Coastal Flood Warning 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

114 
WHUS41 KPHI 301757
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-301900-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-110930T1800Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
157 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE THREAT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL END BY 200 PM EDT. 

$$

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ069-071-302100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0007.110930T1900Z-110930T2300Z/
MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BUCKS-PHILADELPHIA-
157 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES ON 
  BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. HIGH 
  TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH 9.0 TO 9.5 FEET. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA OCCURS AT 430 PM EDT. HIGH
  TIDE AT BURLINGTON CITY, NJ OCCURS AT 520 PM EDT. HIGH TIDE AT
  NEWBOLD, PA OCCURS AT 540 PM EDT. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING DURING 
  SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AROUND THE TIME OF 
  HIGH TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ016-017-PAZ070-302100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-110930T2100Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-DELAWARE-
157 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES 
  SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA OCCURS BETWEEN ABOUT 
  200 PM AND 430 PM EDT. 

* IMPACTS...LOCATIONS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO 
  EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

610 
WHUS41 KPHI 302101
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

DEZ001-NJZ016-017-PAZ070-302215-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-110930T2100Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-DELAWARE-
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED...AND TIDE HEIGHTS ARE FALLING. 

$$

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ069-071-302300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110930T2300Z/
MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BUCKS-PHILADELPHIA-
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES ON 
  BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. HIGH 
  TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH 9.0 TO 9.5 FEET. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT BURLINGTON CITY...NJ OCCURS AT 520 PM EDT.
  HIGH TIDE AT NEWBOLD...PA OCCURS AT 540 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING DURING 
  SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AROUND THE TIME OF 
  HIGH TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

536 
WHUS41 KPHI 302133
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
533 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ069-071-302300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110930T2300Z/
MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BUCKS-PHILADELPHIA-
533 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES ON 
  BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT NEWBOLD...PA OCCURS AT 540 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING DURING 
  SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AROUND THE TIME OF 
  HIGH TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

MDZ012-015-019-020-010300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0041.110930T2133Z-111001T0300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
533 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

* LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY

* COASTAL FLOODING...SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
  AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT CAMBRIDGE OCCURS AT 714 PM. HIGH TIDE AT
  TOLCHESTER BEACH OCCURS AT 1014 PM.

* IMPACTS...MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREA MOST
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO TIDAL FLOODING.

$$

948 
WHUS41 KPHI 302221
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

MDZ012-015-019-020-010300-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.S.0041.000000T0000Z-111001T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0051.110930T2221Z-111001T0300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
621 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME
  OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT CAMBRIDGE OCCURS AT 714 PM. HIGH TIDE AT 
  TOLCHESTER BEACH OCCURS AT 1014 PM. 

* IMPACTS...ROADWAY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ069-071-302330-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110930T2300Z/
MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BUCKS-PHILADELPHIA-
621 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES ON 
  BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE HAS CRESTED AND IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING DURING 
  SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD AROUND THE TIME OF 
  HIGH TIDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

615 
WHUS41 KPHI 302302
CFWPHI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ069-071-010015-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110930T2300Z/
MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BUCKS-PHILADELPHIA-
702 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS COMPLETED AND THE TIDE CONTINUES TO RECEDE. 

$$

MDZ012-015-019-020-010300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-111001T0300Z/
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
702 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 
  TIME OF HIGH TIDE. 

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT CAMBRIDGE OCCURS AT 714 PM. HIGH TIDE AT 
  TOLCHESTER BEACH OCCURS AT 1014 PM. 

* IMPACTS...ROADWAY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH ONE COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE ANOTHER MORE POTENT FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND PINWHEEL A FEW TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COASTAL
LOW FORMS AND RIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. FINALLY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KICK THE STALLED FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER ON SUNDAY THROUGH A BETTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***NOT PROMISING DRY WEATHER FOR AWHILE***

NEXT CF IS GOING TO BECOME ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE RAIN HERE.

THE PRE CF TROUGH PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTN IS SIMPLIFIED AS A CFRONT
AND THE FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS FGEN BEGINS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONTG TO FCST LOW PRES FORMING
OFF THE NJ COAST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AT LEAST IN NJ AND E PA. THE
330 AM FCST REFLECTS THIS MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY.

THROUGH ABOUT 8AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NW NJ PER
FWN MTR NEAR 10Z. NOW CAST POSTED. GRIDS UPDATED FOR THE 630AM
ISSUANCE.

