Excessive Heat Watch 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Kent County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA

974 
WWUS71 KPHI 201929
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION...

.OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...STRETCHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY RIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-016-
020>023-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-211000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.EH.A.0003.110721T1600Z-110723T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.EH.W.0003.110721T1600Z-110724T0000Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...PENNSVILLE...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...
HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...WHARTON STATE FOREST...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM
329 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
8 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AROUND 105 DEGREES THURSDAY...NEAR 110
  DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES SATURDAY.

* TIMING...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
  RIGHT NOW...THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
  DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-211000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.EH.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110724T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
329 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THIS
  AFTERNOON...NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 110 TO 115
  DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110
  DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...
  WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS OCCURRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
  DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES. THIS WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
  SATURDAY... AND EVEN CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM AND
  HUMID IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
  NOT DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...
STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM... STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND
CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. KEEP YOUR PETS IN A COOL
LOCATION WITH PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING
CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE YOUR RISK WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS... THE OCCUPATIONAL
SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT
REST BREAKS IN A SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT. ANYONE
OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION.
HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY... CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

HAYES/GAINES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL EITHER
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OR DISSIPATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND PROBABLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. HOWEVER, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SETTLE INTO PARTS OF OUR REGION FOR A TIME
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THEN BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. AN
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE RIDGE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. A TROUGH WAS IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AN
AREA OF STRONG WAA AT 850 MB WAS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A 300 MB JET
WAS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL CANADA THEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.

THE MAIN EMPHASIS IS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THAT WILL OVERSPREAD NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA. MORE ABOUT THIS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WILL GLANCE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IF AIDED BY
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SOME OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
OR RENEWED ONES WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WHAT
WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. OVERALL, WE ARE EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
BE LESS IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG
AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO EVENTUAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY, THEREFORE WILL JUST CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN MCS ROLLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LARGE RIDGE. SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THIS COULD BE CARRIED EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FOR A
TIME TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO COOL GIVEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. THE TWO METER TEMPERATURE
DATA OFF THE NAM FOR EXAMPLE GETS KPHL TO NEAR 94 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERLY WIND COULD TEMPER THIS A
TOUCH. OVERALL, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY REGARDING HIGHS.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
WILL GET HEAT INDICES VERY NEAR 100 DEGREES, THEREFORE WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH
100 DEGREES BUT THIS MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SO NO HEADLINES
ATTM. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES COOLER THAN INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL MOSTLY BE HIGHLIGHTED BY EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN INVOLVES A LARGE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHICH
WILL FLATTEN SOME AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED WEST TO EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS, EVEN HOTTER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY,
AND MAY LINGER EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP MAINLY
INDUCED BY EITHER TERRAIN OR ENHANCED SEA/BAY BREEZES WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY AS THERE IS A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. OTHERWISE, SOME
LINGERING MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY DUE TO ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. ANY ENHANCED SEA/BAY BREEZES WILL DISSIPATE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES, LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND. THERE IS A WEALTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE, RESULTING IN RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH NOT MUCH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY BEGINS THE UPTICK IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CLIMB AS RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ALLOWING HOTTER AIR TO ADVECT OUR
WAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING +27C TO +29C AIR AT 925
MB, WHICH TRANSLATES INTO MOSTLY UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE, ONE LOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT
THESE MIX OUT SOME DURING PEAK HEATING. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG WITH A SIGNAL INDICATING THIS WILL HAPPEN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY AND THE TIME THE HEAT AND HUMID
HAS HAD BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, ANY MIXING
OUT OF THE DEW POINTS MAY BE LIMITED WHICH WILL ADD TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION, THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE. PERHAPS ENOUGH FORCING BY A SEA BREEZE COULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING TO GET BY ANY CAPPING.

FRIDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE PEAKING OF THE HEAT /ALTHOUGH IT
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY/ AS THE THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +29C ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
AREA. A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN
WEST-EAST HEAT RIDGE SO IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH WITH IT AND ALSO NOT
GET THAT FAR SOUTH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKNESS SLIDING BY
TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE AIRMASS ALOFT TO COOL A LITTLE BIT MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THIS ALSO SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
FOR A TIME. WE BELIEVE THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION, A GOOD PART OF THE
AREA WILL BE STARTING THE DAY ON THE RATHER WARM SIDE. THERE STILL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
/STRONGEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA/,
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC. THERE IS
SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY TO PERHAPS PROVIDE SOME LOCAL
RELIEF IN THE FORM OF A THUNDERSTORM. THE WARMTH OF THE AIRMASS MAY
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST WEAKLY CAPPED.

REGARDING HEADLINES, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL
EXTEND IT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THIS AREA USES SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGY. SURROUNDING THIS WARNING, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE A SOLID HEAT ADVISORY DAY WITH WARNING HEAT INDEX CRITERIA
BEING REACHED IN MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WE DO NOT WANT TO CONFUSE
PEOPLE WITH DIFFERENT HEADLINES, PLUS FACTORING IN THAT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS NOT JUST ONE DAY. THEREFORE, WE WILL GO WITH AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH REGARDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS ANY SLIGHT TURNING OF THE WIND TO MORE SOUTHERLY
WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER DUE TO AN OCEAN INFLUENCE. WE WENT
AHEAD AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO'S BGM/CTP AND INCLUDED THE
POCONOS AS IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES CARRY LOWER CONFIDENCE AS
THE EASTERN PORTION MAY NOT GET TO WARNING CRITERIA BECAUSE OF ANY
POSSIBLE OCEAN INFLUENCE. FOR SIMPLICITY, WE WILL INCLUDE THEM AT
THIS POINT AS IT LOOKS RATHER CLOSE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE FOLLOWED BY SOME MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***DANGEROUS RECORD BREAKING HEAT SATURDAY WITH THE HEAT WAVE
EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST 7 DAYS BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING EARLY NEXT
WEEK***

