Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Paducah, KY

553 
WWUS53 KPAH 280340
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
940 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

ILC199-280350-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0400Z/
WILLIAMSON IL-
940 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON
COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3810 8839 3791 8887 3808 8903 3836 8863
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 236DEG 61KT 3812 8873

$$

ILC055-065-081-191-280400-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0400Z/
FRANKLIN IL-HAMILTON IL-JEFFERSON IL-WAYNE IL-
940 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN HAMILTON
AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

AT 939 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MACEDONIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BELLE RIVE...DAHLGREN...
MCLEANSBORO...BELLE PRAIRIE CITY AND KEENES.

LAT...LON 3810 8839 3791 8887 3808 8903 3836 8863
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 236DEG 61KT 3812 8873
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
152 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOWARD EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING IS UP ON THE
WEB SITE...AND WILL ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE FROM SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING TO THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS BY MONDAY MORNING.
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST KEEPING TEMPS UP ALL NIGHT. WENT
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND MAINTAINED OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING A TAD THOUGH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD FALL MONDAY...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL
LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER PER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMES INTO THE PICTURE
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...USED A BLEND OF THE RUC/NAM AND SREF. LONG
TERM WAS INITIALLY AN ECMWF/GFS OPS BLEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY TSTMS...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE COMMON
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR WITH LOWER CIGS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE VARIABLE.
A WARM FRONT...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD AND OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTN.
WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE/SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION MON MRNG. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WDSPRD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
/SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE EARLY TO MID
EVE...WITH THE HAZARD SLOWLY DECREASING OVNGT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-
     CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-
     LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
     TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-
     MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE
     MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-
     HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-
     PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
203 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
203 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS AND TORNADOES. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PRODUCT
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE LARGER MAINSTREAM RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MONDAY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EARLY MONDAY. REFER TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE LARGER MAINSTREAM RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
AVAILABLE AS ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.