Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

405 
WWUS83 KPAH 231952
RFWPAH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

.A DRY COLD FRONT SWEPT EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
PLUMMETING RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MOZ086-098-100-106>110-240000-
/O.CON.KPAH.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110324T0000Z/
BOLLINGER-SHANNON-WAYNE MO-OREGON-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
252 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

THIS RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL TO DEXTER...INCLUDING THE
MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST.

WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS HAVE
PLUMMETED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 12 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

501 
WWUS83 KPAH 232350
RFWPAH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS.

MOZ086-098-100-106>110-240200-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110324T0200Z/
BOLLINGER-SHANNON-WAYNE MO-OREGON-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
650 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

THIS RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL TO DEXTER...INCLUDING THE
MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST.

AS OF 6 PM...CONDITIONS WERE STILL QUITE DRY AND WINDY ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MUCH
COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION THIS EVENING...IT WILL
TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR THE HUMIDITIES TO IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO
OFFSET THE CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

DRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION AND ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL BE THREE WEATHER SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
DONT REALLY START TO COME TOGETHER UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...THE GFS
IS HINTING AS PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY...BUT THE GENERAL
CONCENSUS AMONG THE OTHER MODELS IS FOR A DRY DAY...SO WENT WITH
THE MAJORITY.

PRECIP BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS. AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD OUT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS IT EASTWARD ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM NUMBER TWO. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT. OVERRUNNING
PRECIP STARTS WORKING BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
THIRD SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT FOR THIS
ISSUANCE WILL ONLY MAKE CHANGES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NATIONAL FOREST PERSONNEL AND NEIGHBORING
WFOS...RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE MARK TWAIN NATIONAL
FOREST IN SE MISSOURI. THE 06Z NAM 2 METER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
YIELD RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT AROUND 21Z IN THAT AREA. GIVEN
THE VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD IMPACT SURFACE
CONDITIONS. FURTHER EAST...IT APPEARS THE DRYING TREND WILL BE TOO
LATE TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT 11Z WILL BEHAVE
MORE LIKE A DRY LINE TODAY AS IT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THE DRY LINE MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS AS DIURNAL HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY IN
KEVV/KOWB AREAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS IN
THE MVFR RANGE MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JAP
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-240830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
323 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY.

FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST. GUSTY
WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE
OHIO...WABASH...LITTLE WABASH...GREEN...AND PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING. REFER TO FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JP