Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUSLY ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/
WINDS ARE REALLY CRANKING EARLY THIS MORNING...ESP OVER NE AR AND
SRN IL AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT/CONVECTION. MARION IL RECENTLY
GUSTED TO 55 KTS AND HARRISBURG IL GUSTED TO 50. MOST SLY GUSTS
REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS RANGE..SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND
ADVISORY AS OPPOSED TO HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS ARE ALSO CRANKING
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH BACK IN NW AR/SW MO...SO
DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM ALL AREAS. CAN
TRIM FROM WEST OT EAST LATER IF NEED BE. TEMPS UNUSUALLY WARM WITH
THE CLOUD AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S.
ACTUALLY HIT 80 RECENTLY AT CARMI IL.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY...ONGOING CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT IN MO HAS PRODUCED 1 INCH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH FROM TIME TO TIME...ESP IN BOWING SEGMENTS AND THE
WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT
SOME TORNADO ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESP IF THE STORMS
BECOME SURFACE ROOTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHEST SVR WEATHER
RISK WILL BE OVER SE MO AND SRN IL FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT INTO WRN KY AND SW IN THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KY...AS THE SYSTEM REALLY BLOWS UP
LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH THOSE BLUSTERY NW WINDS. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN TUE/WED WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WILL LIKELY SEE 70S AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE MUDDLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH TAF SITES...INCLUSION OF IFR CEILINGS WAS NECESSARY ON AN
INTERMITTENT BASIS WAS NECESSARY ALONG AND WITHIN 1-3 HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER EACH TAF SITE. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT EARLY ON...A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW /MVFR TO LOW VFR/ CEILINGS AND MVFR TO VFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE KPAH/KOWB TAF SITES.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED BEYOND ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY
21Z TODAY...A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
DUSK...WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY BETWEEN
03Z-06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/SHORT TERM PUBLIC...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
427 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
427 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION MONDAY. THIS RISK WILL COME VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM
40 TO 50 MPH MAY RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY...MAINLY FROM AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY INTO THE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AND THEN FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041200-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
313 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...LOCAL WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LIKELY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS...

STRONG WIND GUSTS...RANGING BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH...WITH LOCAL WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WELL AHEAD OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME.

THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ANNA AND EDDYVILLE ILLINOIS...ONWARD TO
MARION...DAWSON SPRINGS AND ELKTON KENTUCKY. PERSONS LIVING IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL
BE SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.

TRAVEL ON INTERSTATES 57...64 AND PENNYRILE PARKWAY CORRIDOR WILL BE
WILL BE CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK...BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS MAY
CAUSE EXTREME DIFFICULTY IN STEERING FOR DRIVERS OF TRACTOR
TRAILERS...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. DRIVERS OF SMALLER VEHICLES MAY
FIND TRAVEL DIFFICULT AS WELL.

THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE LIMBS TO FALL ON POWER LINES...CAUSING BRIEF
POWER OUTAGES. SOME DISEASED TREES OR TREES WITH SHALLOW ROOTS MAY
TOPPLE TO THE GROUND. UNSECURED OBJECTS LEFT OUTSIDE MAY BE TOSSED
AROUND AND WEAKENED OR DAMAGED BUILDINGS MAY ALSO TOPPLE OVER IN
THE STRONG WINDS.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE CLOSER.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO AN HOUR
BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WIDESPREAD GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH.

FINALLY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH 7 AM CDT.

SMITH