNAL
FORCING WANES AND THE PASSAGE OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CAUSES STORMS
TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR MOST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD EVEN BUILD OVER
THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED
REASONABLE...EXCEPT WAS BOOSTED A BIT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND PROGRESSES...THE VERY WARM SPELL THAT
BEGAN THE 24TH WILL BE CONTINUING AND PROBABLY CULMINATING IN 2 TO 4
DAYS OF 90 OR HIGHER HEAT HERE IN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE 90 DEGREES
WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FROM
VICINITY OF KPHL SOUTHWARD.

THE INGREDIENTS FOR THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER APPEAR TO BE
FALLING INTO PLACE. A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. WILL
HELP BUILD H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH UP INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AND
HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY.

SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
MAYBE NEXT THURSDAY.

OFFICIALLY A HEAT WAVE IS THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90 OR HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES NEXT MON-WED WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MORE LIKE WHAT WE WOULD HAVE IN JULY...RATHER THAN LATE
MAY.

MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z/26 GEFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE DIVERGING SOMEWHAT
ON THE MID WEEK SOLUTION AND SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPING
REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK
BUT OVERALL...FOR US HERE IN THE MID ATLC IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT
WONT BREAK UNTIL THURSDAY.

AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF THE THE MONTH A GENERALLY
LENGTHY DRY SPELL IS UNFOLDING WITH CONVECTION IF ANY...SEEMINGLY
RELEGATED TO THE NW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA...IF ANY.

TEMPS FOR THE MONTH ARE GOING TO AVERAGE ABOVE  TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...NOW AVERAGING AROUND 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST 25
DAYS AND THESE DEPARTURES ON THE POSITIVE SIDE WILL INCREASE THE
REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. EARLY EVENING CONVECTION MAY
GRAZE THE POCONOS TO VCNTY KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z. MVFR
FOG AT THE NON-URBAN SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. A BIT OF SOUTHERLY GUSTINESS AT SOME
SITES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDS 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE
FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH HUMID AIR IN PLACE, LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THERE A IS CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KRDG AND KABE ON FRIDAY, AND AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN,
KPNE, KPHL AND KILG ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES FORESEEN THRU AT LEAST FRI"DAY".

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WAX AND WANE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FEET RANGE, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THEY MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT TO
ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH TIDES UP DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY WERE RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WE WOULD NEED 1.5 FEET TO REACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
GIVEN THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. WITH A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE
WINDS EXPECTED AND GIVEN THE CBOFS/DBOFS FORECASTS, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FIRST 90 OR HIGHER FOR THE SEASON AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KPHL FIRST SINCE SEPT 24 2010
KTTN FIRST SINCE SEPT 22 2010
KGED FIRST SINCE SEPT 25 2010

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DELISI/DRAG 420P
MARINE...DELISI/DRAG 420P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...MEOLA/CLI FILES VIA XMACIS AND LOCALLY 420P

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-271930-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ067>071-
271930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020>027-271930-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME FOG LOCALLY DENSE
AND VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-271930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SOME FOG LOCALLY DENSE AND VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

PAZ054-262245-
CARBON PA-
550 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARBON COUNTY...

AT 544 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 MILES WEST OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND 645 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4099 7552 4080 7588 4090 7600 4092 7599
      4095 7588 4098 7584 4101 7575 4105 7578
      4109 7578 4114 7570 4114 7569

RPW