Areal Flood Warning 52, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL THEN SPREAD ITS
INFLUENCE INTO OUR REGION DURING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
PERIOD OF CALMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON, IRENE WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND
REMAINED A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. IT WAS MAINTAINING ITS CORE
DESPITE BEING CENTERED JUST INLAND AND WE ONLY WERE SEEING A LITTLE
BIT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WE HAD RECEIVED REPORTS
OF IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WE CONTINUED TO SEE A
DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY HANGING NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THAT
DID NOT LOOK ATTRIBUTABLE ONLY TO ELEVATION. WE THEREFORE CONTINUE
THE FORECAST OF COPIOUS RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS WERE JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE SOUTH, AND THE STORM REMAINED
OVER 200 MILES TO THE SOUTH. WE MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON THE WIND
FORECAST ALSO. WE HADN'T RECENTLY SEEN ANY SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS
ON THE RADAR, BUT THEY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AS LONG AS THE BANDS OF IRENE CONTINUE TO POUND US.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF IRENE WARMED UP CONSIDERABLY OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA THANKS TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. WITH THE STORM MOVING TO
OUR LATITUDE BY AROUND DAYBREAK, WE DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING QUITE SO
DRAMATIC, BUT WE WENT WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW CLEARING IRENE OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THIS
PACKAGE, BUT IN ANY EVENT WE EXPECT RAIN TO END DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. RATHER ROBUST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED, AND WE DID RAISE OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SOME FROM
CONTINUITY IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. CONTINUITY WAS
MAINTAINED ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS IRENE EXITS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN BUILDING EASTWARD. A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AMPLE
SUN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION MONDAY. OF NOTE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS, A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY AND PASS BY
DURING TUESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO GIVE US A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
FOR TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE THE QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS OUR REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH OUR REGION
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. FOR THE MOST PART, HPC GUIDANCE
WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED AND USED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE
TAF SITES, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. WE CONTINUE TO BACK THEM TO WEST NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES. THOSE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PART OF EACH DAY MAY YIELD POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS FOG COULD DEVELOP WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE HAVE JUST ARRIVED OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN WATERS, AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS STILL ARE FORECAST. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST WITH A ROBUST
WRAP AROUND WIND. WE MAINTAIN OUR SEAS FORECAST OF SEAS PEAKING
AROUND OR A BIT IN EXCESS OF 20 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 5 TO 9
FEET OVER THE BAY.

THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF IRENE SHOULD ALLOW
THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OUR
COASTAL WATERS DURING MONDAY. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY HIGH AS IRENE PULLS AWAY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES,
BUT THESE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH GOING INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY BY MONDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS IN THIS RANGE WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY AND POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND SUNDAY MAY
RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS FAR LATE TODAY,
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS FROM SPOTTERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS THE OUTER BANDS OF IRENE SPIN INTO THE REGION.

THE PW VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WITH 2.0-2.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
IF THE CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT AND/OR LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/BANDING WILL ADD
TO THE RAIN RATES. THE INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD
TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE
GETS TO OUR LATITUDE.

SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID
FLOODING. THE RARITAN AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACT RATHER QUICKLY AND ALSO ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
THE DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA, RANCOCAS AND PASSAIC RIVERS REACT MORE
SLOWLY, BUT THEY ALSO ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. IN
ADDITION, THE WINDSWEPT RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE TIDES
WILL TEND TO BACK WATER UP, COMPLICATING FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN
THE QPF FORECAST /6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES/ AND
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND
WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS HIGH OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE IRENE IMPACTS OUR REGION. THE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE
BAY IS OF MOST CONCERN. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM,
COASTAL FLOODING MAY VERY WELL BE AN ISSUE FOR HOURS BEFORE AND
AFTER THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS.

WITH WATER EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED UP DELAWARE BAY, FLOODING IS ALSO A
CONCERN FOR THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.

COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES MAY LINGER INTO THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND
ALONG RARITAN BAY.

A CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE TODAY, AND WINDS MAY SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST PRIOR TO THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE. THE GREATEST THREAT TO
OUR PORTION OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WOULD BE SOUTH AT TALBOT
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES, WHERE PERHAPS MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING STILL
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK STEADILY ON THE FORT DIX, NEW JERSEY
/KDIX/ DOPPLER RADAR, WHICH FAILED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR NJZ012>014-016>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MDZ008-012-015.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR MDZ019-020.
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455-470.
&&

SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DELISI/KLINE
MARINE...DELISI/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...GORSE/KLINE/GAINES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO
EQUIPMENT...IOVINO/DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-281000-
CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ012>014-017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-281000-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001>004-MDZ019-020-NJZ016-021>025-281000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 811 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ012-015-281000-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 811 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-452>455-281000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 811 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450-451-281000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-271830-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-GLOUCESTER NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-
KENT MD-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-
128 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
KENT...CAROLINE...CECIL...SALEM...CUMBERLAND...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...
QUEEN ANNE'S...TALBOT...SUSSEX...NEW CASTLE...CAPE
MAY...OCEAN...ATLANTIC AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH
DELAWARE...MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

MANY COMMUNITIES CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN DELAWARE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IRENE
MOVES CLOSER.

LAT...LON 3846 7570 3869 7583 3856 7604 3867 7636
      3887 7625 3883 7620 3918 7628 3944 7600
      3963 7615 3996 7405 3953 7440 3945 7429
      3893 7488 3892 7495 3892 7497 3916 7491
      3958 7556 3844 7505

FORECASTER:DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

MDZ015-019-020-271815-
CAROLINE MD-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...QUEEN ANNE'S
AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHORT LINE OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF EASTON TO 12 MILES EAST OF
EASTON...MOVING WEST AT 50 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR TANYARD
AROUND 155 PM...EASTON AROUND 200 PM...COPPERVILLE AROUND 205
PM...TALBOT AND ST. MICHAELS AROUND 210 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
EARLIER. BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 OR 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 3879 7638 3875 7635 3884 7630 3886 7634
      3884 7638 3891 7637 3890 7632 3886 7633
      3884 7630 3887 7625 3882 7621 3886 7622
      3888 7621 3883 7589 3871 7579 3872 7635
      3877 7640

FORECASTER:DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
236 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-020>027-271930-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-GLOUCESTER NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-
KENT MD-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-OCEAN NJ-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-
236 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...BANDS OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
KENT...CAROLINE...CECIL...SALEM...CUMBERLAND...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...
QUEEN ANNE'S...TALBOT...SUSSEX...NEW CASTLE...CAPE
MAY...OCEAN...ATLANTIC AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
BANDS OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH DELAWARE...ADJACENT EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN KENT AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE...AND IN CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES
OF MARYLAND BETWEEN NOW AND 330 PM WITH 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS IN SOME
OF THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ELSEWHERE. POWER OUTAGES MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE SHORTLY.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
EARLIER. BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION.

LAT...LON 3846 7570 3869 7583 3856 7604 3867 7636
      3884 7620 3894 7637 3955 7603 3955 7608
      3975 7409 3892 7495 3892 7497 3916 7491
      3917 7514 3951 7553 3958 7554 3958 7556
      3893 7530 3880 7507 3844 7505

FORECASTER:  DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

NJZ012-013-015-PAZ069-272100-
BUCKS PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT MERCER...MIDDLESEX...
BUCKS AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TO 18 MILES SOUTH OF NEW BRUNSWICK TO 19
MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR ROOSEVELT AROUND 415 PM...CLEARBROOK PARK...CONCORDIA...
IMLAYSTOWN...CREAM RIDGE AROUND 420 PM...HIGHTSTOWN AROUND 425 PM...
WINDSOR...ALLENTOWN AROUND 430 PM...EDINBURG AND CROSSWICKS AROUND
435 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
EARLIER. BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 4016 7434 4017 7440 4013 7446 4013 7462
      4015 7464 4017 7469 4013 7474 4013 7485
      4020 7483 4034 7475 4033 7429 4023 7430

FORECASTER: DRAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     WATER SPOUT      REHOBOTH BEACH          38.72N  75.08W
08/27/2011                   SUSSEX             DE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WATER SPOUT RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
            OFF OF REHOBOTH BEACH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100642

ROBERTSON