River Flood Warning 38, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT WED JUN 1 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY.
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS. ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH
WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND
IDAHO TONIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. WILL LIKELY INCREASE POPS
AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE NEXT UPPER LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.  94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALW...RDM AND BDN
BY 19-20Z. HOWEVER...CIGS/VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW VFR DUE TO SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KRDM AND
KBDN.  WILL KEEP CB CLOUDS IN ALL TAFS BUT EACH TERMINAL AIRPORT HAS
A POTENTIAL TO SEE A T-STORM 20-03Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTN/EVE.DECREASE OVERNIGHT...THEN
BECOME EVEN STRONGER THURSDAY.  76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT WED JUN 1 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE
TODAY. AIDED BY A STRONG JET ALOFT CONDITIONS WILL BE SET UP FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE AS NUMEROUS OR AS STRONG. DO EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TO HAVE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS AND COLDER AIR WITH THE LOW WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. WOULD EXPECT THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON TO SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND TO AROUND 70 IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 50S.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE...COLUMBIA BASIN AND
THE KITTITAS VALLEY. TONIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE COLDER LOCATIONS ABOVE
FREEZING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 6000 FEET TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET BUT AREA PASSES
SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA LEAVING A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THE COOLER AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH 60S IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND 50S ELSEWHERE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL SEE A DRYING TREND BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SYSTEM AND THE NEXT
APPROACHING ONE. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASIDE FROM THE
TRI-CITIES/HANFORD AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. PERRY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE OR/CA COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE LOW KICKING NE
INTO OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  MODELS TEND TO HANDLE THESE CLOSED
LOW PATTERNS WITH SOME DIFFICULTY WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE
WITH 00Z GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM...AS THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE FASTER AT
WEAKENING THE LOW INTO AN OPEN TROUGH.  THIS COULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND
PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AS ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS...OR SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM BY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS AROUND 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGREE.  HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS.  JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  45  62  44 /  50  50  40  40
ALW  67  48  63  47 /  50  50  40  40
PSC  71  49  68  48 /  50  40  30  30
YKM  65  44  66  43 /  50  50  30  30
HRI  68  48  66  45 /  50  40  30  30
ELN  63  45  64  44 /  50  50  30  30
RDM  58  37  58  36 /  50  50  40  40
LGD  63  42  56  41 /  50  50  40  40
GCD  60  40  55  39 /  50  50  50  50
DLS  65  48  64  48 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

94/

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