Areal Flood Warning 103, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

493 
WGUS81 KPHI 290541
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NJC019-027-035-037-041-290600-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110929T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
141 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET...HUNTERDON...WESTERN MORRIS...
WARREN AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 137 AM EDT A FEW SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 
REMAINED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE WATER IN THESE BASINS WILL CONTINUE 
TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE A BRIEF HEAVY 
DOWNPOUR. ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH MINIMAL 
WATER LEVEL RISES.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7451 4094 7464 4084 7466 4072 7463
      4050 7472 4050 7503 4056 7511 4056 7519
      4074 7519 4079 7510 4084 7510 4086 7505
      4098 7513 4107 7497 4123 7484

$$

HEAVENER

083 
WGUS41 KPHI 290550
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
150 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NJC019-027-035-037-041-291200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110929T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
150 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT

* AT 143 AM EDT THE RIVER GAGE ON FLAT BROOK IN FLATBROOKVILLE IN 
SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY STILL SHOWS AN ELEVATED LEVEL AT 6.5 FEET 
WHICH IS 0.5 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL OTHER SMALL STREAMS 
REMAIN IN AN ELEVATED STATE FROM TODAYS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AS 
THE WATER LEVELS IN THESE STREAMS CONTINUES TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY 
MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. ANOTHER QUARTER 
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH MINIMAL WATER LEVEL RISES.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7451 4094 7464 4084 7466 4072 7463
      4050 7472 4050 7503 4056 7511 4056 7519
      4074 7519 4079 7510 4084 7510 4086 7505
      4098 7513 4107 7497 4123 7484

$$

HEAVENER

989 
WGUS41 KPHI 291142
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
742 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NJC019-027-035-037-041-291600-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110929T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
742 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 738 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE   
  OBSERVATIONS INDICATED ONLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE      
  REGION. HOWEVER...SOME STREAMS HAVE NOT YET CRESTED FROM THE BANDS 
  OF HEAVY RAIN THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS 
  THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON TO ALLOW TIME FOR WATER LEVELS  
  ON THESE STREAMS TO CREST AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR ALREADY 
OCCURRING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7451 4094 7464 4084 7466 4072 7463
      4050 7472 4050 7503 4056 7511 4056 7519
      4074 7519 4079 7510 4084 7510 4086 7505
      4098 7513 4107 7497 4123 7484

$$

JJM

892 
WGUS41 KPHI 291543
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1143 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NJC019-027-035-037-041-292000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110929T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
1143 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 1141 AM EDT A FEW SMALL STREAMS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING THE     
  FLAT BROOK...ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN    
  EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM TO ALLOW TIME FOR THEM TO RECEDE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. 

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7451 4094 7464 4084 7466 4072 7463
      4050 7472 4050 7503 4056 7511 4056 7519
      4074 7519 4079 7510 4084 7510 4086 7505
      4098 7513 4107 7497 4123 7484

$$

JJM

167 
WGUS41 KPHI 291950
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NJC019-027-035-037-041-300000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110930T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
350 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
  THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM 
  HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING IN RISES IN SMALL 
  STREAMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. 

* THE PEQUEST RIVER...SPRUCE RUN AND PAULINS KILL CONTINUE TO RUN 
  HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE. THE FLOOD WARNING HAS 
  BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 800 PM TO ALLOW SMALL STREAMS TO RECEDE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7451 4094 7464 4084 7466 4072 7463
      4050 7472 4050 7503 4056 7511 4056 7519
      4074 7519 4079 7510 4084 7510 4086 7505
      4098 7513 4107 7497 4123 7484

$$

HAYES

776 
WGUS81 KPHI 292356
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
756 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NJC019-027-035-037-041-300005-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FA.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110930T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
756 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM EDT FOR SMALL STREAMS IN
NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET...HUNTERDON...WESTERN MORRIS...WARREN AND
SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES...

SMALL STREAMS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE STREAMS SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO FALL. BASED ON THIS...THE FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM.

LAT...LON 4107 7451 4094 7464 4084 7466 4072 7463
      4050 7472 4050 7503 4056 7511 4056 7519
      4074 7519 4079 7510 4084 7510 4086 7505
      4098 7513 4107 7497 4123 7484

$$

HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY
MOVE OUT ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED WITH THE CONVECTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
STAYING HIGH. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SE OR S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MAV MOS
USED FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY LIKE TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONTINUED INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT A FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE USED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL PARKED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND DRIFTING SLOWLY. HWVR A STRONG SHRTWV IS FCST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE PACNW AND THEN START DIGGING SEWD INTO THE GRTLKS ON THU.
THIS SHOULD FINALLY KICK THE CUTOFF LOW OUT EWD. MODELS DISAGREE
SLGTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO, BUT THE BEST EST NOW IS THAT
THE ASSOCD COLD WILL MOVE THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THU
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SMWHT COOLER AND DRIER AMS LATER ON THU INTO
THU EVENING.

THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/T-STORMS WOULD SEEM TO BE WED NIGHT AND THU
MORN IN ASSOCN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NEG TILT UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS THE REMAINS OF THE CUTOFF LOW KICKING OUT. A SHOWER/T-STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HWVR...AS WE WILL
REMAIN IN A RATHER MOIST AND SLGTLY UNSTABLE AMS.

