Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

477 
WWUS51 KPBZ 110238
SVSPBZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1038 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

WVC029-110248-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
HANCOCK WV-
1038 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HANCOCK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4038 8019 4032 8033 4032 8034 4031 8035
      4028 8043 4038 8052 4058 8052 4059 8048
      4059 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 331DEG 18KT 4044 8046

$$

PAC003-007-125-110300-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
WASHINGTON PA-ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-
1038 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR BEAVER...ALLEGHENY AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1033 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COMETTSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO  
  RACCOON CREEK STATE PARK...                 HARSHAVILLE...
  FLORENCE...           BURGETTSTOWN...       MCDONALD...

LAT...LON 4038 8019 4032 8033 4032 8034 4031 8035
      4028 8043 4038 8052 4058 8052 4059 8048
      4059 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 331DEG 18KT 4044 8046

$$

753 
WWUS51 KPBZ 110247
SVSPBZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1047 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

PAC003-007-125-110257-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
WASHINGTON PA-ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-
1047 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BEAVER...ALLEGHENY AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKEND, BUT MAY STILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS 
AND HAIL.

LAT...LON 4038 8019 4032 8033 4032 8034 4031 8035
      4028 8043 4038 8052 4058 8052 4059 8048
      4059 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 323DEG 24KT 4038 8038

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1001 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BREAK OUT
AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. WITH THE SUN SETTING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE, EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS FURTHER EAST AS ACTIVITY IS HOLDING TOGETHER FURTHER EAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SREF, NAEFS, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW PERSISTENT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THE MOISTURE-LADEN WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
FROM INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT FROM
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN THE FIRST SHOWERS WILL
REACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

USING BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT AND GFS MOS
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, CONTINUED TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
DAYTIME THURSDAY. WITH THIS GUIDANCE INDICATING A LESSENING OF RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT, OPTED TO LIKEWISE REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY, AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMING NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO, REACHING THE
WESTERN LAKES, INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY, WHICH WAS CONTINUED INTO THE LONG-TERM WEEKEND PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WERE FORECASTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES AT NIGHT AND NEARLY 10 DEGREES BY DAY, USING BLEND
OF GFS AND NAM MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED SREF MEAN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SREF, NAEFS, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION AND UPPER LOW PROVIDES LIFT.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN IN THE NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHEAST SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE OH VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL PUT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL PORTS EXCEPT ZZV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG, AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. RIVER FOG COULD DEVELOP CLOSE TO DAWN AS SKIES WILL
CLEAR. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST DURING THE
WEEKEND. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-110815-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
413 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1013 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHZ041-050-PAZ020-021-029-WVZ001-002-110300-
ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BROOKE WV-COLUMBIANA OH-HANCOCK WV-
JEFFERSON OH-WASHINGTON PA-
1013 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME WEST CENTRAL
ALLEGHENY...HANCOCK...NORTHEASTERN BROOKE...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN
BEAVER COUNTIES...

AT 1008 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EAST
LIVERPOOL...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FAIRHAVEN...HOOKSTOWN...MOSCOW...AND PORT
HOMER AROUND 1020 PM...NEW MANCHESTER...TOMLINSON RUN STATE PARK...
STRATTON...AND EMPIRE AROUND 1025 PM...TURKEYFOOT AND KENDALL AROUND
1030 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4039 8029 4030 8056 4066 8072 4073 8050