Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
445 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
TUESDAY. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATING POPS TO BETTER COVER CURRENT ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG A BOUNDARY AS SW ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO DECREASE AS THE SW
DRIFTS INTO N WV.

TONIGHT...BOTH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION
INDICATES A DRY COLUMN ABOVE 800MB. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET
GUIDANCE, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE I-80
CORRIDOR TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIDGES OF WV AND
MD. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL
ON WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND THUS CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON TUESDAY IN A DRIER AIR
MASS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN AN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL BLEND OF HPC PROGS AND 12Z MODEL RUNS BRINGS FRONT SOUTH OF
REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT LYING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FOR THE TERMINALS SOUTH OF KPIT. GENERAL VFR ELSEWHERE WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES AT KPIT AND KAGC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP CONDITIONS FOR IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING GENERAL VFR
TUESDAY AFTER FOG LIFTS.

OUTLOOK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VALLEY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
416 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-050830-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
416 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLOOD            1 E WAYNESBURG          39.90N  80.16W
07/04/2011                   GREENE             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MINOR FLOODING EAST OF WAYNESBURG ON MUDDY CREEK

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100908

RCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
344 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

PAZ073-042015-
WESTMORELAND PA-
344 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY...

AT 338 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF IRWIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...AND RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEW STANTON...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL CAN CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. ALSO PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4021 7943 4017 7957 4026 7975 4031 7964

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

PAZ031-075-WVZ022-023-042045-
FAYETTE PA-GREENE PA-MONONGALIA WV-PRESTON WV-
347 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN MONONGALIA...NORTHERN PRESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF STAR CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE..AND RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5 INCHES CAN OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STAR CITY...          MORGANTOWN...         DELLSLOW...
  CHEAT NECK...         MASONTOWN...          LAUREL RUN...
  VALLEY POINT...       HAZELTON...           BRUCETON MILLS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AND PONDING OF WATER ON
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3967 7949 3957 7963 3952 7979 3971 8009
      3976 8004

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
515 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     FLOOD            2 W KHEDIVE             39.88N  80.07W
07/04/2011                   GREENE             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            PART OF HAINES HOLLOW ROAD TO ITS INTERSECTION WITH SR
            21 FLOODED FROM MUDDY CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100909

NWS

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