River Flood Warning 205, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

164 
WGUS81 KPHI 231659
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
1159 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN AFFECTING CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND 
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES 
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING PHILADELPHIA AND 
  MONTGOMERY COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

PAC029-091-101-240259-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0205.000000T0000Z-111124T1000Z/
/NRSP1.1.ER.111123T1022Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0400Z.NO/
1159 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN.
* AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.5 FEET BY THIS 
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...RIVER ROAD IN WEST CONSHOHOCKEN BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD. THE LOWER GARAGES AT THE RIVERVIEW LANDING AND THE LOFTS AT 
  VALLEY FORGE START TO TAKE ON WATER. THE LOWER SECTION OF PORT INDIAN 
  ROAD IN WEST NORRITON BECOMES IMPASSABLE.

$$

PAC091-101-240000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FL.W.0211.111123T1800Z-111124T0000Z/
/PADP1.1.ER.111123T1800Z.111123T1800Z.111123T1800Z.NO/
1159 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT PHILADELPHIA.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...KELLY DRIVE IS FLOODED AND CLOSED BETWEEN 
  HUNTING PARK AVENUE AND FALLS BRIDGE. THE FLAT ROCK AREA IS FLOODED.

$$

                   FLD     OBSERVED           FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

SCHUYLKILL RIVER
  NORRISTOWN       13.0   14.15  WED 11 AM   14.5    WED 1 PM 
  PHILADELPHIA     11.0   10.60  WED 11 AM   11.0    WED 1 PM 

&&

218 
WGUS81 KPHI 232019
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
319 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  BRANDYWINE CREEK AT CHADDS FORD AFFECTING CHESTER AND DELAWARE COUNTIES
  
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN AFFECTING CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND 
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

PAC029-045-240600-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0208.000000T0000Z-111124T0600Z/
/CDFP1.1.ER.111123T1315Z.111123T2000Z.111124T0000Z.NO/
319 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BRANDYWINE CREEK AT CHADDS FORD.
* AT 3:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...THE INTERSECTION OF CREEK ROAD AND ROUTE 926 
  NEAR POCOPSON FLOODS UPSTREAM OF CHADDS FORD.

$$

PAC029-091-101-240619-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0205.000000T0000Z-111124T0900Z/
/NRSP1.1.ER.111123T1022Z.111123T1815Z.111124T0300Z.NO/
319 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN.
* AT 2:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...RIVER ROAD IN WEST CONSHOHOCKEN BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD. THE LOWER GARAGES AT THE RIVERVIEW LANDING AND THE LOFTS AT 
  VALLEY FORGE START TO TAKE ON WATER. THE LOWER SECTION OF PORT INDIAN 
  ROAD IN WEST NORRITON BECOMES IMPASSABLE.

$$

                   FLD     OBSERVED           FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

SCHUYLKILL RIVER
  NORRISTOWN       13.0   14.04  WED 2 PM     CRESTED AND FALLING 

BRANDYWINE CREEK
  CHADDS FORD      9.0    10.01  WED 3 PM     APPROACHING CREST 

&&

165 
WGUS81 KPHI 240304
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT
NORRISTOWN...

&&

PAC029-091-101-240334-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0205.000000T0000Z-111124T0900Z/
/NRSP1.1.ER.111123T1022Z.111123T1815Z.111124T0045Z.NO/
1004 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN.
* AT 9:30 PM...THE STAGE WAS 12.60 FEET AND FALLING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

$$

                   FLD     OBSERVED           FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

SCHUYLKILL RIVER
  NORRISTOWN       13.0   12.60  WED 930 PM   CRESTED 

&&

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO OUR
AREA...WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY TUESDAY MAY AFFECT OUR AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FIRST SHOT OR PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT...WITH THE NEXT SHOT
MOVING ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. ALSO SEEING A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH A WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY. FINALLY...A
WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE AREA IS MOSTLY RAIN
FREE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS ALLOWING HIGHER
DEW POINTS TO ADVECT INTO THAT AREA.

THE MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE TIED TO A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE RICH AIR IS RIDING NORTHEAST ON
A 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. FOR THE MOST PART...THE AIRMASS IS STABLE
EVEN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE IS INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...AND THIS COULD BE ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE TIED TO THE INSTABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE HRRR ADVECTS THIS INSTABILITY INTO NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH ABOUT 1500 UTC.
BASED ON THIS...WILL HOLD ONTO THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THESE
AREAS. THE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGH...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF ON ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
NE JERSEY THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES
OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOULD RESULT IN FLOODING. MORE ON THE FLOODING
ISSUES IS INCLUDED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE MAIN MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCOURED BY THE
FRONT AND EXITING LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST. WHILE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DRY OUT OUT THE LOWER LEVELS...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY MEANINGFUL
CLEARING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO
SKY COVER FOR ALL AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA...AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN AREAS.

THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH MOS VALUES...AND ARE ACCEPTED.
ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WERE MAINLY BASED ON THE MOS BLEND. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS MAY HAVE
TEMPERATURES BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WAS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

FINALLY...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WINDS IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS FROM MID AFTERNOON ON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DARK...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WIND. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
CONSIDERABLY. THE GRADIENT ITSELF WOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR THE COAST
SUGGEST A THREE HOUR WIND CENTERED AROUND 0000 UTC WHEN 43 KNOTS OF
WIND MAY BE AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.

THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME OF THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...WHEN
PRESSURE RISES OF 6 TO 7 MB IN 3 HOURS ARE FORECAST. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF NEAR WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTION OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. RIGHT NOW...THE CONFIDENCE DOES NOT EXIST FOR THE ISSUANCE
OF A WIND ADVISORY.

THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING (PROBABLY BEFORE 0300 UTC THURSDAY). WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH ITSELF...A
MENTION OF SHOWERS WAS LEFT IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE
BEST GRADIENT OCCURS DURING THE EVENING...AND WEAKENS DURING THE
LATE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT AND COOLING OF
THE LOWEST LEVELS COULD ALLOW SOME PROTECTED AREAS TO DECOUPLE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
MOS VALUES...BUT OVERALL...WITH A MIXED ENVIRONMENT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...LOWS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE A SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT ON INDICATING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. IT
SEEMS TO BE AN ANAFRONT...SO HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE USED SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY WEST AND
CENTRAL. THEN...LOW PRESSURE FORMING SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE HANDLED
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
LATTER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS
COMPARED WITH THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN ON EACH IS SIMILAR. BUT, THIS MEANS A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF FEATURES.
SO...AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER BROAD BRUSH WAS USED WITH HIGH
CHANCE PROBABILITIES GENERALLY EMPLOYED. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION, AND IT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS WERE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM HPC
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST SHOT OF STEADIER RANI HAS EXITED THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN. THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN IS WAITING ACROSS WESTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS SHOT OF RAIN MOVES INTO
THE AREA...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOW PRESENT IN THE KDIX VWP AND AMDAR
SOUNDINGS OUT OF KPHL...WITH 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. THE GREATEST
EFFECTS OF THE OW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE BEING FELT FROM KPHL SOUTH
AND WEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PUSHING THE NEXT SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 1100 UTC AND 1400
UTC. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY SERVE AS A WIND SHIFT...WITH LITTLE NI THE
WAY OF DRYING BEHIND. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1600 UTC WEST AND 1900 UTC EAST. DRYING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD HELP CEILINGS JUMP TO MVFR...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. LOOKS FOR CEILINGS TO FINALLY GET
TO VFR BETWEEN 1900 UTC AND 2200 UTC...FROM WEST TO EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...AND
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES...SHOULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BETWEEN 29 AND 35 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0600 UTC...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL.

ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 0000 UTC...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND INTO MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA WILL LIKELY HANG ON INTO
SUNDAY. THURSDAY MAY START WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF WEDNESDAYS FRONT, AS THE GRADIENT IS STILL A LITTLE STRONG.
HOWEVER...ANY GUSTY MORNING WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY BRING SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEN...THE WEATHER BECOMES
MORE COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN, AS EXTENSIVE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST IS LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER-MAKER FOR OUR AREA IN THE
EARLY AND MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AVIATION CONDITIONS COULD BE
LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS CLOSE TO SANDY HOOK. THE EASTERLY
FETCH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SMALL CRAFT SEAS.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND REMAIN
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER PROBABLY
DOES NOT ALLOW THE MOMENTUM FROM THE PASSING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE...SO WINDS PROBABLY STAY NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS HERE ARE ALSO ABOVE 5 FEET...AS A
RESULT OF THE PREVIOUS EASTERLY SWELL..

THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE ENTIRE COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE COLD CROSSES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MOMENTUM AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROBABLY DOES
NOT ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES...MODEL SOUNDINGS A PERIOD OF WEST WINDS WHICH MAY
NOT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN...AND PERHAPS 5 FEET ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS
EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY. THE GRADIENT
ITSELF IS BORDERLINE FOR GALES...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING TO
ALLOW ACCESS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND. THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40 KNOTS DURING A TIME WINDOW OF 0100 UTC TO 0600 UTC THURSDAY.

FURTHER NORTH...THE GRADIENT IS ABOUT AS STRONG...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH THE MIXING. BOTTOM LINE...THE GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX TOWARD 0900 UTC...AND ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THEN...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRECEDE
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. SMALL STREAMS HAVE
RESPONDED AND FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THE NEXT SLUG IS
AFFECTING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND IS MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE IS BEING DRIVEN BY A 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
THE AIRMASS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.50
INCHES...AND IS STARTING TO PRESENT SOME CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS.
THIS NEXT SLUG COULD PUSH SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ABOVE
FLOOD...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...RUNOFF MAY PRESENT PROBLEMS AFTER THIS...SO THE TIMING OF
THE WATCH REMAINS THE SAME. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WERE ADDED TO THE
WATCH EARLIER...AS UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A PROBLEM FOR
STREAMS AND CREEKS THERE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDE DEPARTURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN
THREE-QUARTERS OF A FOOT AND ONE AND ONE-HALF FEET ABOVE PREDICTED.
THE LARGEST DEPARTURES WERE SEEN ALONG THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COAST
AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT OCCURS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 630
AM...AND LATER ON THE BACK BAYS. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH...AND CROSSES MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE PILING OF WATER BY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO BRING MOST OCEAN LOCATIONS ABOVE THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
BENCHMARK.

SHOULD THE TIDAL DEPARTURES STAY THIS HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...A FEW PLACES COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE (SUCH AS SANDY
HOOK...WHICH STAYS IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THE LONGEST). HOWEVER...THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED...AND ALL TIDE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPARTURES
START DROPPING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

THE HIGH TIDE IN THE DELAWARE BAY OCCURS A BIT LATER (850 AM AT
REEDY POINT...FOR EXAMPLE). THE TIDE DEPARTURES THERE WOULD SUPPORT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...DESPITE THE FACT THAT ALL TIDE MODELS
REVIEWED FOR THE AREA SUGGEST TIDES WILL FALL SHORT OF THE
BENCHMARK. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE
DELAWARE RIVER WILL COME IN UNDER THE BENCHMARK. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...AS THE DEPARTURE NOW WOULD SUPPORT REACHING THAT LEVEL.

THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIDE IS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS TO ONE
FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND
INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EKMAN SPIRAL
MASS TRANSPORT (BUT IT MAY NOT BE IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO MATTER)
TOWARD THE BEACH. RIGHT NOW...THIS TIDE DOES NOT APPEAR TO PRESENT A
PROBLEM.

THE NEXT TIDE OF INTEREST WOULD BE THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE WIND...THE MDL EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT THE OCEAN FRONT WILL SEE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. THIS IS MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAYES
MARINE...HAYES
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-240845-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND CAUSE ROAD AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-240845-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND CAUSE ROAD AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ012-240845-
MIDDLESEX-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND CAUSE ROAD AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-PAZ070-071-240845-
NEW CASTLE-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND CAUSE ROAD AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ016>019-240845-
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND CAUSE ROAD AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-240845-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND CAUSE ROAD AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-240845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
332 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
203 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

NJZ001-007-009-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-231000-
SUSSEX-WARREN-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
203 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING...

A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 500 AM. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND BECOME GUSTY.

THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR...BUT DURING THAT TIME
WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD TAKE DOWN
SMALL TREE BRANCHES...WHICH IS TURN COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-PAZ055-061-062-067>071-
231100-
ATLANTIC NJ-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER
NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE
PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
308 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW
JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING...

AT 306 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF MOUNT POCONO TO 11 MILES WEST OF ELKTON...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR ANALOMINK...ALPINE MOUNTAIN...
WESTTOWN...VALLEY FORGE AROUND 315 AM...WILSON...NEWARK...
GRADYVILLE...FORKS AROUND 320 AM...ECHO LAKE AND TALLEYVILLE AROUND
325 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 3981 7407 3952 7425 3954 7607 3957 7611
      3985 7586 4044 7553 4113 7542 4113 7445
      4104 7449 4100 7430 4091 7427 4059 7444
      4060 7421 4047 7426 4041 7399 4047 7401
      4047 7399 4041 7396

HAYES