River Flood Warning 12, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  RECENT HEAVY RAIN...ICE
JAMS...AND SNOW MELT RUNOFF HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE FORECAST AREA.  FLOOD WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.  SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION IN THIS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE NEXT CONCERN IS WIND.  A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
WASHINGTON...AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS OF
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS.  A SHORTWAVE MOVED
SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A 150KT NW
JET FORCED THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND BROUGHT VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.  THIS WAS EVIDENT
BY THE STRONG DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR.  DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 60-83 MPH WERE REPORTED BY SEVERAL MESONET SITES NEAR
HANFORD...AND ONE GUST OF 96 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE HANFORD
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.  IT HAS BEEN VERY WINDY
ELSEWHERE...THUS THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORIES ARE ON TRACK.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVENT WILL END EARLIER THAN 7 PM...AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE DURING THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AND ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT.  ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
RAIN AND SNOW.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE BASIN FLOOR.
HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
BASIN MAY ONLY SEE A SKIFF OF SNOW.  A COLDER AND DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.  JOHNSON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY (MODELS ARE DISAGREEING
WITH THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH SEEM TO BE TAKING A FASTER
TIMING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS). THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO RAINSHADOWING
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ON SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEFORE MORE DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000-5000 FEET
DURING THE DAY AND LOWER AT NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPSC UNTIL 18/03Z WITH WIND
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 40-45 KTS...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOCATION. KPDT...KALW...AND KYKM COULD SEE
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS...WHILE KDLS AND KRDM WILL SEE GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS WILL SEE A DECREASE IN WINDS MONDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. DMH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
AREA.  MOST FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NEAR THE UPPER REACHES OF THE UMATILLA
RIVER.  FORTUNATELY...RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...FLOODING WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT TODAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  NUMEROUS FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT.  JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  38  47  33 /  10  10  60  40
ALW  59  40  49  35 /  10  10  60  40
PSC  62  38  47  33 /   0   0  50  20
YKM  57  33  42  27 /   0   0  40  20
HRI  61  37  47  32 /   0  10  50  30
ELN  50  33  40  25 /   0  10  40  20
RDM  55  32  49  29 /   0  10  40  30
LGD  57  33  43  32 /  30  20  50  50
GCD  54  35  46  33 /  10  10  50  50
DLS  60  38  49  35 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING ORZ507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING ORZ044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING ORZ042.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ026-027-520-521.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : RED
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

85/84/84

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
226 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     FLOOD            8 SE CLIFFDELL          46.85N 120.95W
01/17/2011                   YAKIMA             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER AND MEDIA REPORT THAT THE NORTH FORK OF
            THE AHTANUM CREEK NEAR TAMPICO WAS PUSHED OUT OF ITS
            BANKS BY A DAM OF ICE AT 630 AM THIS MORNING. THERE WAS
            SOME ROAD DAMAGE. LATER TODAY SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THE
            NILE CREEK WAS OVER ITS BANKS AND POOLING ON A FOREST
            SERVICE ROAD.

&&

DMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 W BASIN CITY         46.60N 119.46W
01/16/2011  M83.00 MPH       BENTON             WA   MESONET

            WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND 61 MPH GUST TO 83 MPH. WIND GUSTS
            55-81 MPH MEASURED FREQUENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
            HOURS JAN. 17. GABLE MOUNTAIN ELEV. 1086 FEET.

1115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NW WEST RICHLAND      46.39N 119.54W
01/16/2011  M96.00 MPH       BENTON             WA   MESONET

            WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 44 MPH GUSTS TO 96 MPH. HANFORD
            EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. WIND GUSTS 60-72 MPH
            MEASURED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JAN. 17.

1215 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 22 NE SUNNYSIDE         46.58N 119.73W
01/17/2011  M70.00 MPH       BENTON             WA   MESONET

            WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 47 MPH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. SEVERAL
            MESONET SITES IN THE HANFORD DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY SITE
            MEASURED GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH AROUND THIS TIME.

0250 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W SUNNYSIDE           46.33N 120.08W
01/17/2011  M59.00 MPH       YAKIMA             WA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SOUTHWEST WIND 48 MPH GUSTS TO 59 MPH. OUTLOOK WEATHER
            STATION.

&&

MJOHNSON