Tornado Warning 130, NWS Paducah, KY

780 
WWUS53 KPAH 252013
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

MOC035-181-252045-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0130.000000T0000Z-110525T2045Z/
CARTER MO-RIPLEY MO-
313 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN RIPLEY AND CARTER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 309 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GATEWOOD...ALONG THE OREGON AND RIPLEY 
COUNTY LINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL CAN 
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRIAR...HANDY...FREEMONT...
FREMONT...GRANDIN...VAN BUREN...HUNTER AND ELLSINORE.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3710 9097 3706 9096 3705 9075
      3700 9074 3693 9070 3692 9068 3682 9067
      3650 9113 3681 9112 3683 9123 3701 9124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 223DEG 35KT 3669 9111

$$

777 
WWUS53 KPAH 252021
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

MOC035-181-252045-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0130.000000T0000Z-110525T2045Z/
CARTER MO-RIPLEY MO-
321 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN RIPLEY AND CARTER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 319 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. 

THERE IS ANOTHER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM BETWEEN 
ELLSINORE AND VAN BUREN. THIS STORM WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 
MPH.

EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH BOTH STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FREEMONT...FREMONT...GRANDIN...
HUNTER...VAN BUREN AND ELLSINORE.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3710 9097 3706 9096 3705 9075
      3700 9074 3693 9070 3692 9068 3682 9067
      3650 9113 3681 9112 3683 9123 3701 9124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 223DEG 35KT 3670 9106

$$

783 
WWUS53 KPAH 252031
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

MOC035-181-252045-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0130.000000T0000Z-110525T2045Z/
CARTER MO-RIPLEY MO-
331 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN RIPLEY AND EASTERN CARTER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...

AT 328 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM NEAR THE CARTER 
AND WAYNE COUNTY LINE. THIS IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WAYNE 
COUNTY AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GRANDIN...HUNTER AND ELLSINORE.

LAT...LON 3681 9108 3705 9089 3705 9075 3700 9074
      3693 9070 3692 9068 3682 9067 3666 9091
      3667 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 223DEG 35KT 3676 9098

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
136 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER THE NEXT 10-12
HOURS OR SO.

WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF WITH ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER IMMINENT. STRONG
SFC AND UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...WITH
SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...JET DYNAMICS...AND HUGE AMOUNTS OF
CAPE AND HELICITY HAS SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND INTENSE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS (DOWNBURSTS).

LATEST RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT THESE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS SO FAR. THE LACK OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA CORRESPONDS WELL TO A POCKET OF 9-10C
WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THE THINKING IS THAT AS THE SEVERE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY RAPID AND INTENSE.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE DISCREET SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN A LINE (QLCS) OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. EACH
NEW MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE HEARTLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF. THE GFS
CRANKS OUT A BIT OF PRECIP NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
IT DROPS A FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WITH NO PRECIP SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY.

&&
.AVIATION...
SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PEAKING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT EACH TAF SITE APPEAR TO BE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE CONVECTION WILL
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

MY/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
813 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261315-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
813 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...AREA UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK...
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...AS
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE 2
OR 3 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE
STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG
TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 5
PM...AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONSULT
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRS/PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1122 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1122 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 900 PM
CDT. THE WATCH HAS LABELED THE SITUATION AS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
PEOPLE NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

WE EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.

NOW IS THE TIME TO HAVE YOUR PLANS READY. BE PREPARED NO MATTER
WHERE YOU MAY BE TODAY...WHETHER IT IS AT
SCHOOL...WORK...TRAVELING...OR ATTENDING SPECIAL EVENTS.

IF A WARNING IS ISSUED, YOU NEED A WAY TO RECEIVE THE WARNING. LISTEN
OR WATCH TV. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO.

PS/ML