River Flood Warning 10, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE
DRY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING SEASONAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RIDGES AT 09Z WITH SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WEST TO EAST ACROSS REGION. PRECIPITATION HAS MIXED TO
SNOW AT KZZV WITH MIXED PRECIP INTO NORTHWEST PA. RAIN ELSEWHERE
WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS LAST SURFACE WAVE TREKS UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN THE NORTH LEFT AS IS WITH HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-80. OUTSIDE OF ADVISORIES A GENERAL 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED AND WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES SOME
ICING CONDITIONS AND SPS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUED FOR THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AS LAST SLUG OF RAIN MOVES
NORTH WITH FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH A LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THROUGH PERIOD.
WITH WEATHER QUIET INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL WILL
ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE PARTICULARS...BUT A COMMON THREAD IS TO PLACE
THE GREATEST LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. THUS...WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE
PERIODS...WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...COOLING TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE IFR RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANGE OVER FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT
SNOW. EXACT TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER IS DIFFICULT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING NE. THIS
WAVE, WILL TEMPORARILY IMPEDE THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
THIS IMPEDANCE WILL ALSO SLOW THE COLDER AIR AND THUS THE CHANGE
OVER. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL HIGH IFR TO LOW MVFR CIG FORECAST
TODAY. THIS FORECAST WILL REQUIRE MUCH TWEAKING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR VIS, WILL BEGIN WITH A HIGH MVFR TO VFR FORECAST BUT
THIS TOO WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
IFR VIS IN SNOW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE CHANGE
OVER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS
TO 20KTS, AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEEDS.

THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES, HOW FAST TO END THE SNOW AND IMPROVE
CIGS. FOR NOW WILL BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC. IN THE FAR WEST VIS AND CIG
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING, HOWEVER ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PORTS, WILL HANG ON TO SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVE HOURS. THIS TOO WILL REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT LOW IS PROGGED TO AFFECT
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAVING OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RIVER FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR OTHERS AS RAINFALL
BASIN AVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BELOW PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TUSCARAWAS RIVER AT NEW
PHILADELPHIA, A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MUSKINGUM RIVER AT
COSHOCTON, AND A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT
PITTSBURGH AFFECTING ALLEGHENY COUNTY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ023-073>076.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ021>023-041.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

OHZ041-050-PAZ020>022-029-031-WVZ001>004-012-070915-
COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-
415 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY BECOME ALL
SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE
ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S...
MEANING UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ007>009-013>016-070915-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
415 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME ALL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 2 TO 5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...MEANING UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME
SNOW COVERED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ023-073>076-WVZ021>023-041-070915-
GARRETT-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
415 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...ANOTHER ONE-HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE CHANGE OVER...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE 1 TO 2 INCHES AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL
BECOME SNOW COVERED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039-040-048-049-057>059-068-069-070915-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-
NOBLE-MONROE-
415 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE ENDING THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S...MEANING UNTREATED
SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

PAZ021>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ002>004-012-021-022-061345-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
FAYETTE-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...
FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...
WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...
MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...
NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...
CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...
NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN
638 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...

A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL...A LIGHT GLAZING OF
ICE OR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE
UNTREATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY.