Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. UPDATED PUBLIC
PRODUCTS...MAINLY TO KEEP UP WITH FRONTAL POSITIONING AND IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. LOOKS LIKE BEST SEVERE SHOT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HISTORICAL TYPE OF EVENT SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OHIO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EASTER WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LAST
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ESP IN REGARDS TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ON AND OFF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ALREADY HAVE RADAR/SATELLITE AND SOME ACTUAL REPORTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS DEEP/RICH SWLY FLOW
REGIME MAINTAINS ITSELF...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DURING THE
PERIOD.

HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR POPLAR
BLUFF...WITH WATER REPORTED IN SOME HOMES. SAME AREA IS GETTING
POUNDED BY ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES...SO BELIEVE EMERGENCY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
EASTER MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE OT SHOW CLOUD TO
COOLING MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AM QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THOSE VENTURING OUT FOR EASTER MORNING
SERVICES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS.

YET ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX IS FORMING OUT IN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON OVER ALL EXCEPT THE
SRN PENNYRILE....ESP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING...WHEN A
STRONGER SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. NEGATIVELY
TILTED STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ADD TO OVERALL UPPER
DIVERGENCE/ASCENT AND MAY BE THE NEXT CHC OF EXTENSIVE SEVERE
STORM OUTBREAK. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING OVER 1.65 INCHES...SPELLS VERY BAD NEWS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.

DUE TO ALL MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT LEAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY A MAJOR EVENT
IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THINGS ARE ONLY GOING TO WORSEN.

IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUE MORNING....IT SHOULD STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION...THEN RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED TIME
FRAME...AND BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS.

VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EASTER WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. ALREADY BIG SPRINGS AND FARMINGTON MO REPORTING
OVER 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLY ANOTHER 7 TO 10 INCHES ON THE
WAY....AND MANY RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD. PAINTS AN UGLY PICTURE
FOR SURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
KCGI CURRENTLY IS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ITS NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
ANOTHER ROUND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDER MAY SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-
     HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
542 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWEST OF A MURRAY KENTUCKY TO
GREENVILE KENTUCKY LINE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION. SOME OF THIS RISK
WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT TODAY...WHICH WOULD
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. IF STORMS DO ERUPT...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND LEVELS
WILL ONLY BE GOING UP WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER
OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN
ALL AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MURRAY KENTUCKY TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY
LINE. MULTIPLE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS SEVERAL
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MONDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
EXTENDS INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND FLOODING
WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH .

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED EACH DAY FROM THIS
EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. SPOTTERS SHOULD
ALSO REPORT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS THEY ENCOUNTER DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

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