Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
711 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING A
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... MCS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. RAISED PROBIBILITY OF PRECIP AND CHANGED WEATHER GRIDS TO
REFLECT HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER RAISED ALSO.
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LEFT THE CURRENT
GRIDS IN PLACE REFLECTING LESS PROBIBILITY THERE.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISSCUSION FOLLOWS...
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE TODAY HAS SPAWNED AN MCS OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD REGION ESPECIALLY I-80 CORRIDOR
AND RIDGES. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING AS HIGHER DEW POINTS
SURGE NORTHEAST. EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
CAPPING PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KEPT CHC POPS HIGHEST
NORTHEAST AND RIDGES. AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK WITH CAPE
INCREASING TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHILE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS NEAR 30KTS. STORMS THAT DO FORM POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS THIS EVENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO END THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
AT BEST.

BY THURSDAY, RIDGE EROSION IS PROGGED TO BE WELL UNDERWAY VIA
CROSSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE SCENARIO PULLS A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
THE UPPER OHIO REGION AND STALLS IT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN HANG UP ACROSS REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST
COVERAGE AND TIMING DIFFICULT DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
FRONT AND WHEN ANY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ALONG IT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL WITH LOWERING
HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
AT KZZV...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING SOUTHEAST OVER TOP OF AN UPPER
RIDGE COULD TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...THEREFORE MENTION OF CB WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TERMINALS.

SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THIS
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
723 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ007-008-013-014-020-WVZ001-081130-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-
VENANGO-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-HANCOCK-
723 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-OHZ057>059-068-069-PAZ009-015-016-021>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ002>004-012-021>023-041-081130-
GARRETT-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-FOREST-CLARION-
JEFFERSON PA-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
723 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
837 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SHARON                  41.23N  80.49W
06/07/2011                   MERCER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN SHARON

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100832

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