Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

879 
WGUS81 KPHI 110832
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

DEC001-003-005-NJC009-011-033-110838-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110311T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KENT DE-SALEM NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-SUSSEX DE-NEW CASTLE DE-CAPE MAY NJ-
332 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN CAPE MAY...SOUTHERN NEW CASTLE...SUSSEX...CUMBERLAND...
SALEM AND KENT COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3934 7443 3929 7452 3930 7463 3928 7468
      3931 7485 3942 7486 3966 7520 3968 7532
      3982 7546 4024 7522 4080 7472 4032 7474
      3977 7436 3955 7442 3949 7438 3949 7434
      3945 7429

$$

NJC001-005-007-015-019-021-027-029-035-PAC017-045-091-101-111245-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110311T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-CAMDEN NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-MERCER NJ-
DELAWARE PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-OCEAN NJ-
ATLANTIC NJ-BURLINGTON NJ-
332 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EST FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN BURLINGTON...ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTERN
OCEAN...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
PHILADELPHIA...EASTERN DELAWARE...WESTERN MERCER...GLOUCESTER...
CAMDEN...WESTERN SOMERSET...HUNTERDON AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS
COUNTIES...

AT 328 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 
THIS POINT, ABOUT ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN.  
WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOILS, MUCH OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RUNOFF 
RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW 
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS GET SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 7443 3929 7452 3930 7463 3928 7468
      3931 7485 3942 7486 3966 7520 3968 7532
      3982 7546 4024 7522 4080 7472 4032 7474
      3977 7436 3955 7442 3949 7438 3949 7434
      3945 7429

$$

KRUZDLO

255 
WGUS81 KPHI 111037
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
537 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

NJC001-005-007-015-029-111045-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110311T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-OCEAN NJ-ATLANTIC NJ-BURLINGTON NJ-
537 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN BURLINGTON...ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTERN OCEAN...GLOUCESTER
AND CAMDEN COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 4012 7476 4012 7483 4007 7488 4006 7495
      3997 7509 3998 7511 3995 7514 3989 7514
      3988 7515 3985 7525 3985 7535 3980 7542
      3982 7546 4024 7522 4080 7472 4032 7474
      4017 7468

$$

NJC019-021-027-035-PAC017-045-091-101-111245-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110311T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MERCER NJ-DELAWARE PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-
537 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EST FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...PHILADELPHIA...EASTERN DELAWARE...WESTERN MERCER...
WESTERN SOMERSET...HUNTERDON AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 535 AM EST...ABOUT ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN. WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOILS, MUCH OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO 
RUNOFF RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN 
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS GET SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 7476 4012 7483 4007 7488 4006 7495
      3997 7509 3998 7511 3995 7514 3989 7514
      3988 7515 3985 7525 3985 7535 3980 7542
      3982 7546 4024 7522 4080 7472 4032 7474
      4017 7468

$$

KRUZDLO

778 
WGUS41 KPHI 111223
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
723 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

NJC019-021-027-035-PAC017-045-091-101-111645-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110311T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MERCER NJ-DELAWARE PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-
723 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EST

* AT 722 AM EST SMALL STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM HEAVY RAIN   
  LAST NIGHT. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENED UNTIL LATER THIS    
  MORNING TO GIVE THESE SMALL STREAMS TIME TO DRAIN. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 7476 4012 7483 4007 7488 4006 7495
      3997 7509 3998 7511 3995 7514 3989 7514
      3988 7515 3985 7525 3985 7535 3980 7542
      3982 7546 4024 7522 4080 7472 4032 7474
      4017 7468

$$

JJM

858 
WGUS81 KPHI 111638
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1138 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

NJC019-021-027-035-PAC017-045-091-101-111644-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110311T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MERCER NJ-DELAWARE PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-
1138 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
PHILADELPHIA...EASTERN DELAWARE...WESTERN MERCER...WESTERN
SOMERSET...HUNTERDON AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 4012 7476 4012 7483 4007 7488 4006 7495
      3997 7509 3998 7511 3995 7514 3989 7514
      3988 7515 3985 7525 3985 7535 3980 7542
      3982 7546 4024 7522 4080 7472 4032 7474
      4017 7468

$$

HEAVENER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1104 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ANOTHER OVER VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EVEN THOUGH THE WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED, WINDS COULD STILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 MPH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. THE GUSTINESS WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE WIND SITUATION.

