River Flood Warning 75, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
710 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH WATCH IN EFFECT AND ONGOING WEATHER...WILL KEEP THIS AS BRIEF
AS POSSIBLE.

SYNOPTICALLY THIS MORNING WE HAVE A WNW-ESE ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...AN MCS IS CURRENTLY PLOWING
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. BETWEEN 12-18Z THIS MORNING
WHATS LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA...THEN FROM 18-00Z THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED OVER THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. CONSEQUENTLY LATE
TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THOSE
AREAS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BACK ACROSS OUR
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A BIT AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
THE REGION DRY AND WARMER FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING PRECIP CHANCES
STARTING NEXT SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY
WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...RELIED MAINLY ON RADAR
TRENDS...WHICH INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER COULD PRODUCE NEW CONVECTION AT ANY TIME. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR NEW STORMS IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY KPAH AREA. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
THROUGH THE DAY TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS AS
NEW DATA ARRIVES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JAP
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
534 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF THE REGION FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE TODAY...THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME AREA RIVERS. SEE RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE REGION HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM RISK.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME AREA RIVERS. SEE RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED OFF AND ON OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS AND ANY
FLOODING REPORTS SHOULD ALSO BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
915 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     FLASH FLOOD      METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
06/26/2011                   MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS SOME MAIN AND SIDE ROADS IN METROPOLIS
            ARE BEGINNING TO FLOOD. SPOTTER ALSO REPORTS WATER ON THE
            ROAD IS ESTIMATED AT 2 INCHES.

&&

JAYSONW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1057 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANDVIEW               37.94N 86.98W
06/26/2011                   SPENCER            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE MOSTLY TO TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE TO FIRE
            STATION DOOR AND SOME ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

JAYSONW