TODAY WILL BE VERY NICE. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SS. A FEW SPRINKLES
COULD DEVELOP DURING LATE THIS AFTN OVER NJ. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT FOR
A FEW HOURS MIDDAY INTO MID AFTN WITH TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 70S! A
GREAT DAY COMPARED TO CHILL UPCOMING THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE BLENDED
NCEP 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE AND POPS ARE THE NCEP GFS/NAM MOS
BLENDED WITH THE 21Z/29 SREF POPS WHICH LOOKED ACCURATE TO ME.

BASICALLY THE DRYING MID LVL SHOWERS WE SEE IN THE CENTRAL APPS AT
4AM SHOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND CROSSES
OUR REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN STALLS IN NJ/DE LATE THIS AFTN
AND MOISTENS UP WITH SPRINKLES BECOMING SCT HEAVIER SHOWERS BY DAYS
END IN DEL/NJ. LOW PROB OF THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE COAST
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CAN GATHER...PARTICULARLY IN
DEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NJ AND FCST A CHC POP IN SE PA/NE
MD/DE; A LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POP IN NJ AND NE PA. WSHIFT NW G15 TO
25 KT FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN TAKEN ON SEMBLANCE OF A LOW
PRES CONFIGURATION BY DAWN WITH THE LOW FORMING NEAR KBLM.

00Z/30 GFS SWI NEAR 0 WITH TT 50-52 AND KI NEAR 32 SUGGEST ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NNJ TWD 12Z SAT. WE LIKED THE
SPC DEPICTION OF THUNDER ON THEIR DAY1 BUT DID NOT ADD A SMALL CHC
OF THUNDER TO THE FCST GRIDS YET...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE EC IS NOT
AS EMPHATIC ABOUT THIS ELEMENT AS THE GFS.

PLEASE REVIEW HYDRO SECTION FOR LOW PROB OF SMALL STREAM FLOOD
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN NNJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR WEST FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHED THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON
SATURDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW GETS CUTOFF IT DIVES FURTHER SOUTH
AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST FASTER ULTIMATELY SLINGING ENERGY TOWARDS
THE COAST AND FORMS A COASTAL LOW WITH SUPPORT WITH THE FRESH
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO ITS SOUTH.

THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS IT WORKS ITS WAY UP THE COAST AND TURNS
TOWARDS THE LAND MORE ENERGY IS PUMPED INTO IT WITH THE ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL LOW. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT, AROUND -24C OVERHEAD,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT RESIDES WITH THE SURFACE LOW. UNFORTUNATELY THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE ALREADY SWOLLEN
AREAS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT THESE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH LOTS OF MID-LEVEL STILL AVAILABLE. THE ONLY
SAVING GRACE ON SUNDAY WOULD BE DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

ONCE WE GET TO MONDAY THERE IS A MASSIVE SPREAD IN OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING FORECASTED TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST BUT IF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW TO OUR WEST DOES NOT MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, AS IN THE GFS,
WE COULD BE SOCKED IN AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS EVERYDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH CIGS AOA 6000 FT ARRIVING FROM W TO E
TOWARD 12Z. COUNTRYSIDE PATCHY VARIABLE IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS PRIOR
TO MID LVL CIG ARRIVAL. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WIND BECOME SW G15-20 KTS THIS
AFTN. CHC OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 21Z....ESP NJ/DE NEAR THE FORMING
COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS...ESP
NJ/NE PA. WSHIFT NW AND BRIEFLY GUST 15-25 KTS FROM KPHL/KILG/KACY
SOUTHWARD.

PHL SPECIFIC: VFR CLEAR BECOME SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT AFTER 11Z AND CONTG
THRU THE DAY. LIGHT WIND BECOME SW G15-20 KTS FOR A TIME EARLY THIS
AFTN. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. THEN TONIGHT CIGS GEN AOA 5000
FT WITH CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE THROUGH
21Z IS ABOVE AVG; THEREAFTER JUST AVG CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DETAILS
OF THE CIGS/WINDS WITH LOW PRES FORMING NEARLY OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE FRESH AIRMASS CHANGE ON FRIDAY HELPS TO EVACUATE ANY
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE A BIT. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND RID US OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINE YET.

