Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Union County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
242 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS GOOD RETURNS IN CENTRAL MO...EXTENDING AS FAR
EASTWARD AS OUR NEAR NORTHWESTERN DOORSTEP A COUPLE COUNTIES
REMOVED. THIS IS MORE ROBUST THAN MOST 00Z MODELING. HOWEVER THE
TIME/HEIGHTS DO SHOW STRONG OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH SOME 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 297-303K/SAME
GENERAL LAYER. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRECURSING OVERRUNNING EVENT
THAT WILL GET GOING IN MORE EARNEST ABOUT 24-36 HOURS FROM NOW.
WE RESPONDED WITH EXPANSION OF THE SMALL WRN FA POP...AND THIS
INCLUDES SOME MENTION OF SLEET VERY EARLY THIS AM. HOWEVER THE DRY
LAYER BELOW ABOUT 750 MB SHOULD MAKE IT A MINIMAL/LOW CHANCE
EVENT...DESPITE POTENTIAL 40+DBZ RETURNS AS SEEN JUST UPSTREAM.

WHILE THE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND
DEEPEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE. THAT'LL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD
SOAKING RAINS...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP...WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE SRN 1/3 FA. PWS STILL RUNNING AT 99% OF
NORMS...WITH OMEGA REALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE COLLABORATED/ISSUED A
FFA FOR SRN KY/EXTREME SEMO THRU THE EVENT...WHICH WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD 2-3" AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINERS
PRODUCING MORE. NOTE SWODY2 POSTS MDT RISK AREA JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL. NAM STILL YIELDS THE MORE NRN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...ACROSS HEART OF FA...WHILE GFS TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
SRN DOORSTEP. FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD YIELD BETTER TSM/SVR
THREAT WHILE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK PUSHES HEAVY RAIN THREAT FURTHER
SOUTH AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD HAILERS/WIND
DAMAGING STORMS IN SRN PTNS FA/ESP SRN KY AS SYSTEM RACES ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HRS WED...AND
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE SE. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN THE LATE
AFTN...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER DARK. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID.

IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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