Winter Storm Warning 10, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 AM PST TUE NOV 15 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...AFTER TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT MODEL DATA FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE YAKIMA VALLEY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE AS
SIGNIFICANT.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY...AND A FEW
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  A WEAK RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG RIDGETOPS MAINLY
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND A LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS BEFORE FALLING
TO IFR UNDER CIGS AND PRECIPITATION VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE COLDER AIR TRAPPED WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AT KYKM BEGINNING AROUND 13Z TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
RATES PEAK A FEW HOURS LATER WITH A COUPLE INCHES TOTAL. FIRST
GUESSED 2SM BUT SEE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM TOWARDS MID TO
LATE MORNING. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE MAIN IMPACTS LATE IN
THE MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS FALLING TO
MVFR AT WORST. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM PST TUE NOV 15 2011/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A LARGE COLD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND AS
SNOW LEVELS FALL A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL AS THE BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS. RIDGETOP WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CASCADE
MOUNTAINS...WILL BE VERY STRONG ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN GRAVITY WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD MIX DOWN
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL OREGON OR THE YAKIMA VALLEY. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THUS DROPPING
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST INTO CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS MAY BE IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. YET NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND ZONAL ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
COME INLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ABUNDANT RAIN AND SNOW.  TRIMARCO

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  29  49  40 /  10  10  70  70
ALW  46  32  48  43 /  10  10  70  70
PSC  50  28  48  38 /   0   0  70  60
YKM  47  25  40  29 /  10  10  80  60
HRI  49  27  48  38 /   0  10  70  60
ELN  45  24  41  29 /  10  10  80  70
RDM  48  26  53  34 /  10  10  60  60
LGD  42  26  43  37 /  10  10  70  70
GCD  43  25  46  39 /  10  10  80  80
DLS  53  32  44  41 /  10  20  80  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAZ026-520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY WAZ027.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : YELLOW
THURSDAY : YELLOW

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

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