Dense Fog Advisory 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Delaware County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

355 
WWUS71 KPHI 050453
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-051400-
/O.EXA.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...
EASTON...DENTON
1153 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

* VISIBILITIES...FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER
  MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT, AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
  MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE
YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

DEZ001>004-NJZ013-014-016>027-051400-
/O.CON.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
1153 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY NEAR AND 
  SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. 

* VISIBILITIES...FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER 
  MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT, AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
  MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE
YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

929 
WWUS71 KPHI 050856
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

NJZ008-010-012-015-PAZ070-071-051400-
/O.EXA.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
MORRIS-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
356 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR
  SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA.

* VISIBILITIES...FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER 
  MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT, AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
  MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE
YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-051400-
/O.CON.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
356 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...DELAWARE, THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS
  OF NEW JERSEY NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

* VISIBILITIES...FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER 
  MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT, AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
  MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE
YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

130 
WWUS71 KPHI 051100
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

NJZ009-PAZ067>069-051400-
/O.EXA.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
HUNTERDON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
600 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA. 

* VISIBILITIES...FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER 
  MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT, AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
  MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, 
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-
051400-
/O.CON.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...MORRISTOWN...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...
HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
600 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA, DELAWARE AND
  THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. 

* VISIBILITIES...FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER 
  MILE OR LESS AT MANY LOCATIONS. 

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT, AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
  MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, 
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

HEAVENER/DELISI

006 
WWUS71 KPHI 051402
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

DEZ002>004-NJZ008-023>025-051515-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1400Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MORRIS-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
MORRISTOWN...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
902 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. 

VISIBILITIES WERE IN THE PROCESS OF IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTS WERE STILL AROUND 1/2 MILE IN FOG. THESE AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING.

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>022-026-027-
PAZ067>071-051515-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
902 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE DEGRADED...AND WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE
  LOWEST IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
  THROUGH LATE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING... SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR
HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW BEAM SETTING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE
AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

190 
WWUS71 KPHI 051458
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>022-026-027-
PAZ067>071-051600-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111205T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
958 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011

...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

WHILE THERE WERE STILL SPOTS WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/4 TO 1/2
MILE IN FOG AROUND 10:00 AM, MANY AREAS HAD IMPROVED TO 1/2 MILE
OR BETTER. FURTHER GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND
AT MIDDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE SLOWLY.

WHERE THERE ARE STILL LINGERING AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING,
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...AND WATCH FOR
PEDESTRIANS, BICYCLES, AND MOTORCYCLES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...CROSSING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER COLDER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. OBSERVATIONS AROUND
DELAWARE BAY ARE SHOWING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
NOT SURE HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD, BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON IT. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD MORE FOG TO
THE GRIDS. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO NOT DROP AS LOW AS THIS MORNING,
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE AIRMASS MODIFYING TO HIGHER READINGS ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AFTER BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS MONDAY MORNING, MORE IN THE
WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER MONDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE WINDIER THAN LOWER ELEVATIONS,
AS 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY START TO OFFER A LITTLE
FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, BUT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE WAS USED HERE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH A MINORITY OR LACK OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURE RISE WILL HAVE TO
BE AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS. A BLEND OF
THE COOLER GFS MOS AND WARMER NAM MOS WAS USED, HEDGING TOWARD THE
GFS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S WELL SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CONSENSUS
CONCERNING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SPREAD TO
HAVE SOME TREPIDATION ABOUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE TWO PIECES TO THE WEATHER
PUZZLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FIRST PIECE IS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DEEP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES MAXIMIZED LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN POCONOS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE AIRMASS SOURCE IS NOT YET QUITE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO
WHILE SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...THE
QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AHEAD FROM THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING...MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE SHOWER FREE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS COULD SEE DRIZZLE
AND FOG AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION ONCE
AGAIN. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
KEEP THE AIRMASS WELL MIXED IN THE ALBEIT LOW INVERSION...SO LOWS
WERE BASED MAINLY IN THE MOS BLEND.

A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...EJECTED FROM THE DEVELOPING
POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. THE TIMING REPRESENTS A SPEEDING UP OF THE PROCESS ACROSS
THE NORTH. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT ARE STILL SLOWER WITH
THE OVERALL PROGRESSION...THE CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE SHORT WAVE
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH FOLLOWING THE FRONT (AS IT ACTS AS A FOCUS). PROBABLY
TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DESTABILIZATION...
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL. WHILE MIXING TUESDAY WILL
BE FROM LOWER LEVELS DUE TO CLOUDINESS...THE MOS BLEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD FOR HIGHS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS...WHERE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LAST.

THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BODILY SHOVE THE
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THAT...DRYING IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW NORTHERN AREAS TO
CLEAR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THE COLDER NAM MOS
NUMBERS WOULD VERIFY AS THE AIRMASS IS COLDER WITH LITTLE MIXING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE AIRMASS CHANGE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE
AS CLEAN...SO LOWS WERE BASED MAINLY ON THE MOS BLEND.

AFTER THIS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE OPENING MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
THE ARKLATEX SCOOTS THROUGH THE INCREASING FAST FLOW...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT DAMPENED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN THE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
RAIN AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS...AS NORTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE
TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.

THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE CONSENSUS. THIS MEANS THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN AT BAY...SO AT THIS POINT PRECIPITATION
TYPE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE. THIS FORECAST WOULD ALSO RESULT
IN CLEARING LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE CONSENSUS IGNORES THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM...IE THE
1200 UTC GFS. THE GFS KEEP THE SHORT WAVE MORE INTACT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FLOW...AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE POSITION OF THE
SHORT WAVE ALLOWS LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO INCREASE...AND ALLOWS THE
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

WITH COLD AIR JUST TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THIS
SCENARIO WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON WOULD LIE
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE GFS SHOWS
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THIS AREA...IMPLYING
STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND POTENTIALLY ISOTHERMAL CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM WOULD BECOME
GUSTY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THIS IS THE
OUTLIER SOLUTION...AND FOR NOW IS DISCARDED.

IN ANY EVENT...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE...THIS TIME IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS...
BUT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE MAY DELIVER THE COOLEST
AIRMASS OF THE YOUNG SEASON. THE AIRMASS IS DRY...SO THAT THIS PINT
THERE FRONT THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SHORT WAVE MAY BE DRY FOR THE MOST
PART.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLD DAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATES DROPPING
TO NEAR MINUS 13 CELSIUS. THERE COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ELSEWHERE THE LOW LEVELS
MAY BE TOO DRY FOR FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SHORT WAVE EXITS
QUICKLY...AND HEIGHTS START TO RISE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE ST AND FOG ALREADY PUSHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, WILL
TREND THE TAFS DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
FROM SE TO NW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN THE NW AREAS AND
IFR/LIFR IN THE SE AREAS.

THEN, WITH THE INVERSION WEAKENING BY MID MORNING, CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR ARE FORECAST BY LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY.
HOWEVER, HIGHER CIRROSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
OUR AREA AS WELL.

SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS LIKELY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RECONNECTS LATER MONDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY SOUTH
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS...OR 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ARE FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD SPREAD OUT AND
RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. ROUGH TIMING
ON THE LOW CEILINGS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 030 UTC TUESDAY...AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KRDG AND KABE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
PASSAGE OF A LOW LEVEL JET COULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS...BUT THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT JUST YET.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE KEY AS TO WHETHER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACTUALLY
OCCURS.

IMPROVEMENT COULD BE SLOW TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
IN AND PLACE AND NOT ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO MIX OUT TO HIGHER
CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE SITUATION...BUT THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS.

CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND JUST
ABOUT ALL AREAS SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS BY 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT DOES NOT GET THAT FAR SOUTH...SO SOUTHERN TERMINALS LOCATIONS
MAY HANG ONTO THE CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH...
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK FOR A TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR PLACES LIKE
KACY...KMIV...KILG AND KPHL. FURTHER NORTH...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COULD STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR PERHAPS JUST MVFR
CEILINGS. THE RAIN SHOULD SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY (THOUGH TIMING ON
THIS IS STILL A QUESTION MARK). AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A FAST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD SLOWLY MONDAY TO THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1
OR 2 FT ON DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH GETS
FURTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE MIXED LAYER OVER THE OCEAN IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LOWER WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE
LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SURFACE. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THOUGH GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING COULD GET CLOSE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BEST SURFACE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AS THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT
MOVES SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LIMITS...THOUGH THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE OUTLIER (THE 1200 UTC GFS) THAT WOULD RAISE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH AT
LEAST PART OF THIS POTENTIAL.

WEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...RPW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES/RPW
MARINE...HAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-052045-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ008>010-015-PAZ067>069-052045-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
052045-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-052045-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
341 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

DEZ001-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-050530-
NEW CASTLE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
922 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011

...FOG WILL RAPIDLY OVERTAKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING AREA OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THIS FOG BANK. PLEASE USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THROUGH THIS FOG BANK AND KEEP YOUR
HEADLIGHTS ON THE LOW-BEAM SETTING.

HEAVENER