Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
446 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN COAST WILL PUSH
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR EAST. TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER
IN A MARINE PUSH RESULTING IN LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT AN THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE. WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY WITH EXPECTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OVER IDAHO ON THURSDAY WITH
AT BEST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY...OTHERWISE
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WINDY. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND COOL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN HAVING A TROUGH AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW
IN SOUTHERN CANADA SPLITS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
MOVING EAST. MODELS THEN HINT AT WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER
LOW MOVES WELL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MONDAY. THIS LOW
IS LOCATED TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS BUT WILL
GIVE US A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEPT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST SO HAVE CUT
BACK ON POPS. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND GIVEN RECENT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS LATEST
VERSION. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO REINTRODUCE SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ASHORE AND THROUGH
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT ASHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL START
OUT IN THE 70S THEN WARM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO MID 70S TO MID
80S. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE
6000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND WILL AFFECT KALW AND KPDT FROM 00Z TO 06Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND
CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. BREEZY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM 06Z TO 15Z THEN INCREASING
BACK TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. KDLS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  57  74  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  58  79  52  77 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  54  74  46  71 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  58  77  51  74 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  55  70  49  68 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  48  71  38  69 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  53  71  43  67 /  30  10   0  10
GCD  50  73  44  69 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  57  73  52  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : YELLOW
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

91/83/83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
536 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

UPDATED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
231415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
536 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING
     YAKIMA VALLEY

THUNDERSTORMS
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
     MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     WASHINGTON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE
     VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE
     MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE ABOVE LISTED AREAS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THE NACHES RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND ABOVE BANKFULL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING THURSDAY
     YAKIMA VALLEY

THE NACHES RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND NEAR BANKFULL.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THURSDAY IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND  WINDY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

ORZ050-222330-
WALLOWA COUNTY OR-
358 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM PDT...

AT 348 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARADISE...OR 38 MILES
SOUTH OF LEWISTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4569 11687 4588 11721 4601 11709 4600 11692
      4595 11686 4591 11686 4586 11679 4583 11678
      4582 11675 4583 11671 4580 11668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 220DEG 18KT 4587 11698

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
431 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

ORZ049-050-502-503-230000-
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OR-NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-WALLOWA COUNTY OR-
431 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WALLOWA AND EASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM PDT...

AT 423 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF LA GRANDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4499 11776 4500 11779 4502 11781 4502 11783
      4505 11786 4503 11791 4508 11808 4533 11819
      4562 11779 4530 11738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 226DEG 19KT 4532 11793

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
509 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

ORZ049-050-502-503-230045-
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OR-NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-WALLOWA COUNTY OR-
509 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON...AND WESTERN WALLOWA AND UNION COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OREGON UNTIL 545 PM PDT...

AT 458 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN UNION COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 4496 11826 4502 11852 4565 11777 4540 11749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 180DEG 0KT 4529 11802

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
543 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

ORZ044-503-507-508-230145-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
OREGON OR-SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-
543 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UMATILLA AND EASTERN
MORROW COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM PDT...

AT 537 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF PILOT ROCK...OR 24 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PENDLETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4599 11898 4596 11818 4531 11910 4550 11949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 221DEG 36KT 4550 11914

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
604 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

ORZ049-050-502-503-230200-
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OR-NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON OR-WALLOWA COUNTY OR-
604 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLOWA AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM PDT...

AT 554 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES
...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...
ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 4522 11677 4507 11713 4507 11755 4498 11757
      4499 11778 4505 11786 4499 11797 4500 11804
      4504 11810 4501 11816 4500 11822 4520 11852
      4593 11738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 219DEG 17KT 4523 11826

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