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AROUND 100 DEGREE MAX TEMPS APPEAR
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS OF 75 TO 82F. THE 70S
DEWPOINTS SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
DAY. EFFECTIVELY NEARLY AS DANGEROUS AS FRIDAY....ESPECIALLY WITH A
PROBABLE VERY WARM START /BARRING ANY FRIDAY EVENING THUNDERSTORM/.
FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE S NJ SE PA AND E MD AND DEL ARE MORE FAVORED FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM. 1500J ML CAPE EVEN IN THE EARLY MORNING SAT.
SHEAR IS WEAK.  MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OR SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE ON CONTINUED EXCESSIVE HEAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS
BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE MID 90S BUT A BIT DRIER DEWPOINTS WITH AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST BL FLOW DAY. STILL A HAZARD HEAT DAY PROBABLE FOR THE
INTERIOR BUT SUBSTANTIVE RELIEF PROBABLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 10 MI
OF THE COAST. LOOKS DRY MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH WAA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT.  CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL RELIEF ABOVE AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE
DELAWARE VALLEY WESTWARD IS AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MIGHT BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SCT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR AS
PER THE 00Z/20 ECMWF SOLUTION MUCH COOLER?  NO MATTER...MORE FAVORABLE
SHEAR THAN SATURDAY.  UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE A FEELING THAT
THESE POPS FOR MONDAY ARE FAR TOO LOW.  CONFIDENCE MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE ON THE TEMPS AND POPS.

TUESDAY...WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND POSSIBLY THE BIG HEAT
IS SQUASHED SOUTH!  CONFIDENCE ON RELIEF IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

SUMMARIZING....VERY HOT TO START THE WEEKEND BUT NOTICEABLE-WELCOME
RELIEF SHOULD ARRIVE BY TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SOONER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TIL 12Z TODAY...PATCHY LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS WHERE IT RAINED HEAVILY
LATE TUESDAY OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NJ/DEL. OTRW A BIT OF MVFR HAZE
TOWARD DAWN WITH VFR.   FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY PRODUCT IS SHOWING THE
FOG NICELY AS THE CIRRUS CLEARS SEWD.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...QUICKLY BECOMING VFR WITH SE WIND BECOMING S
TOWARD 22Z. GUSTS UNDER 15KTS. SCT CU DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR
5-6000 FT.   EC OFFERS A CHC OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM THIS AFTN.
FOR NOW NO CB MENTION IN THE GRIDS PER THE DRIER NCEP MODEL
GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...VFR MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR F OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. WIND BECOMING
SW 5 -12 KTS.  NCEP MODEL TSECS HAVE LOTS OF SFC RH AS EARLY AS
00Z/21.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...MAY BEND SSW AT KACY DUE TO
OCEAN COOLER SST INFLUENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. LOW PROB LATE DAY TSTM OR AT NIGHT? AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F WILL LEAD TO DENSITY ALTITUDE IMPLICATIONS.

SATURDAY...VFR OCNL CIGS AOA 5000 FT. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
OF A TSTM WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS...BUT HIGHLY DIVERSE MULTIPLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  CONFIDENCE ON ANY TSTM PREDICTION FOR SATURDAY IS MUCH
BELOW AVG.

SUNDAY...VFR MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT NIGHT?
WIND SHOULD BECOME E OR SE OVER ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE OR RIP CURRENT HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

WINDS AND WAVES MAY ELEVATE A BIT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OUTER ATLC
COASTAL WATERS OF NJ HAVE 5 FT SEA.

HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG LAND-WATER TEMPERATURE CONTRAST,
WINDS AT THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE...INCLUDING INLETS...MAY ALSO BE
A BIT GUSTY NEAR THE SEA / BAY BREEZE REGIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SE FLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND (WHERE AVAILABLE) MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 21ST, 22ND, AND 23RD.

PHL...103(1930) / 78(1930,1934,1977,1991,1994)
      100(1926,1955,1957) / 79(1926)
       99(1978,1991) / 80(1978)

ABE...101(1930,1980) / 75(1980)
      101(1926) / 76(1994)
       99(1955) / 77(1978)

ILG...102(1930,1957) / 78(1896)
      101(1957) / 78(1972)
       99(1991) / 78(1972)

ACY...102(1930) / 77(1991)
       98(1998) / 78(1952)
      100(1991) / 80(1952)

MPO...92(1980,1991) / 70(1949)
      93(1955) / 68(1949)
      91(1955) / 70(1978,2003)

RDG...102(1926) / 77(1940)
      101(1926) / 75(1940,1949)
       99(1955) / 75(1972,1991)

TTN...101(1930) / NA
      101(1926) / NA
       99(1987,1991) / NA

GED...101(1957) / NA
      101(1977) / NA
      101(1952) / NA

MONTHLY MEAN TEMP AT PHL SHOULD END UP TOP 10 WARMEST AND JUST BEHIND
LAST JULY WHICH COULD BE TOP 5. MORE AT 5AM ON THIS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-016-020>023-027.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ002-003.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
CLIMATE...DELISI/DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-210300-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012-013-020>023-027-
PAZ060>062-210300-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-210300-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ016-210300-
SALEM-
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-210300-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-210300-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.