Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OHIO TO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR MORE HEATING. REMAINDER SAME.

18Z UPDATE TO RAISE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
SINK SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW 100 BUT MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA FORECAST.

IN A WARM AND MOIST, WEAKLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE, BELIEVE THE
PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE RUC
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM 1.75 TO 2.15 INCHES, A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST FOR FRONTAL TIMING ON SATURDAY. HAVE
PUSHED POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...MORE IN
LINE WITH 09Z SREF TIMING...BUT 12Z NAM/GFS ARE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST THIS PERIOD WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED POPS AT BEST FOR NOW MONDAY AS WEAK FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE PUSH ACROSS UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH REGION WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. TEMPO GROUPS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
HEAVIER STORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT KZZV/KMGW/KHLG OVERNIGHT. WITH
CLEARING AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS TO THE NORTH, MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG. IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR DAWN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL MOSTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS EACH MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ048-057>059-
     068-069.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ031.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ003-004-012-
     021-022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-300915-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
505 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ014-020>023-029-073-075-WVZ001-002-292130-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BUTLER-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-
HANCOCK-BROOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...
UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...
EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...
STEUBENVILLE...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...
AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...
FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...
WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...
MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...
JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...
POINT MARION...TORONTO...WEIRTON
121 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA AND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH PLANS FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING
CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE SURE TO HAVE PLENTY OF WATER AND SHADE AVAILABLE.

WOODRUM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

PAZ016-023-291845-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
217 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

AT 215 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PUNXSUTAWNEY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SMICKSBURG...         DORA...               PUNXSUTAWNEY...
  GLEN CAMPBELL...      CHERRY TREE...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4082 7919 4099 7915 4093 7880 4071 7880

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

PAZ013-014-020-021-291845-
ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-LAWRENCE PA-
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ALLEGHENY...
NORTHERN BEAVER...SOUTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER
COUNTIES...

AT 219 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DARLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DARLINGTON...         BLACKHAWK...          ELLWOOD CITY...
  BEAVER FALLS...       BEAVER...             FOMBELL...
  ALIQUIPPA...          ZELIENOPLE...         WEXFORD...
  EVANS CITY...         CRANBERRY...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4083 7997 4058 8007 4070 8052 4079 8052
      4089 8048