Special Marine Warning 31, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1010 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER OR JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN APPROACH THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND ERN NJ. THE SVR WATCH ISSUED EARLIER HAS EXPIRED.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF LIMBS DOWNED AND PENNY TO DIME SIZED HAIL AS
THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH. THE LSR REPORTS DETAIL THE TIMES AND
PLACES OF SVR WEATHER.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAY BREAK UP A LITTLE
TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BACK TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS DEPICT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLING OVER OR
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. WITH THIS FRONT IN OUR VICINITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
MORE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE MODELS ALSO DEPICTING A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NEAR OR ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE STALLING COLD
FRONT.

SHOWER AND TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
CLEARS OUR CWA LATE ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE WEEKEND TIMING IS NOT
GOOD, THE NEED FOR SOME PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING WITH EACH
PASSING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER
OUR REGION EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK WITH ITS AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD
AROUND TUESDAY. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE AROUND THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, PASSING OVER OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN, DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 0030Z, THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO THE EAST OF KABE AND KRDG.
THEY WERE MOVING THROUGH KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG AND THEY SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE PICTURE AT THOSE LOCATIONS BEFORE 0130Z. IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH KMIV AND KACY AND THE TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE 0100Z TO 0300Z TIME FRAME.

WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT KRDG BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. ALL TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH
LEVELS.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS TRIGGERING THE TSRAS TODAY WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE
WINDS FROM WEST TO NORTH SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND THEN FROM
NORTH TO EAST ON FRIDAY.

SOME SHRAS AND TSRAS MIGHT OCCUR DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
GREATEST CHANCES AS OF NOW APPEAR SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH, THEN GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL A LOW ON IT PASSES EAST OF OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY. SO WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR, THERE
WILL BE TIMES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WHERE SHRAS AND
TSRAS SHOULD RESTRICT BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS AND FOR
SHORT DURATIONS MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH THE CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ON-AND-OFF CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO END BY MONDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BECOMES ACTIVE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TRIES TO NOSE IN AND BRING DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

WE ANTICIPATE A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KLINE/O'HARA
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-017>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-110215-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1001 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ014-016-020>027-110215-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1001 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-110215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1001 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTTOWN TWP            39.94N  75.55W
06/09/2011                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIND DAMAGE TO A GROVE OF TREES... TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100235

PDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-100400-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PENNSVILLE...
MILLVILLE
948 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MILES AN HOUR...SMALL HAIL...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST AROUND 30 MILES AN HOUR.

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAHONING TWP            40.81N  75.77W
06/09/2011                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100236

PDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOLCHESTER              39.22N  76.24W
06/09/2011                   KENT               MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100237

PDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

DEZ002-100230-
KENT DE-
959 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KENT COUNTY...

AT 955 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR DOVER AROUND 1005 PM AND LITTLE CREEK
AROUND 1010 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3926 7571 3930 7543 3924 7538 3918 7539
      3915 7540 3914 7539 3909 7540 3908 7569

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             BRIDGETON               39.43N  75.23W
06/09/2011  M1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND ESTIMATED AT 45 MPH

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100238

PO