A SECOND CDFNT...ASSOCD WITH THE KICKER SHRTWV...WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRI MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF YET COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR
THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER FOR THIS EXTEDD FCST PD WE REMAIN IN A SMWHT
COOL TROUGHY PATN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HWVR THE CHC FOR RAIN DURG
THIS PERIOD LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. MOSTLY MVFR TODAY BUT SOME
CLEARING NOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH MAY CREATE SOME VFR AT TIMES
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THE VFR TO LAST VERY LONG
INTO THE EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATES TSTMS WITH
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME THU. VFR MAY ARRIVE LATER
THU BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFID TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL CONT THRU AT LEAST PART OF
THU...WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN PRECIP. IMPROVED CONDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WITH AN ONSHORE WIND ON THE OCEAN
AND AN 'UP THE BAY' WIND ON DELAWARE BAY. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 15 KNOTS AT THE ELEVATED PLATFORMS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO TO SRLY BY
THU MORNING AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO SWRLY BY THU AFTERNOON ON THE
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A BACK-DOOR FRONT OF SORTS IS FCST TO PUSH
IN FROM THE NE ON WED...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY THE NRN COASTAL WATERS.
PERSISTENT E TO NE WINDS COULD BUILD SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON WED AND/OR
WED NIGHT...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.

A COOL FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. ANY HIGHER SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BYE THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM
THE EXCESSIVE RAINS OF THE PAST MONTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NJ
TO COVER AREAS THAT STILL HAVE LOW FFG. FFA HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY ALONG THE OCEAN AND
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. THE
NEXT TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES...SO THE
LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER LEVELS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT WE ARE IN A PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE SITUATION. WE WILL ISSUE A CF.S FOR THE OCEAN FOR THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE (TONIGHT) SINCE LEVELS ILL ONLY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LEVELS. THE CF.S FOR THE RIVER WILL BE TAKEN DOWN BY 6PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS.../MG
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM.../MG
AVIATION...O'HARA/MG
MARINE...O'HARA/MG
HYDROLOGY...O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-291945-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ015-291945-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MERCER-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016>027-291945-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND
ADJACENT BACK BAYS DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND THE ADJACENT BACK
BAYS.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ070-071-291945-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND MAY
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-291945-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TIME FRAME
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

DEZ001-PAZ060-061-067>070-282100-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-LEHIGH PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
NEW CASTLE DE-
359 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
BERKS...BUCKS...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY AND NEW
CASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES WEST OF WEST
CHESTER...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR GLENMOORE...ELVERSON AROUND 415 PM...STOWE...CEDARVILLE
AROUND 430 PM...AMITY GARDENS...BIRDSBORO AROUND 445 PM...FLEETWOOD
AND LYONS AROUND 500 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4056 7615 4060 7540 4058 7541 4054 7535
      4055 7532 3982 7540 3979 7542 3973 7548
      3974 7612 3987 7601 3992 7601 4003 7595
      4011 7595 4014 7590 4034 7618

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ054-055-282115-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-
421 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES NORTH OF
LEHIGHTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR CHRISTMANS...WEATHERLY AROUND 430 PM...EAST
SIDE...WHITE HAVEN AROUND 445 PM AND GOULDSBORO STATE PARK AROUND
515 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4085 7542 4077 7567 4078 7570 4074 7578
      4084 7594 4089 7599 4092 7598 4100 7575
      4105 7578 4110 7577 4114 7570 4113 7564
      4123 7554 4125 7544

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

NJZ007-009-PAZ062-069-282145-
BUCKS PA-HUNTERDON NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-WARREN NJ-
448 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
BUCKS...HUNTERDON...NORTHAMPTON AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 16 MILES SOUTH OF
EASTON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR MILFORD...REVERE AROUND 500 PM...BLOOMSBURY...RIEGELSVILLE
AROUND 515 PM...ALPHA...PHILLIPSBURG AROUND 530 PM...HARMONY AND
ROXBURG AROUND 545 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4040 7505 4041 7526 4085 7535 4086 7531
      4090 7525 4091 7504

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ060-061-067-068-282200-
BERKS PA-CHESTER PA-LEHIGH PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
502 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BERKS...CHESTER...LEHIGH AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
READING...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR AMITY GARDENS...BIRDSBORO AROUND 515 PM...ST. LAWRENCE...
REIFFTON AROUND 530 PM...FLEETWOOD...LAURELDALE AROUND 545
PM...LYONS AND KUTZTOWN AROUND 600 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4064 7600 4074 7578 4079 7563 4074 7561
      4072 7556 4003 7550 4002 7595 4011 7595
      4014 7590 4019 7598 4059 7603

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
512 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ060-061-068-282215-
BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
512 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BERKS...LEHIGH AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF READING...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BALLY AROUND 530 PM...LYONS...
FLEETWOOD AROUND 545 PM...TOPTON...KUTZTOWN AROUND 600 PM...
CLAUSSVILLE AND SCHNECKSVILLE AROUND 615 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4065 7590 4069 7558 4024 7558 4024 7565
      4026 7567 4025 7570 4023 7573 4022 7581

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
529 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

PAZ054-282230-
CARBON PA-
529 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARBON COUNTY...

AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR TRESCKOW AND BEAVER MEADOWS
AROUND 545 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4074 7576 4074 7578 4084 7594 4090 7600
      4091 7600 4092 7599 4095 7588 4098 7584
      4098 7582

HAYES