River Flood Warning 37, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
752 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSON. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE SLOW DEPARTURE EASTWARD...SCOURING OUT
REMAINING CLOUDS GRADUALLY THROUGH AM HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IN ITS WAKE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT...COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW AM. 60S TODAY TO RETURN TO 70S
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SLYS RETURN TO THE COLUMN.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER ON ITS APPROACH WITH
THE 00Z MODEL DIGEST. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY THE TIMING
OF ONSET...HOLDING OFF THURSDAY POPS AND SPLITTING THURSDAY NIGHT
GRIDS INTO FIRST HALF/2ND HALF OF NIGHT...SPIKING POPS IN THE 2ND
HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER TIMING. THIS WILL YIELD OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS/RAINS...WITH UPPER TROF NEGATIVELY TILTING
BUT LOW STARTING TO STACK AND FRONT HINTING AT SOME OCCLUSION. THE
FILLING/STACKING NATURE CERTAINLY OF THE GFS COULD END UP HOLDING
POPS THRU FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SEEMS SUFFICIENTLY
REFLECTED IN INHERITED PACKAGE AND BEING THIS IS DAY 5 AND BEYOND WE
ARE GOING TO LEAVE IT AS IS AT THIS POINT AND AWAIT A LITTLE MORE
MODEL CLARIFICATION ON THE SYSTEM'S ULTIMATE EVOLUTION BEFORE MAKING
SUCH LONGER TERM FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE SOME FOG FORMATION NEAR SUNRISE IN THE USUAL FOG-PRONE
AREAS SUCH AS THE KCGI TERMINAL. THIS MAY END UP BEING INCLUDED IN A
LATER TAF PACKAGE. BRISK NRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
323 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG THAT IS LOCALLY DENSE IS POSSIBLE. RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...REFER TO STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINS.

CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING DETAILS CAN BE FOUND ON THE LATEST
STATEMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WEATHER SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL ACTIVATION REQUEST.