MAY NEED SCA FOR THE DEL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES FORMS NEAR
THE CENTRAL NJ COAST AND CAA DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.
PAST TWO CYCLES OF THE NAM SUGGEST WEILL NEED AN SCA THERE.

OUTLOOK...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMS AND RIDES TOWARDS THE
NORTH. THIS LOW WILL THEN CURL TOWARDS THE WEST AND COME ONSHORE
OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COASTAL LOW WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT FLAGS HAVE NOT
BEEN RAISED JUST YET...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
PERIOD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY WHILE
SEAS AND WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT. WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SWELLS
FROM OPHELIA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR SEAS A BIT ELEVATED
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GRIDDED 6 HR FFG IS NEAR ONE HALF INCH VCNTY LAKE HOPATCONG AT THE
BORDER OF SUSSEX/WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF .5 TO .9 INCHES OF RAIN THERE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z/1 AS
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP IN ASSN WITH FGEN AND LOW PRES
FORMATION ALONG THE NJ COAST.

NO FFA ATTM BUT IF FUTURE CYCLES HAVE MODEL AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE
BURST NNJ LATE TONIGHT...THEN AN FFA MIGHT BE OF VALUE FOR A SMALL
AREA OF NW NJ. PWAT WILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. SWI NEAR 0 WITH TT 50+
SUGGEST A BIT POTENT. SOME 00Z/30 MODELS ARE SPEWING LARGE QPF
VCNTY OF NE PA.

NCEP SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE WET...EXAMPLES:

SREF 21Z/29 FOR ABE .75 MEAN WITH MAX MEMBER 2.1. 18Z/29 GEFS HAS
MEAN 1.27 WITH A MAX OF 1.27 AND A MIN OF .75!

FOR NEWARK...GEFS HAS .8 MEAN WITH A MAX OF 1.1 AND A MIN OF
.5 WHILE 21Z/29 SREF FOR NEWARK IS .59 AND A MAX OF 2 INCHES.

THESE CYCLICALLY FAIRLY STEADY FCSTS INDICATE THAT WE CAN ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN .5 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z THIS FRI EVE AND 00Z/TUE...
MUCH OF IT THIS WEEKEND. THE 03Z/30 SREF AND 00Z/30 GEFS HAVE FCST LESS
QPF THAN LISTED ABOVE.

HWO HAS MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PHL MORNING ADVY CANCELLED...MAX WAS 8.06 348AM. REISSUED FOR THIS
AFTN REEDY-PHL AFTER REEVALUATING THE POTENTIAL. EXPECTING MAYBE
.1 TO .4 OVER FS. MIGHT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ISSUE ONLY A STMT BUT
ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. SSW FLOW THIS AFTN SHOULD ENCOURAGE
A POSITIVE DEPARTURE. CONFIDENCE ON EXCEEDING FS FOR THIS AFTN AT
REEDY AND PHL IS ABOUT 70 PCT....NOT AS HIGH AS WOULD LIKE TO BE.

THE ATLC WATERS CF SHOULD VERIFY MORE EASILY AND CONTINUES.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LAST SRF FOR THE SEASON ISSUED THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMPO DB WAS UPDATED YDY AND THIS MORNINGS CLI HAS THE CORRECT DATA.

RERABE WAS UPDATED AT 405 AM. 26+ INCHES IN 2 MONTHS!

LAST 60 DAYS IN KPHI CWA...AMAZING...WIDESPREAD 25 PLUS INCH RAINFALL
NEAR THE I95 CORRIDOR...EXTENDING FROM NE MD THRU PARTS OF N DEL...SW
NJ THEN MOST OF THE DEL VALLEY FROM PHL NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NJ WITH
SPOTTY EMBEDDED 35 TO 40 INCH INCH AMTS.

YEARLY AVERAGES ARE IN THE 40 TO 50 INCH RANGE.

AUG-SEP 2011 TOTALS AS EXAMPLES...

KRDG 18.59
KMPO 25.74
KABE 26.46
KPHL 29.43
KTTN 22.95
KILG 20.57

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DIX RADAR IS OTS. UNSURE WHEN RTS. ATTEMPTING TO CONNECT WITH ETS
WHO SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY. NCF NOTIFIED AND FTM SENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 630A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...630A

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ015-PAZ060-067>069-010915-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-010915-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-010915-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ016-010915-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-010915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-061-062-010915-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-
513 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE POOR
DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.