Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY. A
PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS HAS CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING AROUND HEPPNER
OREGON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING
TOWARD THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. OTHER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BUT THINK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY IS LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOWER END EVENT
WITH WINDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A DRYING
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST. 78

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...AND ANY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL OREGON
SUNDAY.  THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON
MONDAY SO THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THIS DAY AS WELL.  THE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...YET A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY.  WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH DROP ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS WA/OR ON WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE AND TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MID WEEK.  JOHNSON

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  40  70  43 /  50  30  10   0
ALW  63  46  71  47 /  60  40   0   0
PSC  69  43  77  44 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  67  38  74  42 /  20  20  10   0
HRI  67  43  75  42 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  63  43  72  41 /  30  30  10   0
RDM  59  32  67  37 /  40  20  10  10
LGD  55  38  67  38 /  80  50  10   0
GCD  57  37  69  39 /  80  50  10  10
DLS  64  46  76  44 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : YELLOW
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

78/85/85

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1220 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2011

UPDATED TO ADD MORROW COUNTY IN THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
INFORMATION

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
021415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
1220 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

FLOODING
     GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
     OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY
     BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
     FOOTHILLS OF OREGON

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RESULT IN SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.  A SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  FOR
DETAILS...REFER TO THE NWS PRODUCT PDXFLSPDT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WIND THURSDAY
     KITTITAS VALLEY

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A WIND ADVISORY (PDXNPWPDT) HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY.

MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY PUSHING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO COVER ONLY THE WALLOWA COUNTY OF EASTERN
OREGON. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO MINOR FLOODING IN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OREGON.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1234 AM PDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     FLOOD            HEPPNER                 45.35N 119.55W
06/01/2011                   MORROW             OR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROAD IS WASHED OUT ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 74
            AND HANNAH ARBUCKLE ROAD.

&&

MJOHNSON