River Flood Warning 10, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM DEPARTED WITH FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE...SHOULD
WANE/DISSIPATE BY 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS
THE SAME. DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS AND HOLDS THRU SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT/BY 12Z SUN...MOISTURE ADVECTION ON DEEPENING SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL KICK IN. RIGHT NOW...ONLY GFS MODELS QPF BY 12Z
SUN. THEREFORE WE'LL HOLD OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY...WHEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES THRU PLAINS AND LIFTS WARM FRONT INTO
OUR VICINITY. STRONGER ASCENT ON WARM AIR UPGLIDE WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED AND EVEN SURFACE BASED INDICES
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. PWS AGAIN APPROACH 99TH PERCENTILE
BY 00Z-06Z MONDAY...SO HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SYSTEM MOVES THRU MOST OF FA BY 12Z MON...GFS BEING A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM BUT BOTH MODELS GETTING BRUNT OF SYSTEM
THRU ALL BUT FAR EAST BY MON AM. THUS WE BROKE MON POP INTO 6 HOUR
PERIODS AND CARRIED THRU AM HOURS ONLY/EAST...WITH WRAP AROUND
LIFTING THRU AND EFFECTIVELY POPS ENDING BY 18Z. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT AND DRIER AIR AGAIN TAKES OVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM AS THEY SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
GRADUALLY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY AS TO WHEN THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. EARLIEST TIME WOULD BE AROUND 00Z...AND THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR CIGS WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. THIS
FORECAST WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER FORECASTS...STICKING WITH
CLEARING AROUND 00Z. A MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS DEPART.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
316 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND RELATED STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED
FLOODING INFORMATION. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL EXISTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.