Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
712 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT GRID AND PUBLIC PRODUCT UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD SE IL/SW IN/NW KY. RAISED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AS THE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INTO THE CWFA. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE
THE POPS WERE LEFT PRETTY MUCH ALONE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
INTO FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. DID ADJUST CLOUD
COVER AS WELL...BUT DID NOT ADJUST TEMPS YET. THE KEVV TRI-STATE
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THOUGH FOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW...IS THE ORIGINAL DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER
AND THE UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL WAVE. THROUGH THE
DAY...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
THE REGION FROM THE EAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS KEVV TRI-STATE TO LOWEST
POPS OZARK FOOTHILL REGION OF SE MISSOURI. GIVEN THE NEW SPC DAY
1 SLIGHT RISK COVERS MOST OF THE CWFA...WHICH MAY BE A TAD OVER
DONE...AND THE FACT THE GENERAL THUNDER LINE EXTENDS WEST OF OUR
CWFA...WILL GO AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SE MISSOURI AS WELL. IF NOTHING ELSE...CONVECTION TO THE EAST
COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WEST OF THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ISOLD TSRA. AM NOT SOLD WE WILL
SEE ANYTHING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME...BUT INCLUDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SEEMS WARRANTED.

KEPT A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DRY OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO RETREAT NE AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SUPPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR CONVECTION AT THIS TIME INTO MONDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE...THE
CHANCE IS AOB 10 PERCENT.

NOT MUCH NEW TO REPORT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE MEANS BACK TO THE HEAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. BUT MID 90S STILL
LOOKS LIKELY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL LONG RANGE MODELS
TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SMALL
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING HAZE AND FOG WILL BURN OFF...THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WERE NORTH OF KSTL
AROUND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
SERVE TO INITIATE NEW STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PROCESS
IS LIKELY TO BE HAPHAZARD...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MORE TOWARD THE
KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES. STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AFTER DARK. SOME LIGHT FOG IS AGAIN LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-061000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
328 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 67. THE MAIN HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY
WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 95 AND 100.

REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST ON
AREA RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST ON
AREA RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

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