Areal Flood Advisory 182, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL
STORM LEE WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT, APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
WILL CROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A LARGE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND BUILD GRADUALLY EASTWARD, REACHING OUR AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS NE MD AND SE ACROSS
CENTRAL DELAWARE. SMALL CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO COVER THIS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT BUT, WITH AN ONSHORE
MOIST FLOW, MANY AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO LOW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING AND BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON,
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES EVER SO
SLOWLY CLOSER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. BUT AS ALWAYS WHEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE,
THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER, ONLY REACHING THE 70S IN MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A MID LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THIS FEATURE NOT COMPLETELY CLEARING THE COAST UNTIL MONDAY. THE NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE GFS.
WITH THIS FEATURE STILL TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH ENOUGH
REMAINING MOISTURE IN PLACE, CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING MONDAY, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE KEPT AT THIS TIME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING TOWARD THE REGION DURING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN THE NAM,
GFS, AND EURO. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS EVEN EARLY THURSDAY, AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND, A DRY AND MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS TIME-FRAME, AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS
ACCEPTED AND USED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY TONIGHT. WHAT LITTLE
WIND WE WILL ENCOUNTER TONIGHT WILL BE FROM AN ONSHORE DIRECTION.
THAT MEANS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND PRE-DAWN HOURS. WHILE
SOME TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT, OTHERS COULD
DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS IS THE AREA, MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
WHERE LOWER CONDITIONS COULD BE ENCOUNTERED. BY MID OR LATE
MORNING SUNDAY, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. BUT THEN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS,
WITH LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS, WILL BE INCREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.
LIGHT NE WINDS IN TE MORNING WILL BECOME E OR EVEN SE LATER IN THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY LINGERING SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL ON OUR WATERS THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, WIND WAVES
ARE A FOOT OR LESS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN
BUT SHOULD BE WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, ALONG WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA
OUT IN THE ATLANTIC, MAY ELEVATE SEAS AND/OR WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER UNTIL 300 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, AS THE EFFECTS OF
HURRICANE KATIA FINALLY LESSEN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...O'HARA/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/O'HARA/RPW
MARINE...KLINE/O'HARA/RPW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PO
RIP CURRENTS...RPW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-016-020>023-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-
069-112215-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
602 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-112215-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
602 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-PAZ067-112215-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CHESTER-
602 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-112215-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
602 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-112215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
602 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-110100-
KENT MD-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
807 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
KENT COUNTY AND EASTERN QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND NORTHERN KENT COUNTY IN DELAWARE THIS EVENING.
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AND IT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING IN THE AREA, BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

IOVINO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

DEZ002-110215-
KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DOVER
906 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHERN KENT COUNTY IN DELAWARE AT 900 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD DOVER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING IN THE AREA, BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT
IS.

IOVINO