STILL HAVE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COMING BEFORE THE FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W. WITH ISO 4-4.5 NE PA AND N 1/4 NJ.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE
MAJORITY OF OUR WATERWAYS.

THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BY DAYBREAK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND ON SOME OF OUR SLOWER REACTING RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN ERLY IN THE PD, WITH MOST OF
THE MDLS IN AGREEMENT THAT ITS OVER EVERYWHERE BY 11/18Z, IF NOT
SOONER. THE REST OF FRIDAY THEN LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, AS A
WEAK IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPR LOW AND BRINGS A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM THROUGH BUT AFFECTS AREAS MAINLY TO OUR N. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS MORE STRONGLY IN FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S AND 30S SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REBOUND QUITE NICELY INTO THE
50S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ONE
LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF EASTERN CANADA WHILE A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MON AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TUE. A RIDGE BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL KEEP BASICALLY DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW WITH A NRLY FLOW FROM
CANADA PREVAILING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MON AND TUE WILL BE IN THE
LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE DELMARVA AND
METRO PHILADELPHIA.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA
BORDER NEXT WEEK WILL ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA WED AND PERSIST INTO THU.
IT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MILDER TEMPS. THE
HPC GRAPHICS...WHICH FAVOR THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF...WAS USED
FOR THE SYSTEM. HIGHS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND PHILADELPHIA WILL BE
IN THE LOW 50S WED AND UPPER 50S THU...READINGS WILL BE 5 OR SO
DEGREES LESS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...CONDS MVFR VARIABLE IFR IN SHOWERS VARYING INTENSITY
FROM LIGHT TO HEAVY. GUSTY ESE WINDS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 KNOTS VCNTY
KRDG KABE TO BETWEEN 33 AND 38 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING LLWS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 500 AND 2000 FT.

TONIGHT...IFR VARIABLE LIFR BAND OF INTENSE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LLWS OF 55 TO 65 KTS AS 5MB 3 PM SFC
PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVING NNE INTO CENTRAL PA SWEEPS ITS
COOL FRONT EAST AND CONCENTRATES RAIN IN A 3-6 HR WIDE BAND AHD OF
THE FRONT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD CB TO THE FCST FOR FOR SOME OF THE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KPHL S AND E IN THE 23Z-04Z TIME FRAME.
SURFACE GUSTS IN THE PHL/ILG SEWD SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH 40 KNOTS.

AFTER 05Z...HEAVY SHOWERS AND LLWS TRANSLATE SLOWLY NEWD OF OUR
TAF SITES AND ABATE BY 09Z LEAVING IFR OR LIFR IN FOG/STRATUS AND
VIRTUALLY NO WIND BY 10Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
SW WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS MIDDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE (WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KRDG AND KABE) AHEAD
WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. SW GUSTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS SATURDAY TO 25
KNOTS.

SUNDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST..

&&

.MARINE...
GALE CONTINUED.

A FEW GALE GUSTS OF 37-40KTS OCCURING AT 22Z FROM CHES LIGHT TO
DEL BAY.

BEST CHANCE OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH 0600 UTC FRIDAY (DURING THE TIME OF BEST MIXING UNDER THE
LOW INVERSION AND GRADIENT) ALONG THE WARMEST NEAR SHORE WATERS.

CONVECTIVE BURST IN DELAWARE AROUND 7 PM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER
GUSTS THIS EVENING. WATCH THE ADVANCE OF THE LIGHTNING OUT OF
VIRGINIA LATE TODAY.

