Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1252 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND (OR TWO) OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING A BRIEF PAUSE TODAY.
THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL RIP AND CURL NORTHWARD ACROSS MO TONIGHT...THEN
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW. THESE 100+KT
WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP FOCUS/ENHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SVR WX OUTBREAK IN THE FORM OF A BOW ECHO/DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR SPIN-OFF TORNADOES ACROSS OUR AREA. STRONG MID LEVEL
ASCENT RATES MAY AID IN LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...HIGH PW'S AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FUELING WILL
RESULT IN MAX PRECIP EFFICIENCY STORMS...PRODUCING ANOTHER 2-4"
SWATH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY UPWARDS TO 5-6" NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO ALL THE ALREADY FALLEN RAIN
ON FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS...WITH STORM TOTAL PCPN ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3-4" ON THE LOW END ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...TO 10-12" ON THE HIGH END ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE ONLY
ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE HIGH PRECIP ZONE TO COME IS IT MAY FALL
HEAVIEST OVER WESTERN KY/ESP THE PENNYRILE...WHERE TO DATE THE
RELATIVELY LOWER TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. STILL ALL GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DEFINITIVELY CONTINUES THRU
00Z THURSDAY.

ONE OTHER COMPONENT OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM PARTICULARLY LATE
TONIGHT...THRU TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...IS THE LIFT OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/ITS TRACK AND THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT. BELIEVE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK ON HWO AND HEADLINE IF NECESSARY.

RELIEF OCCURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE BROUGHT
SOUTH FROM THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FA...QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NEXT
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL PAUSE UNTIL SAT PM/SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY SINKS IN AND STALLS BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MONDAY. WE'VE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS TIME
FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BREAK IN THE MVFR DECK MAY OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

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