Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Paducah, KY

898 
WWUS53 KPAH 200029
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
729 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

MOC023-035-223-200100-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-110420T0100Z/
WAYNE MO-CARTER MO-BUTLER MO-
729 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN BUTLER...EASTERN CARTER AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...

AT 726 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WAS 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAM A BAKER 
STATE PARK TO HUNTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

A WIND GUST TO 66 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE PIEDMONT AIRPORT IN WAYNE 
COUNTY AT 725 PM. TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR PIEDMONT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GRANDIN...MILL SPRING...ELLSINORE...
BRUSH ARBOR...LODI...WILLIAMSVILLE...GREENVILLE...HENDRICKSON...
CASCADE...WAPPAPELLO...SHOOK AND WAPPAPELLO LAKE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN TREES AND
POWER POLES. MOVE INDOORS TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9090 3706 9080 3714 9079 3718 9075
      3724 9075 3728 9074 3728 9057 3732 9055
      3732 9023 3700 9023 3683 9027 3681 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 282DEG 36KT 3732 9062 3689 9085
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

423 
WWUS53 KPAH 200048
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
748 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

MOC023-035-223-200100-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-110420T0100Z/
WAYNE MO-CARTER MO-BUTLER MO-
748 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN BUTLER...EASTERN CARTER AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...

AT 745 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS HAVE DOWNED TREES ON THE WEST SIDE 
OF GREENVILLE AT 745 PM. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM LODI TO ELLSINORE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GREENVILLE...BRUSH ARBOR...
WILLIAMSVILLE...CASCADE...WAPPAPELLO...SHOOK...WAPPAPELLO LAKE AREA
AND HENDRICKSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN TREES AND
POWER POLES. MOVE INDOORS TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9090 3706 9080 3714 9079 3718 9075
      3724 9075 3728 9074 3728 9057 3732 9055
      3732 9023 3700 9023 3683 9027 3681 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 282DEG 36KT 3728 9037 3690 9072
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
REGION...

IN WAIT MODE AT CURRENT TIME ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST INTO SW
AND CENTRAL MO. MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A VERY SHARP CAP...AS
EVIDENT ON 16Z RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS CAP SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
STORM FREE UNTIL IT WEAKENS AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE ENTIRE BAG OF SEVERE RISKS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG ALONG AND
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.

STILL IS SOME CONCERN THAT A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT/LINE OF STORMS EARLY TONIGHT. IF THIS
OCCURS AND FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CURRENT THERMAL
CAP...WE COULD END UP WITH INDIVIDUAL/DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE....ESP THIS EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A CREATE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TO SPIN UP.
THIS SITUATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY ALONG AND NW OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND IN SE MO.

THE MODELS TRENDED A BIT FASTER AND HAVE STAYED THE COURSE. BY 06Z...
THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NCNTRL INDIANA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
JUST EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THEREFORE WE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE WEDNESDAY AND NIGHT DRY GIVEN
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY AND DRAWS THE SFC BOUNDARY BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORM
WOULD LIKELY BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THU NIGHT...SO
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE
STORM TRACK CHANGES LITTLE. MODERATELY STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING THE DAILY DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY...WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMPARED TO TONIGHTS SYSTEM...THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTHWEST. IN
FACT...THE 12Z GEFS KEEPS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOVE 1000 MB AT ITS
DEEPEST POINT. FORECAST CAPES AND WIND FIELDS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE.

ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS BY STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z HPC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH. FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT WARMER AND
DRIER HPC/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WELL TO OUR WEST. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
SYSTEM...MEANING THAT MONDAY IS LOOKING WARMER AND DRIER WHILE
TUESDAY IS MORE LIKELY TO BE ACTIVE.

CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT THIS WEEKEND...WHICH THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING
TROUBLE WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AHEAD OF ADVANCING STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SCT...IF NOT WIDESPREAD...WIND GUSTS FROM 40
TO 60 KTS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...BEGINNING 00Z TO 05Z THIS EVENING
KCGI TO KPAH...04Z TO 09Z AS BEST GUESS IN TIMING FOR KEVV TO KOWB.
IFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MEFFERT/MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201015-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
646 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE UNTIL 200 AM.
REFER TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT.
INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST FROM 40 TO 50 MPH.

REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE WATCH TONIGHT.