River Flood Warning 8, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
330 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT
PRECIPITATION TREND IS DOWNWARD BUT STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE CASCADES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME IS THINNING OUT WHICH ALSO INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE. HOWEVER...STILL DEALING WITH
WHAT RAIN HAS FALLEN COMBINED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MELTING
SNOW SO NUMEROUS FLOOD ADVISORY OR WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAIL.

NEXT WEATHER CONCERN COMES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL BE PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
THESE WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING WEST TO EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL FORM
AS THE FAST MOVING AIR PASSES OVER RIDGETOPS THAT WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING SO SEE PRODUCT
PDXNPWPDT FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER SO WILL SEE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE MAIN STORM TRACK
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON OR CANADA. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE EFFECT IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND EASTERN
OREGON BECAUSE THE MAIN LIFT IS TOO FAR NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
CASCADES THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A WAVE WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BRING A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. A
BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON (MODELS VARY ON EXACT TIMING) BEFORE A STRONGER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. KEPT 20-40
PERCENT POPS ON SATURDAY BECAUSE OF LACK OF CONFIDENCE PRECISE
TIMING WHEN MODELS ARE SO INCONSISTENT. COONFIELD

&&
.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT
FOG/MIST TO REDEVELOP AT KYKM TONIGHT WITH LIFR CIGS LATER IN THE
EVENING. OTHER SITES WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT INTERMITTENTLY MIX TO SURFACE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH KPSC...KALW...KPDT...KRDM...AND KBDN SEEING GUSTS 25
TO 35 KTS 04Z. 76

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RISES ON MOST AREA RIVERS
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN TAPERS OFF.  WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ALLOW RUNOFF TO MOVE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR NACHES...LOWER YAKIMA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE UMATILLA RIVER SHOULD BE
CRESTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  54  36  49 /  60  20  10  60
ALW  47  56  37  51 /  70  20  10  60
PSC  48  59  36  49 /  20  10   0  50
YKM  43  54  33  44 /  20  20   0  40
HRI  47  58  36  49 /  20  10  10  50
ELN  43  51  32  41 /  30  20  10  40
RDM  41  54  32  48 /  50  10  10  40
LGD  41  51  31  44 /  80  40  20  60
GCD  41  49  33  47 /  70  20  10  50
DLS  48  55  37  50 /  60  20  10  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST MONDAY
     ORZ507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST MONDAY ORZ044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST MONDAY ORZ042.

     SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     ORZ049-050-502-507.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UMATILLA RIVER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING ORC059.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST MONDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST MONDAY WAZ028.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST MONDAY
     WAZ026-027-520-521.

     SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     WAZ029-030-520.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KLICKITAT NEAR PITT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
     WAC039.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE YAKIMA RIVER AT PARKER AND KIONA THROUGH
     TUESDAY WAC077-005

     FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WALLA WALLA RIVER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
     WAZ028-029.

&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : RED
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

91/76/76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
101 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORIES AND FLOOD WARNINGS

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
171415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
101 PM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING
     EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS,
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
     WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

STRONG WIND
     EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AND COMBINE WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO
CONTINUE FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FLOODING MONDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
     WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

STRONG WIND MONDAY
     EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING
TO AN END BUT FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WATER SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREAS RIVER SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1131 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLOOD            TAMPICO                 46.53N 120.87W
01/16/2011                   YAKIMA             WA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR FLOODING ON AHTANUM CREEK NEAR TAMPICO DUE TO ICE
            JAM.

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N MEACHAM             45.53N 118.42W
01/16/2011  M1.95 INCH       UMATILLA           OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATE...RECEIVED ADDITIONAL 0.66 INCH RAIN PAST 2
            HOURS...FOR TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1.95 INCHES SINCE 5 PM
            YESTERDAY.

0930 AM     FLOOD            6 NW CLE ELUM           47.26N 121.02W
01/16/2011                   KITTITAS           WA   PUBLIC

            FLOODING IN THE ELK MEADOWS SUBDIVISION. SEVERAL ROAD
            CLOSED.

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EASTON                  47.24N 121.18W
01/16/2011  M2.27 INCH       KITTITAS           WA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RECEIVED 2.27 INCHES RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS...AND SNOW
            DEPTH WAS REDUCED BY 12 INCHES DURING SAME PERIOD.

&&

AA