Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Pendleton, OR

656 
WWUS86 KPDT 082259
RFWPDT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
359 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL OREGON WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...

.SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE RESULTING IN LITTLE RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. GRASSES
AND SHRUBS ARE VERY DRY AND WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
RAPID SPREAD AFTER IGNITION DUE TO GUSTY WINDS ALSO ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS.


ORZ630-632-638-090500-
/O.CON.KPDT.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110809T0500Z/
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE AND STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS-BAKER VALLEY-
359 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS
FIRE WEATHER ZONES OR630 OR632 AND OR638...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...IN OREGON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 630 CENTRAL
  MOUNTAINS OF OREGON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 632 SOUTHERN BLUE AND
  STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 638 BAKER VALLEY.  

* TIMING...STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LIKELY
  CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR 
  THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...3

* IMPACTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY 
  RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 
  GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...THEREBY INCREASING THE 
  DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING...LITTLE RAINFALL...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS MAY RESULT IN NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON (ALL LOWER CASE)

408 
WWUS86 KPDT 090445
RFWPDT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2011


ORZ630-632-638-090545-
/O.EXP.KPDT.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110809T0500Z/
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE AND STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS-BAKER VALLEY-
945 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES OR630...OR632 AND OR638...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS THE THREAT FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAD DIMINISHED.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION WITH SOME MINOR INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY'S INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
GREATER THAN ON SUNDAY AND THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE MORE MOISTURE AND
IT BEING FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH HAVE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD...WHICH INCLUDES PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND MOSTLY CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD ACROSS
THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH SPC'S DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH SPC HAS THEM FARTHER NORTH TODAY
(DAY 1). THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WALLOWA
AND ELKHORN MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL FORM OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL MOVE
INLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY WITH IT AND ITS PRIMARY EFFECTS WILL BE
INCREASING WIND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOST
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN/BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND IT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL DROP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A PUSH OF COOLER MARINE AIR EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO BE REPLACED BY A DRY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING A
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
HELP BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOULD HAVE DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF SENDING THE TROUGH ASHORE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE KEEPS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AND A
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE ECMWF TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HINTS AT
SOME INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THEY WILL THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT KRDM AND KBDN WITH BASES AROUND 10000
FT AGL. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
SOME CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND NE OREGON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE COULD IMPACT KRDM AND KBDN...BUT FOR NOW
THOSE TAFS HAVE CB INDICATED BEGINNING AROUND 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STAY SOUTH OF
KPDT AND KALW. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
KTS...EXCEPT AT KDLS WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO BELOW 15 KTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  88  55  85  52 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  90  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  91  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  89  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  90  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  87  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  87  46  84  44 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  87  52  84  50 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  88  52  84  50 /  30  30  10  10
DLS  86  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     ORZ042-505-506-509.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

88/83/83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
500 AM PDT MON AUG 8 2011

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
091145-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
500 AM PDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRE WEATHER WATCH
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS
     GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

THE POSSIBILITY OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL AND VERY DRY FUELS HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY IN THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE. PLEASE REFER TO
NWS HAZARD PRODUCT ID PDXRFWPDT FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THOUGH A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.