Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

996 
WWUS51 KPBZ 121318
SVSPBZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

OHC031-157-121328-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110512T1330Z/
COSHOCTON OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
918 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TUSCARAWAS AND COSHOCTON
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4021 8152 4019 8117 4016 8118 4016 8122
      4008 8123 4001 8124 4009 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 281DEG 17KT 4014 8144

$$

OHC059-067-121330-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110512T1330Z/
GUERNSEY OH-HARRISON OH-
918 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EDT
FOR HARRISON AND GUERNSEY COUNTIES...

AT 914 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ODELL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO  
  SALT FORK STATE PARK...                     BIRMINGHAM...
  PIEDMONT...           LONDONDERRY...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR 
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY 
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN 
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4021 8152 4019 8117 4016 8118 4016 8122
      4008 8123 4001 8124 4009 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 281DEG 17KT 4014 8144

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT, MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH OHIO, WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
TONIGHT. AS THE CENTER OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMES SLOWLY
EAST FROM NEBRASKA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN EASTERN
OHIO. LESS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF
THE I-79 CORRIDOR.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY. NAM12 INDICATES A STRONG INSTABILITY (SB CAPE
AOA 3000 J/KG) AND WEAK SHEAR (25KTS 0-6KM BULK) ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN OHIO SHIFTING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WV AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PA BY THE EVENING HOURS. BELIEVE STORMS IN OHIO
WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS THEY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS EXPECTED IN TRAINING STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
OHIO WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING FROM WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STRADDLED NORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA. WITH THIS IN MIND, BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INITIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. A FEW OF THE STORMS INITIALLY COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE
SUPPORT OF FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER
06Z, CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG) REMAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A WARM NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, PLACING THE REGION IN A ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO REACH WESTERN PA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIKELY
POPS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ON
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AREA IN SOUTHERLY WARM FLOW. SFC LOW WILL
SLOWLY PULL NORTHWARD INTO OH VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREAS INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WX
GOING...WITH AFTN HRS SERVICE AS BEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPR LOW WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY AND WEAKEN AS NEW
UPR LOW DIVES SOUTH TO REPLACE THE PRIOR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT SURFACE, RADAR, AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED
WITH NAM MODEL OUTPUT AND GFS LAMP, EXPECT MAINLY VFR TODAY, THEN
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

HOWEVER, A BAND OF SCATTERED MVFR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TAF SITES NEAR KPIT THIS MORNING. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MVFR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN EASTERN OHIO, WHICH MAY ALSO AFFECT
TAF SITES. TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

RECENT ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. NIGHTTIME FOG CAN
ALSO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041-130800-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
347 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION, STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-130800-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
347 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION, STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STORMS TO CROSS THE SAME AREAS,
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WOODRUM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

OHZ039-048-121200-
COSHOCTON OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
735 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COSHOCTON AND WEST CENTRAL
TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

AT 733 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
BLISSFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.  EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4046 8202 4045 8167 4055 8166 4055 8165
      4040 8161 4035 8162 4022 8162 4021 8167
      4015 8167 4017 8202 4039 8204

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     HAIL             BAKERSVILLE             40.36N  81.65W
05/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       COSHOCTON          OH   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 812 AM 05 12 2011 AND 827 AM 05
            12 2011

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100710

JP