AFTER 0600 UTC...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO BACK OFF A BIT AHEAD OF
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT).

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND DROP
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING (PERHAPS EVEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS). THIS MAY TEND TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE GRADIENT TRIES
TO TIGHTEN IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF WINDS DO NOT GET BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE SWELL SLOWLY SORTS ITSELF
OUT.

THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. GUSTS SHOULD GET INTO THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT AND MIXING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND RIDGE DOWN THE
COAST...BRINGING SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLW OUT FOR MOST VULNERABLE AREA THROUGH 430 AM. A NUMBER OF SMALL
STREAMS RAPIDLY APPROACHING BANKFULL FROM FAR N DEL INTO SE PA.
WE'LL EXPAND WARNINGS AND GO WITH MORE SERIOUS MAIN-STEM WARNINGS
AS IT BECOMES OBVIOUS.

RER RAIN NOW AT KABE AND POSSIBLY HEADING FOR ALL TIME MARCH DAILY
RECORD AT KABE...NEEDING JUST 1.7 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT
FOR THE 3 INCH MARK THERE.

AS OF 430 PM...

WALNUTPORT PA UP TO 2.20 INCHES LANDINGVILLE PA 2.01 INCHES. STORM
TOTALS COULD REACH 4 OR 4.5 INCHES THERE AND IN NNJ.

WE ARE MAINLY GOING WITH 2.00 TO 3.00 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION EXCEPT WE EXPECT NEAR 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF NE PA N OF KABE
AND IN N 1/4 NJ ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 78. WE'RE LOOKING AT A
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT...PROBABLY MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THE
FLOODING OF LAST MARCH 2010.

IN PENNSYLVANIA....

LEHIGH BASIN - CAUTION STAGE TO MINOR FLOODING
SCHUYLKILL RIVER BASIN - MINOR FLOODING
SOUTHEAST PA BASINS - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DELAWARE RIVER BASIN - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
CARBON/MONROE COUNTY BASINS - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING

IN NEW JERSEY...

PASSAIC BASIN - MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE
RARITAN BASIN - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH SOME MAJOR FLOODING
ASSUNPINK BASIN - MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
RANCOCAS BASIN - MINOR FLOODING

CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. CRESTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LARGE RIVERS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. IN SOME CASES ACROSS THE PASSAIC, FORECAST POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE NEXT RISE AND NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

IF YOU LIVE OR WORK IN A FLOODPLAIN WHERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR,
PLEASE USE THE EARLY PART OF TODAY TO FINISH ANY LAST MINUTE
PREPARATIONS.

VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) WEBSITE FOR
THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS (IN LOWERCASE)...

HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PHI

FOR INUNDATION MAPPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER...

HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/INUNDATION.PHP

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING POSTED AT 3PM. ODDS FOR REACHING MODERATE
THRESHOLD ARE IN MY OPINION ABOUT 85 PERCENT AT PHL AND 65 PERCENT
AT REEDY POINT. ITS NOT A LOCK SHUT CASE FOR MODERATE BUT TRENDS
ARE FAVORABLE AS SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE PILING WATER UP AT THE
UPPER END OF THE DEL BAY THIS EVENING.

PHILADELPHIA HAD A HIGHER DEPARTURE EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
REEDY POINT WITH THE STORM TIDE EXCEEDING THE THE MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLD BY LESS THAN AN INCH 8.22 VS THE FS OF 8.20. REEDY POINT
WAS HALF A FOOT UNDER FS. THIS IS POSSIBLY DUE TO THE NARROWER
CHANNELING AND EASIER FILLING OF THE BASIN NEAR PHL AND ALSO THE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOW OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.

THAT SAID...THIS PLACES PHL IN A PRETTY GOOD POSITION TO REACH
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD TOMORROW MORNING.

