Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE DURING THE FIRST PERIOD WITH
HEAT AND SVR TSTM WATCH.

THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
COMBINED WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCED
HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES AT VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTICALLY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SLID SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THUS WEAKENING THE CAP. IT HAS ALSO ALLOWED
A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WAS NORTH OF OUR CWA TO BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
OUR NORTHERN BORDERS. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES
OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO GET SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
OUR CWA. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE.
HOWEVER...AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION...OUTSIDE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS...BUT COULD SEE MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN NRN
SECTIONS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SWD INTO THIS AREA AND SUSTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-
     PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DB/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
544 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-132245-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
544 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FOR THAT PART
OF THE QUAD STATE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS TO ROCKPORT INDIANA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF THE QUAD STATE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO FULTON KENTUCKY...IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THE RISK AREA MAY PULSE
UP TO SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A CONCERN...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF THE QUAD
STATE REGION GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS
TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY THROUGH 9 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR DETAILS AND PRECAUTIONS.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT
CARMI...THE BIG MUDDY RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SEVERAL
POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTH OF THE CONFLUENCE WITH
THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL
OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...MOST
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER AT CARMI...THE BIG MUDDY RIVER IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
AND SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTH OF THE
CONFLUENCE WITH THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD STATE REGION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITESVILLE             37.68N 86.87W
07/12/2011                   DAVIESS            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN AND A ROOF OFF OF A BARN. LIGHTNING
            STRIKES HOUSE AS WELL. REPORTED BY A WEHT VIEWER. TIME
            APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ILZ076-122115-
WAYNE IL-
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR FAIRFIELD...AND STRONG
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
FAIRFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE GOLDEN GATE.

IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
443 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

ILZ077-078-083-INZ081-082-085-087-088-122230-
WABASH IL-WHITE IL-EDWARDS IL-SPENCER IN-POSEY IN-PIKE IN-GIBSON IN-
WARRICK IN-
443 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EDWARDS...NORTHEASTERN WHITE AND
WABASH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN WARRICK...
GIBSON...SOUTHERN PIKE...NORTHEASTERN POSEY AND NORTHERN SPENCER
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE SPURGEON...PRINCETON...MOUNT
CARMEL...OAKLAND CITY...WINSLOW...AND DALE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY RESULT IN STANDING
WATER ON AREA ROADS. WATER LEVELS IN SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND IN
DITCHES MAY RISE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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