Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA
WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING EAST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
SOME SHEAR NORTH OF I-70...SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS SEEM LIKELY THIS
EVENING...THUS A SEVERE TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OHIO INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WV UNTIL 1 AM.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL OF WATCH BEING EXPANDED
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
3-HR RAINFALLS OVER 2 INCHES NEEDED TO INITIATE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TNGT DUE TO RAIN EVAPORATION INTO
HUMID AIR MASS...BUT WINDS NEAR 5 KTS MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF, NAEFS, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE MIDWEST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING THE STALLED FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. SO THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL, CAN OCCUR INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO PEAK
HEATING INSTABILITY AND INCREASED LIFT DUE TO PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW DRYING AND SEASONABLY COOL AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES WERE FORECASTED
USING BLEND OF RECENT GFS MOS AND SREF MEAN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND NAEFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND LOCATION ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CURRENT STORMS OVER
OHIO WILL MOVE EAST IMPACTING MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z - 04Z.
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS.  AFTERWARD...MVFR FG IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WET GROUND.  PLAYED OVERNIGHT FORECAST SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT AIRPORTS THAT OBSERVED THOSE
CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS...HOWEVER DID INCLUDE CB IN
THE TAFS TO HEDGE THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-PAZ007-013-WVZ001>003-112300-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-MERCER-LAWRENCE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
650 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRING A RISK OF STREAM
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ068-069-PAZ014-020-021-029-031-073-075-WVZ004-012-021>023-112300-
NOBLE-MONROE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
FAYETTE-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-
650 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRING A RISK OF STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ008-009-015-016-022-023-074-076-WVZ041-112300-
GARRETT-VENANGO-FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-TUCKER-
650 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRING A RISK OF STREAM
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

MDZ001-PAZ015-016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ021>023-101945-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-CLARION PA-FAYETTE PA-FAYETTE RIDGES
PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-MARION WV-MONONGALIA
WV-PRESTON WV-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-WESTMORELAND RIDGES PA-
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...GARRETT...FAYETTE...ARMSTRONG...WESTMORELAND...
INDIANA...JEFFERSON...CLARION...PRESTON...MONONGALIA
COUNTIES.

AT 243 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED THE LINE OF STORMS FROM SOUTHERN CLARION TO MONONGALIA
COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST ABOUT 25
MPH.

BE ALERT FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO ABOUT 35 MPH AND THERE COULD BE
COULD BE DIME SIZE HAIL. ALSO...THERE WILL BE FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 4063 7884 4012 7917 4008 7926 3989 7940
      3985 7941 3981 7935 3978 7939 3972 7939
      3972 7917 3952 7926 3952 8031 4114 7926
      4106 7880

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