REEDY POINT THIS AFTERNOON WAS ABOUT .3 UNDER FS AT 230 PM.
PHL AT 512 PM WAS JUST 0.04 ABOVE MINOR THRESHOLD AND BASICALLY
COVERED IN THE WARNING. SHOULD END UP ABOUT .1 OR .15 ABOVE MINOR
THRESHOLD.

THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
THREAT REMAINS ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE DELAWARE
RIVER...WHERE FUNNELING OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD PRODUCE
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

LOCAL GUIDANCE AND THE MDL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TIDE
HEIGHTS APPROACHING MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES.
HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT REEDY POINT AROUND 230 AM FRIDAY...AND THE HIGH
TIDE OCCURS AT PHILADELPHIA CLOSER TO 530 AM FRIDAY.

CHESAPEAKE BAY...GREATEST IMPACT OF THE PERSISTENT GUSTY ESE FLOW
IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND TO OUR KNOWLEDGE NO FLOODING
OCCURRED THIS MORNING ON THE MD E SHORE. FORECASTS ARE RUNNING TO
HIGH SO FAR ON CBOFS AND SO FOR NOW...I THINK ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR
ONLY ADVY CRITERIA THIS EVENING AS IS ALREADY POSTED IN OUR PRODUCT.

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE
AT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BASED ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FORECASTING
SYSTEM OUTPUT...BOTH CAMBRIDGE AND TOLCHESTER WOULD EXCEED MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK NUMBERS DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING OCCURS BETWEEN 730 PM AND 1100 PM...FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER ROBUST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INUNDATE
OUR REGION ONCE AGAIN AND MAY PROVIDE SOME AREAS WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GREAT CHANCE AT
BREAKING SOME ONE-DAY RAINFALL RECORDS ACROSS SOME OF OUR 8 CLIMATE
SITES. THESE RECORDS ARE FOR MARCH 10 & 11.

MARCH 10 RAINFALL RECORDS:            ALL-TIME 1-DAY MARCH RECORDS:

PHL ->  1.43 (1994)                   PHL -> 2.79 (3/15/1912)
ABE ->  1.25 (1994)                   ABE -> 2.99 (3/11/1952)
ILG ->  1.50 (1902)                   ILG -> 3.21 (3/21/2000)
RDG ->  1.70 (1994)                   RDG -> 3.03 (3/20/1958)
TTN ->  1.40 (1994)                   TTN -> 3.62 (3/25/1876)
ACY ->  1.25 (1994)                   ACY -> 2.69 (3/10/2010)

MARCH 11 RAINFALL RECORDS:

PHL -> 1.69 (1952)
ABE -> 2.99 (1952)
ILG -> 1.43 (1952)
RDG -> 1.30 (1952)
TTN -> 2.19 (1901)
ACY -> 1.10 (1924)

IT APPEARS OUR REAL TIME DATA IS A CLOSE TO FIT TO THE RADAR OHP
AND STP INFORMATION.

PNS POSTED FOR A SAMPLING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST WIND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX RADAR FAILED AT 401 PM. MAY BE DOWN ALL NIGHT. WE ARE RELYING
ON MULTIPLE NEARBY RADARS INCLUDING TDWR AND NWS 88D/S

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/RPW
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF/DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-120400-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ007>010-012-015-PAZ060>062-067>069-120400-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-120400-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ008-120400-
CECIL-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-120400-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ012-015-019-020-120400-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-120400-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1047 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1028 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

DEZ001>004-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-110530-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1028 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...

LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
DURING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
DELAWARE BAY.

WIND GUSTS THIS STRONG COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS....WHICH
IN TURN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. IF YOU PLAN TO
TRAVEL THIS EVENING...BE ON THE ALERT FOR DEBRIS IN THE ROAD.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1138 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

DEZ001>004-NJZ013>027-PAZ067>071-110700-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...
OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1138 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...ANOTHER SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA...

AT 1130 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER
LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELAWARE INTO SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. LOOK FOR THE AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN TO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH 130 AM.

THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING...
AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...BE ON THE ALERT FOR
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

HAYES