Areal Flood Advisory 41, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE NUMEROUS IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO. THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF THE FRONT...
AS THE CELLS GET SOME LIFT UP AND OVER THE FRONT.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH 0000 UTC
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION OCCURRING. WHILE
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THE NEWLY DEVELOPING CELLS...
TOPS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE AND CHARGE SEPARATION TO
OCCUR...AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY.

FOR THE MOST PART...BULK SHEAR IS LOW...AND MOST OF THE CELLS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE UPDRAFTS THAT POP UP AND COME BACK DOWN WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...WITHE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. SINCE THE HAIL THREAT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY
LOW...IT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...AND
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST AS IT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT AS A WARM FRONT, MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HELP SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY WARMING UP. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING,
BRINGING EVEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
BUT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS AS A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER MAINE OR CANADA'S
MARITIME PROVINCES ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE LOW SHOULD DROP TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, REACHING OUR
LATITUDE ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY
BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD
ARRIVE IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH. WE MAY BEGIN
TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 0045Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES. THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION HAD DISSIPATED. IT WAS A RATHER
UNEVENTFUL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
IN THE KILG AND KMIV VICINITY AND NO PRECIPITATION AT OR NEAR OUR
REMAINING SIX TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 0600Z, THEN
VISIBILITY VALUES MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE. WE HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VISIBILITY VALUES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT
ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER, A LOCATION OR TWO MAY DROP INTO THE
IFR RANGE FOR A TIME. ALSO, THERE WAS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE
CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THEY MAY BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 0600Z. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET IN THE TAFS FOR
KACY AND KTTN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CLOUD DECK AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS IF NECESSARY.

FOR SATURDAY, SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER UNTIL 1200Z
OR 1300Z AT SOME LOCATIONS, ALONG WITH PERHAPS THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KACY AND KTTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE INTO THE VFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION. WE HAVE INCLUDED A CUMULONIMBUS GROUP
IN OUR TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH SITE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

BY 0045Z, THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAD PUNCHED WELL INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON-AND-OFF CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BECOMES ACTIVE. IT
IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES TO
THE WATERS AND BRINGS DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

WE ANTICIPATE A LOW BECOMING MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEANIC BEACHES AS THE MOST
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS THERE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WE
ANTICIPATE A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>024-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-111930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-
BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-025-026-111930-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE FROM LOW TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-111930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NJZ021-110000-
CUMBERLAND NJ-
707 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF MILLVILLE...STATIONARY. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BRIDGETON AND ROSENHAYN AROUND 800 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
RADAR IS ESTIMATING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM DURING THE
PAST HOUR IN THE AREA BETWEEN BRIDGETON...ROSENHAYN AND SEABROOK
FARMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3940 7498 3927 7516 3942 7531 3951 7519

FORECASTER: AMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NJZ001-007-008-110415-
MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
1115 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN
COUNTIES...

AT 1112 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HACKETTSTOWN...ALLAMUCHY AROUND
1130 PM...LONG VALLEY...ANDOVER AROUND 1145 PM...BUDD LAKE...NETCONG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...SUCCASUNNA AND MOUNT ARLINGTON AROUND 1215 AM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4069 7442 4066 7446 4067 7453 4070 7451
      4074 7456 4072 7472 4075 7485 4078 7488
      4077 7491 4079 7501 4102 7491 4104 7443
      4103 7443 4101 7440

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NJZ001-007>010-110500-
HUNTERDON NJ-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
1207 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUNTERDON...
MORRIS...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 1203 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES WEST OF MORRISTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR
SUCCASUNNA... MOUNT ARLINGTON AROUND 1215 AM...WHARTON...HOPATCONG
AROUND 1230 AM...VICTORY GARDENS...DOVER AROUND 1245 AM...ROCKAWAY
AND MOUNTAIN LAKES AROUND 100 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

LAT...LON 4070 7441 4068 7497 4101 7501 4106 7449
      4104 7449 4105 7447 4105 7444 4102 7442
      4101 7436 4074 7436

HAYES